Łukasz Grzegorczyk: Professor, did it gotta end this way?
Prof. Tomasz Słomka: There are different scenarios that we have considered and many things may have had different finals. For me, the first genetic thing was what this coalition was like.
What was she like?
It is simply a coalition of the oldest organization in the Polish strategy with a centre-conservative pedigree with a fresh party, which followed the standards with the slogan that the strategy must be absolutely changed. So she was actually besides targeted at the PSL as an component of the old order. They were united by their political situation.
It turned out that the centre of Holownia with the centre-righting PSL was the optimal solution for the election, due to the fact that otherwise it could not be done. A genetic mistake made it essential to look at this coalition as something unstable.
So you're truly not surprised?
The second thing is leadership. Simon Holovnia competed in the presidential election and could come up with a run for office. possibly the PSL had a somewhat different imagination for this election, but at Holownia, which had been preparing for these elections for 5 years, it could not have been done differently.
It was already a problem, on the another hand, the PSL did not even want to support the Holovnia in the campaign. After all, neither organizationally nor financially there was so much help. They signed a deal that supposedly established a coalition for 4 elections. And possibly they knew very well that it was time to nest on the political stage, especially for Holownia, and then see what would happen.
A strategical alliance, but temporary?
Yeah, the more that there's 1 more thing I'm emphasizing. I think that's the circumstantial feature of the PSL. This is simply a organization that takes large care of its identity and separateness.
And unsinkable.
They are convinced that despite the various political turmoil that can happen, this organization will last and even with a minimal score, but they will cross the electoral threshold and be able to cope. They may have felt the fear that there would be any melting that Holownia's failures, as evidenced by the consequence in the presidential election, would besides begin to push the PSL political phase off, and they must defend their identity.
Did they truly feel the fear of failure?
Yes, due to the fact that it was not known what the effect of the action of Poland 2050 and Szymon Holownia would be. Their clover is simply a recognizable symbol, they are convinced they can handle it. I think at this point, the alleged independency movement at the PSL gained the majority. There were differences between Poland 2050 and PSL. The Holovnia amazed them many times with various initiatives, so the PSL independents most likely concluded that it was better to go separately.
The support of Holown is simply a phenomenon. More recently, respective 100 1000 viewers were watching broadcasts from the session of the Sejm. The Holowna consequence in the presidential election was, however, a brutal verification.
Nothing can last forever. This celebrated "sejmflix", watching the meetings of the fresh Sejm even in cinema rooms, was a very interesting ripple. A wave of interest in political life for 2 reasons. First, especially for young people, due to the fact that something has changed. After 8 years it seemed indestructible to PiS, there comes alternate power.
Secondly, there comes a marshal who has a completely different language in his politics and that may appeal to him due to the fact that it is simply a language from tv shows. On the another hand, specified situations are boring. There were no major programme initiatives of Poland 2050, due to the fact that what could be shown as their standard visionary task from the erstwhile period of government? Not much.
Internet users pull out the 3rd Way brochure, in which there were 12 promises. The sixth 1 was, "Women, forward!" Sounds like they don't know what they're trying to tell people.
"Women Forward" can be on the 1 hand a very interesting slogan for promoting women in politics. On the another hand, specified a slogan is controversial. due to the fact that what is it, women as ferns or as ornaments? This is an understated issue, and it may rise doubts as to what is truly at the heart of this.
Poland 2050 entered a niche. There was a request for a group speaking a somewhat different language, but it did not truly prove the request for its existence.
Simon Holown's popularity isn't enough, is it?
It's clear, even though it's a fact, tv is now watching less and less people. Besides, they turned out to be better than Hollow in online games.
Sławomir Mentzen?
Even Joanna Senyszyn attracts more spectators than Marshal Hołownia, who speaks a good language, but a small over and over again and does not truly bring anything breakthrough.
It would seem that building the ranges could be great.
I have the impression that Simon Holovnia would be a very good spokesperson for the government if he had inactive good facilities. But in fact, as a leader, he doesn't say anything revealing, so it doesn't gotta delight voters at all.
Why was Holownia this start in the presidential election?
It is not known since yesterday that in the Polish presidential elections you can gain a lot and effort to stabilise on the political stage. delight note that on the basis of the presidential election, the Polish Reconstruction Movement Jan Olszewski was created, after its election consequence in 1995.
The Citizen Platform was born on the board of Andrzej Olechowski's success in the 2000 election. This encouraged environments focused on AWS and the Union of Freedom to produce a fresh political option in the form of PO. But presidential elections can besides be part of the end of a career.
In the case of Holnia, is that siren singing?
So far, Simon Holovnia is the 1 who lost at this election. He did not strengthen his group, gained no fresh supporters, but reduced his position profoundly against erstwhile presidential elections, but besides against the results of the 3rd Way in erstwhile parliamentary elections.
After the election, Holovnia abruptly started talking publically about the anticipation of breaking the coalition. A cry of despair?
This is the component of amazing the coalition with different decisions. Did the PSL endanger to leave the coalition?
I don't remember.
The PSL had no more serious minute to propose that they were approaching a certain boundary in the current arrangement. The hoarding home frequently expressed its opinion as the voice of the 3rd Way. It must have been a burden for PSL.
Is this the minute erstwhile we should be considering Donald Tusk's limit of patience?
The limit of Donald Tusk's patience must be arithmetic. The belief that the government must proceed and cannot afford besides hasty removal of political groups from the government, due to the fact that the situation in the last 2 years of its word may be unpredictable. It's going to be a time of deluded agreement, but Donald Tusk is not going to be looking for an excuse to remove Simon Holovnia from the coalition.
Poland 2050 will last after this split?
I see 3 scenarios for her. The first is associated with the phenomenon of the "supernova" party. The point is that, all now and then, various political groups appear in the electoral system, which enter into a certain mission and fall into social need. These are sometimes more liberal, sometimes conservative parties, besides populist. They gain applause and support, enter parliament, but rapidly exhaust their potential. And the first script for Holowna could mean that Poland 2050 by 2027 would vanish from the political stage.
The second and 3rd scenarios foretell disaster, too?
In the second variant after the break-up with PSL, Holownia organization seeks a fresh identity, a redefining that may appeal to voters. But to be honest, I do not know what she could put on the table, so that there would be a renaissance of reasoning that Poland 2050 is an essential component of the political puzzle.
The 3rd script is that Poland 2050 is melting. 1 part flows distant to the Citizens' Coalition, due to the fact that naturally they combine certain program elements, and some, possibly the more conservative one, will go to the PSL. A bit like the "govin" agreement that was absorbed by the PSL. My scenarios do not foretell Poland 2050 as a key component for the post-election puzzle in 2027. I'd alternatively look at the Confederacy as an crucial player.
In the second scenario, Simon Holovnia would most likely gotta stand on his head and start speaking in concrete terms to voters.
I don't know if he'll learn. Clearly, he likes his way of political communicative and is simply a fan of himself. A fan of speaking journalistic language about various problems. This isn't Sławomir Mentzen or Adrian Zandberg. He won't seduce people, especially younger voters.
Maybe he never truly got into the shoes of a real politician.
This is an interesting phenomenon of non-political politicians and non-partisan parties. There are any actors who want to enter into the political strategy but are incapable to cope. They don't realize that the political scene has rules. It's not a tv show or a local convention where you can accept things. The political organization has any principles, it is anchored in a certain way in the political strategy and so far nothing can replace it.
So in short, the PSL goes solo, and Simon Holovnia has to re-write in politics?
The PSL chooses its identity path, which does not exclude their future alliances, due to the fact that it is simply a rotating organization and she manages well in forming a coalition. And Simon Holovnia and his group are at a deep crossroads, risking actually that they no longer be in 2027.
