5% of GDP on defence – this decision at the NATO summit is expected by politicians, media and analysts before the two-day NATO summit in The Hague on Tuesday 24 June.
The day before the summit, the decision is almost certain. The increase in defence spending is decently supported by all NATO members but Spain, whose left-wing government at the last minute has won itself the right to apostasy but does not intend to block others.
"The first volley of future war will be cyber attack"
The case was facilitated by the NATO Secretary-General's maneuver. Mark Rutte divided 5% into 2 baskets – 3.5% for military spending and 1.5% for infrastructure investments, defence manufacture or cybersecurity. The Americans bought it.
– The first volley of another war will not be the fire of tanks entering the NATO border – it will be a cyber attack or a hit on critical infrastructure – said Matthew Whitaker at a gathering with journalists on Monday 23 June before the U.S. Ambassador to NATO summit. He added that even the best tanks would not aid if the roads and bridges did not let them to be rapidly moved to the front.
NATO Summit. Europeans fear for budgets
The day before the summit seems more hard to agree on the date of gathering the fresh target. There are proposals: 2030, 2032 and 2035. The countries of the east Alliance's flank would like the deadline to be as short as possible, but another countries – usually located further distant from Russia and having greater problems with achieving the current 2% spending mark – opt for a longer term.
As the German defence minister Boris Pistorius stressed at a fresh gathering of the heads of the Alliance's defence departments, no 1 would request spending 5% from now on – and we will request to find a compromise between objectives and what European states will be able to spend.
What will the Americans come to the NATO summit with?
The United States is the most curious in the increase in European defence spending, although it presently only spends 3.4 percent. However, Donald Trump believes that America "should not" be bound by a mark of 5 percent, since "she has supported NATO for so long". He is not in a hurry to Europe – he will not be arriving until Tuesday. But Washington continues to press.
– We call on allies to act and to bear a fair share of the cost of transatlantic security," said Ambassador Whitaker on 23 June, stressing the importance of "reestablishing balance in the burden of common defence." Washington expects "a crucial and credible increase in defence budgets year-on-year" and review levels of combat preparedness and fulfilment of military targets. Whitaker announced it would be a permanent subject in dealing with allies.
When asked if the US would support the inclusion in the conclusions of the Russian summit as a major threat to the diplomatic Alliance he avoided explaining that the negotiations on the communication are ongoing, but "an undeniable reason" to focus on expanding investment in defence "is Russia and the long-term threat it poses to NATO security".
NATO Summit: What do Europeans come with?
After it became clear that the Americans would focus more attention on Asia and the Pacific, as well as after the Pentagon launched a force review, signaling the anticipation of withdrawing parts of the US troops from Europe, in the last half of the EU began, effectively, to look for money on defence. The last fewer months of Trump's policy towards Russia and Ukraine – contrary to the current line of American administration – besides accelerated the preparation of programmes specified as SAFE.
Support for the 5% mark will show Donald Trump that Europeans are credible and will let him to reject success. They themselves – as the author of this text late told the deputy secretary-general of NATO, Dr. Jamie Shea from the Friends of Europe survey centre, will most likely anticipate a clearer presentation of American plans.
When asked on Monday whether president Trump would undertake to synchronise possible reductions in military personnel in Europe with Europeans' expanding defence capabilities, Ambassador Whitaker did not deny the proposition in the question and replied that the Americans would work "hand-in-hand" with Europe and Canada to guarantee that there would be no holes in defence capabilities in the event the United States withdraws any force from anywhere.
According to a survey by the British global Institute for strategical Studies, a possible substitution of American weapons and 128,000 soldiers would cost Europe about $1 trillion in 25 years.
Last EU summit under the Polish Presidency
Immediately after the NATO Summit – 26 June – EU leaders will meet in Brussels at the last European Council chaired by the Polish Presidency. They will address, among another things, the disastrous humanitarian situation in Gaza after a year of Israeli attacks, EU interior safety and Moldova's accession process, as well as defence and Ukraine.
Kiev's participation in the NATO summit was minimized, and the Americans with Ambassador Whitaker's mouth stressed that "there is no military solution to the Russian-Ukrainian War", while president Trump supports "any diplomatic mechanics that will lead to lasting peace" and hopes for the readiness of both parties to compromise. besides at the EU summit Ukraine can push the further escalation of Israel's conflict with Iran, although Poles hope to push the 18th package of sanctions against Russia – this would be the 3rd 1 during this Presidency.
Will there be a ban on Russian gas coming into the EU?
The leaders will besides discuss the European Commission's proposal – a complete ban on Russian gas coming into the Union from 1 January 2026. It excluded long-term gas contracts signed with Russian entities until 17 June 2025, which will shift the real turn of the cocks by 2 years, and the immediate ban will not include countries entirely surrounded by land.
Russian gas inactive imports France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Spain, but these exceptions are a clear bow towards Hungary and Slovakia. He did not help, due to the fact that Viktor Orban had already utilized Israel's attack on Iran to express his concerns about rising energy prices and appealed for a departure from the idea. However, the EC has not accidentally proposed to introduce this major amendment by regulation – it requires only a qualified majority of 15 countries with a full population of 65% of the EU population alternatively than unanimity.
More happiness – that is, the support of always reluctant Hungary – will gotta have at the top of the 18th package of sanctions on Russia. This requires unanimity and the Polish Presidency is counting on it very much at the end of its half-year in the EU. It has worked so far, but the result of the negotiations can be affected by both tense relations between Warsaw and Budapest, where politicians from hostile camps rule, as well as the crisis in the mediate East.
