In fresh days, the Russians have made further advancement north and south of Bachmut, slow tightening the loop around the city. Of the 4 supply roads leading to the city, the passable (all its length) is only one, the O-0506 circuit route, leading through Taziw Jar.
North of Bachmut
After the fall of Soledar, on 16 January, the Russians crossed the Bachmutówka River and cut the T-0513 (Bachtmut-Siewiersk) road. The Russians secured their positions, advancing along the mentioned road, both north and south.
In the north of Soledar they occupied the village of Sakko and Wancetti (this is 1 village, its circumstantial name was created from the names of 2 Italian anarchists).
In the south of Soledar, after dense whales, they managed to take on Krasna Hora – a strong Ukrainian position that the Russians have stormed respective times in fresh months. Now the mark of the Russians is the neighbouring Paraskowijivka, behind which is the M-03 road (Charków-Słowiansk-Bachmut). However, already now a long of this road, which is closest to Bachmut, is under constant fire from Russian artillery.
On the plus side, it can be noted that the Russians were incapable to occupy the hills located west of the village of Blahodatne. Before Soledar fell, the Ukrainians prepared trenches along the ridge of the hills.
Situation north of Bachmut. I marked the M-03 roads, T-0513 and the belt of Ukrainian fortifications extending westwards from T-0513 (along the ridge of the surrounding hills). Source: Suriyakmaps (Twitter)South of Bachmut
The Russians besides passed the advancement south of Bachmut, occupying the village of Klichchijiwka. The Russians are moving along the Donbas Canal here and are coming out onto the left wing of Krasny (Ivanski) defenders.
Pro-Russian sources claim that the Russians have already managed to take part of the T-0504 (Constantinówka-Bachmut) road. Even if it is not true, the road is not suitable to be moved to Bachmut due to its proximity to combat.
Situation south of Bachmut, source: Pouletvolant3, TwitterStrategic situation in Bachmut
The situation of the Ukrainian garrison defending Bachmut is becoming critical. For supplying the city is full suitable (i.e. can be utilized throughout its length) only the way O-0506 (Times of Jar-Bachmut). However, it is simply a circuit road of dubious quality. It is hard for her to be liable for the full logistics of the Bachmut defense.
The Russians act very methodically and - as I have written many times - repeat the script from Lisician under Bachmut, i.e. they effort to go out to the rear of the opponent, cut off his logistics and force him to retreat.
Under Bachmut, there is very small that separates the Russians from bringing about a situation where Ukrainian logistics will collapse and Ukrainians will not be able to supply Bachmut anymore.
Bachmut's defence is hampered by the fact that the Russians are simultaneously advancing in 3 directions. In addition to attacks north and south of the city, the Russians gradually enter the east districts of Bachmut. Speaking of the east direction, it should be pointed out that Ukrainians can effectively slow down the Russian attack here, based on the Bachmutówka River, which divides the city into the western and east parts.
Ukrainians bring out local counterattacks that hinder Russians' surroundings of Bachmut, but are incapable to reject Russians from the city. Ukrainians seem to deficiency adequate evidence to carry out a "wider counterattack" that could unlock key supply routes heading into the city. Circuits are most likely missing due to Ukrainian preparations to repel the expected Russian spring offensive.
If there is no "wider Ukrainian counterattack" and the unlocking of supply roads (and in my opinion it will not), then the fall of Bachmut in the following weeks should be counted. At the same time, the Russians will not be in a hurry to tour the city.
The situation in which only 1 supply road leads to Bachmut is the Russian side. The Russians, alternatively of throwing themselves at Bachmut, will most likely effort to gain fire control over the O-0506 way to ask the Ukrainian side the highest possible losses. Russian tactics are predictable and poorly refined, but effective – the advantage in dense equipment and surviving power is doing its job.
The fall of Bachmut will not change the strategical situation – west of the city is simply a strip of fortified hills, which will service as another line of Ukrainian defence and will be utilized to slow down the Russian march to Slavic and Kramatorsk.
In addition, it must be remembered that the conflict of Bachmut is simply a conflict to exhaustion. Each side tries to inflict the enemy's highest losses and break the opponent's possible before the spring offensive. Who controls Bachmut is of secondary importance. We'll see about who won this fight in the spring.
