Written by Tyler Durden
Written by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
The second circular of Russian-Ukrainian talks resumed on Monday in Istanbul did not bring any advancement on the way to peace.
Both sides simply exchanged auYour memorandums about predictable military-political tips of zero full and They agreed to another prisoner exchange..
This consequence was expected due to the fact that the United States had not yet forced either organization or both organization to make concessions. Therefore, if the United States fails to take action and fails to succeed, only a violent force can break this deadlock.
As regards the possible solution to American intervention, it will take different forms in relation to Ukraine and/or Russia if it always happens.
As for the first, the United States would gotta seriously endanger to cut Ukraine completely off from military, intelligence and economical assistance if it did not comply with any of Russia's demands for peace concessions and then proceed to it if Zelenski refused.
Even if Europeans They most likely won't follow in their footsteps.They will not be able to replace the lost function of the US in helping Ukraine.
As regards the form it would have taken in relation to Russia, the United States would gotta impose and then enforce paralysing secondary sanctions against all Russia's energy customers without exception, with an emphasis on China, India, the EU and Turkey.
Together with or alternatively of the above mentioned, due to the painful blow specified sanctions can take, the United States can besides "escalate for deescalation" by expanding military, intelligence and economical assistance to Ukraine, although risking war due to miscalculation with Russia.
With respect to the possible solution to the problem of violent force, it would besides take different forms than in Ukraine and/or Russia if it always happened.
As for the first, Ukraine would gotta carry out a adequate number of strategical drone attacks on Russia to force Putin to surrender against Zelenski's maximal demands, but without provoking devastating retaliation in the form of Oreshniki (possibly utilizing tactical atomic warheads).
However, this nonsubjective is unrealistic and measures are highly risky. Yet Ukraine can effort this again.
As regards the form it could take from Russia, Putin would gotta authorize this retaliation to Force Zelenski to surrender against their own maximalist demands, but without provoking Trump to "escalation to deescalate" in consequence for fear of losing all American investments in "Project Ukraine". Russia would besides should be ready to respond to any desperate European provocation in specified a case, specified as formal deployment of troops in Ukrainewhile keeping the US out of combat.
A 3rd possible solution that any might have thought of, namely continuing the ground run in the absence of American coercion against either organization and not "escalation for deescalation" in its own way, would inevitably lead to this sector of the script over time.
Eventually Trump would be forced to either cut off Ukraine, or "escalate for deescalation", if front lines broke down, in which case Ukraine or Russia could then "escalate for deescalation". A certain escalation can so be inevitable.
Given this strategical dynamics, the most realistic script for Russia would so be that the United States They will seriously effort to force Ukraine to compromise, Russia will not respond in a devastating way to any subsequent desperate Ukrainian provocations and then Ukraine will capitulate shortly after erstwhile the US cuts it off.
Unfortunately, latestrhetoric Trump v. Putin and draft law on sanctions His ally Lindsey Graham suggests that Trump is not preparing for this, so the worst-case script could come true.
Translated by Google Translator
Source:https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolistic/
