The Russian Federation's armed forces did not win strategical triumph in Ukraine in 2024. Launched in October 2023 and intensified in June last year, the offensive did not break the front. The Russians scored respective towns and respective twelve villages in Donbasa, moved by 45 km, but the price was 430,000 killed and wounded. At the same time, the Ukrainians transferred armed actions to Russia – to the Kursk region.
This circuit focuses on processes typical of the full conflict in the east. On the 1 hand, we have the mutiny propaganda of Moscow, announcing the imminent repression of the Ukrainian army. On the another hand, the comparative weakness of both parties incapable to bring quick, decisive blows. The changing state of possession is The effect of “throwing” as in the colloquial military language is said to be low-mobil, persistent fighting set to gradually exhaust the opponent.
The deficiency of tactical and operational craftsmanship is peculiarly evident in the way Russian command uses North Korean troops. Military Kim Jong Una are being thrown into further storms – without the support of artillery and dense wagons – whose only immediate benefit is the Ukrainians' usage of combat measures and the physical and intellectual consumption of defending soldiers.
But it works! – 1 could say. Really? The Ukrainians lost 600 out of 1,200 square miles [1,200 sq km] of occupied land in the Kursk Oblast, or half of their prey, which is considered a failure in a purely rhetorical layer. but we're talking about microscopic theatre of action, that's first. Secondly, up to 100,000 troops are active in the Russian side of the course operation, equivalent to half the forces destined to invade Ukraine in February 2022. And third, most importantly, this "reconquist" so far meant for the Russians (and North Koreans) 38,000 killed and wounded – specified losses were incurred between August and December 2024. In another words, 1 recovered kilometer cost Moscow the life and wellness of 63 soldiers.
And this origin looks even worse for Russian field profits in Ukraine. In 2024 the Russians pulled out 3,200 square kilometres of Ukrainians. A lot? And yes and no. It is the equivalent of six cities the size of Warsaw, which appeals to imagination, but we are actually talking about areas in most agricultural areas and wasteland, at best about ruined tiny towns. Which had to pay for life and wellness of more than 120 soldiers – for each mile taken. And as you know, the front didn't break down.
Let us not forget that the Russians have a much higher "end of pain" – individual who does not see finesse in Russian actions, but sees a powerful determination and derives a affirmative conclusion for Moscow. That is, that the “throwing” will be worth it anyway, due to the fact that the Ukrainians will yet crack, and there are many less of them and have less mobilization possibilities.
On logical grounds, it is correct thinking, but Ukrainian losses have remained at a much lower level since the beginning of the war. They are now 3 or even 4 times smaller. In addition, there are no indications that the Russians have the possible to exploit the violent weakening of Ukrainians. The Russian Ministry of Defence has not announced information about wage increases for participants of the alleged special-operation. Circuit governors appeal to Putin to declare mandatory universal mobilization. The money to keep the current pace of raising volunteers has no ideas, hence the thought to introduce forced placement. And the human mass – so far the most crucial asset of Moscow – and the problems with its availability, is not the only challenge for another year of war. The Russians are increasingly lacking combat vehicles and tanks. Without the North Korean supplies of artillery besides have nothing – and it does not seem to change – to usage possible breaches at the front. They will not flood the Ukrainians with streams of steel, even if they “draw them enough”.
So why are they fighting? I feel like It's all about creating illusions of origin and strength. Point force is helpful in this, the planet can fall for another “success” of the Russian army. And to force Kiev to end the war even on conditions that are unfavorable to Ukraine.
