Behind the Russian stock marketplace the worst week since the start of Kremlin's aggression to Ukraine. This is the consequence of both Donald Trump's decision to impose the highest import duties on a number of countries in nearly 100 years, as well as the OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production rapidly, which led to the collapse of its prices.
According to stock exchange data, the capitalization of the Moscow Stock Exchange decreased by 2 trillion rubles in 2 days (about PLN 91 billion). Wednesday at the end of the day was 55.04 trillion rubles (2.52 trillion zł) and Friday evening was 53.02 trillion rubles (2.43 trillion zł). The Moscow Stock Exchange Index, which includes the securities of the 43 largest companies, lost 8.05 percent at the end of the week. This was the worst score since the end of September 2022.When the marketplace became panicky partial mobilization into the army announced by Putin.
Economists break hands — and present gloomy predictions.
At the end of the day, Sber's shares fell by 5.2 percent, Gazprom by 4.9 percent, WTB by 6 percent, Rosnieft by 3.9 percent, and Łukoil by 4.6 percent. Sword's shares lost over 7 percent, Aeroflot by 4.8 percent, and Novatek by 5.4 percent.
The prices are on your head.
— A powerful crisis unfolds before our eyes said Evgeny Kogan, an investment banker and prof. at the University of Economics. Customs duties imposed by Trump on respective countries They radically change the rules of the game in global trade and bring to the global economy the hazard of a 3rd recession since the beginning of the century. Analysts from JPMogran, 1 of the largest financial holding companies in the world, estimation its probability of 60%.
That makes The natural materials are rapidly cheap. Within 2 days Brent's oil price dropped by 12% and at any point reached $64.06 (about PLN 251) per barrel — this is the lowest level since April 2021. In the same period, future contracts for copper fell by 11 percent. Stock indices in the US lost 5 percent on Thursday, as did Friday. On the another hand, the stock marketplace in Europe closed on that day with a drop of 4-5 percent — after China has announced a work of 34 percent. for all goods from the United States.
According to Jelena Kożuchowa, analysts from fresh York's Veles Capital investment firm, global trade wars mean for the Russian economy a drop in natural materials prices, higher import prices and a fresh circular of inflation. inexpensive oil can besides lead to budget problems and entail a fall in ruble value in the coming months. — The situation may save advancement in peace talks, but for now it is not visible “The specialist says.
‘The clock is ticking’
Donald Trump threatened that if the breakthrough wasn't due to Russia, impose secondary duties on its oil. Shortly after that, Kirill Dimitriev, key advisor to Vladimir Putin for business and head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RFPI) went to Washington. It was the first visit of a high-ranking Moscow typical to the US since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
However, it did not bring any breakthrough. After talking to Russian Marco Rubio, U.S. Secretary of State, said Washington was willing to wait a fewer more weeks, but not months—because the clock is ticking.
Since mid-February, erstwhile American-Russian negotiations began, Gazprom shares have already fallen by 30 percent., Norilsk Nickel by 25 percent and Rosnieft by 28 percent. According to Evgeny Kogan, it may not end there.
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