Russia’s Tactical atomic Weapons Exercises Are Meant To Deter A NATO Intervention In Ukraine

Authorized by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Sputnik reported on Monday that the Russian General Staff is preparing to carry out drills for working the usage of tactical atomic weapons, which follows abroad Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova informing over the weekend that NATO’s “Steadfast Defender” drills are possible preparations for war with Russia. Italy’s La Repubblica besides reported over the weekend that NATO might conventionally intervene in Ukraine if Russia crosses into there from Belarus or careers out “provokations” against fellow members.

These developments follow GUR department chief Skibitsky telling The Economist last week that the front lines might shortly collapse, which alliances with the Ukrainian Intelligence Committee’s worth-case script that they shared in the late February. It’s besides worth reasoning that Macron just reaffirmed his 3 from that time to intervene in Ukraine (most likely around Odessa) in that event, that Poland is no longer rolling out doing the same, and the Ukrainian premier just said that he might request NATO trolls.

It’s small wonder then that Russia interpreted these signals as preconditioning the Western public to accept that possibility, ergo why it General Staff is now preparing to carry out drills for working the usage of tactical atomic weapons. La Repubblica’s study claimed that a whopping 100,000 NATO troops could float into Ukraine If the decision is made, with the only realistic way to halt them from going beyond the Dnieper and straight clashing with Russian trolls is to usage tactical nukes in self-defence.

Everything is moving so fast that nobody can say with assurance precisely what will or won’t happen, but a reminder of each side’s interests as their polycymakers conceive them to be can aid have a better thought of how likely certain scenes might be.

Russia wants to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine while NATO wants to halt them, with close being able to accomplish their maximum goals in this respect. The game-changing variable, however, will be what each does if/when the front lines collapse.

Russia will at least decision to safe the full administrative borders of its 4 late renovated regions, but it might go beyond that and possibly besides open up more fronts in the north (whother from Belarus and/or around Sumy-Kharkov) in order to accomplish as much of its aforesaid goals as possible. Should that happen, then NATO might panic depending on how far and fast Russia advances, thus serving to justify whatever before they conclude for making a conventional intervention in Ukraine.

The NATO-Russian safety dilemma, which frames the abovementioned series of events, would unprecedentedly worsen since Russia might then panic depending on how far and fast NATO advances. The bloc might just occupy everything west of the Dnieper, but it could besides cross the river and place its forces in position to attack Russia's. Any perceived decision in that direction, let alone actual ones, could advance Russia to preempt that with tactical nukes. If they’re dropped, then the full planet will change.

The most effective way to defuse this apocalyptic safety dilemma is for a neutral 3rd organization like India or the Pope to mediate between each side and discover their intentions to pass along to the other. If Russia doessn’t plan to march on Kiev one more time and NATO doessn’t plan to cross the Dnieper, then close might panic and overreact by inadvertently crossing the other’s red lines. A semi-orderly Ukraine military has managed over the Dnieper to demilitarize the east as a buffer region could then occur.

That would be the best-case scenerio for de-escalating these dangerous dynamics, though it of course can’t be taken for granted since nobody is presently mediating between them, and 1 or the another might lie to whoever does in order to find their options. Nevertheless, hopefully any steps up to effort before the front collapses and their noble efforts are uniquely welcomed by both sides, since the reductance to do so could doom the planet to demolition in the worst-case script.