Military maneuvers usually prepare for the worst script — for Moscow Zapad 2017 was the best scenario. Russian and Belarusian military units then simulated the war with NATO. More specifically, the conquest of the Suwałki gulf.
The 65 km wide land corridor runs along the borders of Poland and Lithuania — and is considered the military Achilles heel of Europe. If attacked by Russia, NATO would only be able to supply the Baltic States through the Baltic Sea. This is due to the fact that Russia would supply itself with direct access to the Baltic Sea through Belarus and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.
Eight years ago, we could have known what Moscow was planning. present the theoretical option actually came on the table. — Russia inactive wants to control Suwałki, which means an attack on NATO territories “Viljar Veebel has been investigating the defence of the Baltic countries in the OECD and the Estonian National Defence College for years.
Moscow is trained in an emergency, Moscow is armed. The Kremlin creates military realities almost in sync with debates on aid to Ukraine, peace talks and NATO strategies: aggressive threats, billion-dollar weapons, patriotic children's education. The 3rd planet War is simply a real dystopia.
Russia's powerful armed forces are deployed north of the Baltic States, about 250 km east of Helsinki. Tens of thousands of soldiers, pilots and sailors are stationed at the gates of the capital of the second youngest NATO member. The Leningrad Military territory was only reinstated a year ago in consequence to Finland's accession to NATO. According to the Polish Institute of global Relations, this was accompanied by “the continuous accumulation of military possible there”.
In conjunction with the air force brigade close the borders of Estonia and Latvia, the attack on the Baltic countries could start from here. “The alleged pliers attack from respective directions could overwhelm the Baltic countries in a very short time”, says David Batashvili. He is simply a investigator at the Georgian Rondela Foundation, who monitors Russia's military potential.
Strategic goal for Moscow
Control of Suwałki isa strategical nonsubjective for Moscow, as it can gain a comparatively valuable bargaining card with comparatively small effort to accomplish another economical and diplomatic objectives.
This is how things can happen if Europe is not careful. The global Institute of strategical Studies calculated that the Russian military budget in 2024 was $462 billion (1.77 trillion PLN), adjusted for purchasing power. Finally, all European countries invest a akin amount. But Russia invests almost a 3rd of its government spending in arms. Europe is arguing for an increase to 3% of gross home product.
The latest German defence superpackage would at least be a signal for Moscow. Black and red want to invest respective 100 billion euros in the Bundeswehr. But the difference would stay significant. Since what the election winner Friedrich Merz wants to spend erstwhile on infrastructure and defence, Russia invests annually, taking into account purchasing power.
"Russian economy is on the warpath. Russia is preparing for a long-term confrontation. With Ukraine and with us," said NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Bratislava on 20 February.
TOBY MELVILLE / PAPNATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at Lancaster House, London, United Kingdom, March 2, 2025.
“We are not ready”
All points to a long-term confrontation. The largest associate of the Western defence Alliance — the United States — is openly threatening to retreat his commitment to help. "If they don't pay, I won't defend them," US president Donald Trump said on Thursday.
That'll most likely encourage Moscow. Anyway, the Kremlin can't back out of its own rhetoric. A diplomat from 1 of the countries neighbouring Russia, who refuses to give his name, told us that "The threat from Russia already causes abroad investors to stay away." In another words, only war will guarantee Putin's political survival.
Danish intelligence services foretell that Moscow may be ready for war in 5 years. NATO Secretary-General Rutte warns: "We are not ready for what will come in 4 to 5 years."
Our colleagues Ozan Demircan and Lennart Roos analyzed satellite images and talked to experts. The image is clear: Russia is armed. The chosen means are not diplomacy and soft force. It's strength and the military.
The Moscow Doctrine. Firstly, systematic reinforcements
Within 2 decades before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russia has already invested in the improvement of a professional army — and has done so systematically, says Dara Massicot of Carnegie Endowment for global Peace, an American think tank. “The armed forces conducted interior surveys to realize the motivation of the soldiers, adopted Western Army concepts and systematically improved conditions for military personnel since 2009,” he explains.
These included higher wages, better accommodation, upgraded equipment and anti-corruption and harassment measures. These reforms bring results. “The army gained prestige, the number of professional soldiers increased, the satisfaction of soldiers also,” says the expert. At the end of 2010, more professional soldiers were recruited than conscripts, and military academies filled.
Russia attracts fresh soldiers with advanced financial incentives. Contractual soldiers receive an first bonus and a monthly wage of at least 204,000 rubles, or about $2,280 (8783 PLN) — that is more than twice the average Russian salary, and in any regions even 5 times more.
In 2024 recruitment bonuses increased even more and exceeded the equivalent of $15,000 (PLN 57,8 thousand). — These generous payments enabled Russia to recruit around 300,000 fresh soldiers only from 2023. “This is Rob Lee of the abroad Policy investigation Institute.
The defence manufacture besides operates at full speed. Despite Western sanctions, Moscow switched its economy to war production. Arms factories are working on many changes, wages in the defence manufacture are increasing, and state incentives to military service are increasing. Money is directed to mediocre regions to make economical dependence.
Recently, in September 2024, Kremlovsky leader Putin ordered an increase in the army's numbers of 180 1000 soldiers to 1.5 million. “The most crucial Russian increase in military numbers in the past 3 years is the deployment of fresh land units, which are peculiarly needed in wars,” he says.David Batashvili of Rondeli, Georgia. Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and has since occupied the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russian military bases in these regions are full integrated with the armed forces, and these territories are considered de facto national territory by Russia.
To realize why Vladimir Putin is armed, it is worth listening to Johannes Regenbrecht. erstwhile diplomat of the national Ministry of abroad Affairs served at the embassy in Moscow at the time of the fall of the Berlin Wall, later building an embassy in Minsk, and then being deputy ambassador in Kiev. He was late an envoy of the German embassy in Beijing and a general consul in Istanbul. Among Western diplomats he knows the region like no other.
“He said portal The Pioneer.
Ukraine and another post-Soviet countries are so part of a large area where hegemonic powers exert influence through circumstantial geopolitical spheres, while external interventions stay excluded. "He sees western interference as illegal intervention, and NATO's expansion east as a threat," says Regenbrecht. The war against Ukraine serves to reconstruct this order.
Second: production for Russia
Satellite images show the construction of solid fuel rocket engines. According to Carnegie's research, with 250,000 rounds a month, artillery production for Ukraine is nearly 3 times higher than in the US and Europe. Russian arms exports declined sharply — from 31 recipient countries in 2019 to only 12 in 2023. This means that Russia is producing more and more for itself.
Russian arms efforts can be divided into 3 categories, explains expert Massicot. "They offer higher wages and benefits, control public engagement and the perception of war to cover up bad news, and increase military-patriotic education in schools to attract the next generation of recruits". The budget for "patriotic education" increased to $430 million (PLN 1.65 million) in 2023 to anchor military service as a moral duty.
The improvement of the armed forces is intended to catch up with the West.
- As estimated Russia has about 1.3 million to 1.5 million active soldiers, while NATO has 3.5 million. Alone EU can boast strength of 1.3 million soldiers No mobilization.
- Russia has a maximum of 4,500 aircraft, at least 1,000 little than Europeans. NATO has far more than 22,000 bombers, reconnaissance aircraft and fighters.
- The number of Russian tanks is hard to estimate. Old russian models are reactivated over and over again. In 2022, the global Institute of strategical Studies estimated the number of tanks at 17 500. By January 2024, Russia lost at least 2619 of them. another estimates find the number of Russian tanks at only 12,267. The EU has 4327 tanks, while NATO has a full of 11 309.
- Navy: Russia has about 650 ships on different seas. The European Union itself has 1,500 and NATO has 2500. This maritime force is better located and can be deployed in a targeted manner, for example in the Baltic Sea.
ROBERT GHEMENT / PAPMembers of the Allied NATO fast consequence Force (ARF) take part in NATO Steadfast Dart 25 exercises at the Romanian camp in Smardan, close Galati, Romania, 19 February 2025.
Third: Kaliningrad provocation
What this leads to can be seen in the centre of Europe. The Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea for a long time was the capital of East Prussia and was named Królewiec. Many in Moscow, but besides in the Baltic States, now mention to this region as the "unsinkable carrier" of the Kremlin.
There is the office of the Baltic Fleet and a constantly increasing arsenal of tactical short-range missiles and maneuvering missiles. Russia simulated the atomic attack on Europe in May 2022. — Russia uses the geostrategic and military advantage of the Kaliningrad region as an asset to endanger the Western escalation of the conflict, says Viljar Veebel.
Several hours of flight south-east of here, in the Caucasus, is 1 of the largest concentrations of Russian land troops outside Moscow. The 4 main quarters of various military units are located around the city of Rostov, as well as the main center of the full confederate Military District, which extends from the border with Ukraine to Georgia. During the establishment of the Wagner Group in 2023, a paramilitary organization supported by Russia, people focused around the leadership of Evgeny Prigozyn first captured this strategically crucial city.
