In the latest report, the U.S. Institute of War Studies (ISW) warns that a possible agreement to frost the front line in Ukraine does not exclude future attacks by Russian troops. Russia inactive has interests in expanding its territorial achievements, especially if the truce agreement provides for a moratorium on western arms supplies to Ukraine.
ISW analysts believe that Russia will want to usage any truce to prepare for future attacks. They mention the message of a high-ranking Russian diplomat for the Moscow Times, who stated that “the next steps (in American-Russian talks) will dictate the situation on the battlefield” and that “the request for time, patience and consequences”. This message indicates that Russia is not curious in lasting peace, but alternatively wants to gain strategical advantage in Ukraine.
The current front line does not give Ukraine a strategical territorial depth that effectively defends itself against restarting Russian aggression. Russian forces separate only Dniepr from Cherson and they are only 25 km from Zaporozhye and 20 km from Kharkiv. This means that Russia can resume attacks at any time and effort to recapture lost territories.
The ISW estimates that Russia may tactically cease to adhere to claims to the Ukrainian-controlled areas of the 4 mentioned circuits in order to get another concessions from the US during the negotiations, specified as the installation of a pro-Russian government in Kiev or the extremist simplification of the Ukrainian army to reduce opposition in the event of a fresh Russian attack. This would be a classical example of Russia's tactics, which wants to accomplish its objectives through a combination of persuasion and violence.
According to ISW data, Russia has lost about 100,000 soldiers in the last 12 months, with an additional 300,000 injured. Nevertheless, Russia inactive has a crucial military advantage over Ukraine, both in terms of the number of soldiers and military equipment. It is worth noting that Ukraine received military support from western countries worth about $10 billion, which helped it keep its defence from Russian aggression.
However, the ISW warns that Russia will most likely attack in the future, utilizing all truce to prepare for the fresh offensive. "The Kremlin is likely to usage any truce to limit the supply of U.S. weapons to Ukraine in order to prepare for the resumption of aggression," the study says. This message indicates that Russia is not curious in lasting peace, but alternatively wants to gain a strategical advantage in Ukraine in order to be able to prosecute its political and military objectives.
In this context, Ukraine and the West must be aware of the risks of the truce and be prepared to proceed military support for Ukraine. At the same time, Ukraine should proceed its efforts to strengthen its army and defence to be able to effectively defend itself against Russia's future attacks. It is worth noting that Ukraine received financial support from western countries worth about $20 billion, which helped it keep economical stableness during the war.
In conclusion, Russia and Ukraine are in a state of uncertainty and confusion about the future of their relations. Russia inactive has interests in expanding its territorial achievements, and Ukraine must be prepared to proceed its defence. The West must be aware of the risks of truce and be ready to proceed military support for Ukraine. All this indicates that the conflict in Ukraine will proceed for a long time, and its resolution will require commitment and goodwill from all parties.
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Russia and Ukraine: Does the truce mean the end of the war?
