Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul: no progress

On 23 July, a 3rd circular of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations on the end of the war took place in Istanbul (the erstwhile 1 took place on 2 June). The talks lasted only 40 minutes and were preceded by a gathering of the heads of delegation – president of the Council of National safety and Defence of Ukraine Rustem Fatalov and advisor to Putin Vladimir Miedinski – with head of Turkish diplomacy Hakan Fidan. Another exchange of prisoners of war was agreed to cover at least 1,200 people. After the meeting, the parties shall agree on the date of the next meeting. The rule of constant exchange of severely injured straight on the front line is besides to be implemented.

The Russian side proposed the establishment of 3 working groups (military, political and humanitarian), the introduction of 24-48-hour truces to evacuate wounded and hand over bodies killed and the surrender of another 3,000 bodies of fallen soldiers to Ukraine. Moscow delegates besides proposed to include civilians in the exchange, and presented lists of allegedly exported and/or held by Ukrainians Russian children and residents of the Kursk region of FR (a part of it occupied Ukrainian forces for 9 months). Kiev denies these allegations and demands unconditional dismissal of Ukrainian children and another civilians abducted by the Russians. At the same time, he calls for the release of his soldiers who have been imprisoned for over 3 years, especially those of younger age and severely wounded.

The Ukrainian side reiterated its readiness to cease its arms unconditionally and promptly, in peculiar to halt attacks on critical and civilian infrastructure. She besides proposed organising a gathering of the leaders of both countries by the end of August. Presidents of Turkey and the USA could besides participate in the summit. The Russians stated that specified a gathering would not be possible until the terms of the agreement were agreed.

The main mark of the Istanbul talks was president Donald Trump. The Russian side, pretending to be constructive, seeks to stall negotiations and tries to hold Ukraine liable for their deficiency of clear progress. This is to discourage Trump from imposing the sanctions he has threatened. The Ukrainian side demonstrates good will and striving to carry out the US President's demands on summit and ceasefire. At the same time, they effort to enter Trump's ultimatum against Russia and convince the US to increase its support, pointing to the deficiency of agreement from Moscow. At the same time, Kiev focuses on the return of prisoners, civilians and children, which is an crucial issue in the public debate in Ukraine.

Comment

• The 3rd circular of talks showed no change in the position of the Russian side. Moscow treats them as a screen for ongoing offensive activities, including rocket and drone attacks for civilian purposes. The threat of possibly severe US sanctions to Russia, issued by president Trump on 15 July, is to be imposed if, within 50 days, there is no end to the war. Russia calmly accepts Trump's ultimatum on the war with Ukraine) – did not mitigate the maximumist conditions imposed by the Kremlin. The Russian side seems to believe that the specified fact of continuing talks with Ukraine, despite the deficiency of advancement on the settlement of the conflict (for which Moscow is trying to blame Kiev), will be adequate pretext for the American president not to impose sanctions. The Kremlin besides uses talks for propaganda purposes, attempting to make an impression of symmetry on the issues of Russian-exported children and allegedly abducted by Ukrainians from Russia minors, but besides another civilians.
• Continuing talks with the Russians, Ukrainians do not anticipate a breakthrough on the truce, but focus primarily on humanitarian issues. They usage the negotiations to guarantee the return of soldiers, civilian prisoners and exported children, which is welcomed by society. Highlighting the readiness for immediate ceasefire and gathering at the summit is intended to show Kiev's constructive attitude, and at the same time show the compliance of his expectations with Trump's demands (see. Tactical success of Kiev. U.S.-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal). Pushing the subject of the Zelenski gathering with Putin, Kiev tries to impose its own communicative and support the American ultimatum towards Moscow. Leader talks, with the possible participation of the US President, would show that the Kremlin is not willing to compromise, which in turn would prompt the United States to increase support for Ukraine.