After the collapse of the russian Union in 1991, it may have seemed that Polish defence spending did not gotta overburden the state budget. Poland joined the NATO alliance, which seemed to turn into an organization that controlled besides aggressive actions of weak states, specified as Serbia, or to liquidate local warlords like Saddam Hussein. The collapse of the USSR left weak Russia, China had no crucial army. The American atomic umbrella and allied assurances were intended to defend against any threat, and efficient military operations against excessive ambitions of local leaders. The failure of this imagination of safety forces us to catch up rapidly in building a modern army.
The 2 loudest conflicts present - the war in Ukraine and the conflict in Iran - have shattered the belief that NATO will only deal with weak and backward states as possible opponents. present we know that possible conflicts may require a joint financial effort from all NATO members, and the United States itself will not destruct all threats. Europe, including Poland, should so become more independent of external support by building its own defence potential. However, this requires increased investment in defence and implementation of modern technologies.
Building a strong army in Poland must be linked to the expansion of its own defence industry, which has been neglected for years. abroad purchases can strengthen the possible of the Polish Army with state-of-the-art technologies, but will not replace national manufacturing capacity. As the experience of the United States in the 1950s and 1960s has shown, massive investments in the defence manufacture and modern military technologies not only increase safety but besides become an impulse to make modern technologies in civilian production.
Government ideas to improve defence capabilities
The Ministry of Defence on its website provides: “In the method Modernization Plan for the years 2021–2035 for fresh weapons and equipment for soldiers, we have planned evidence backing of PLN 524 billion. No government in the past of free Poland has been able to supply so much money for modernisation, and this amount will increase as the budget increases."
MON besides stresses that we are spending 4.2% of GDP on defence. That's twice as much money as NATO's 2%. There are besides more detailed modernisation plans that the ministry wants to carry out or is already implementing. Recently, during the signing of subsequent contracts under the PERUN programme, Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that Poland's goal was to build the strongest army in Europe.
The request to strengthen Polish defence capabilities may mean the request to reduce the number of equipment transferred to Ukraine. - It's like a lifeguard approaching an accident. There is simply a individual who needs help, the lifeguard must first make safe conditions to supply this assistance. We as rescuers can only aid until it does not endanger our safety. I made this border clear and clear − said the Minister of National Defence Władysław Kosiniak-Kamish in an interview with “Faktu”.
At the same time, he announced the continuation of the aid, e.g. participation in the PURAL programme promoted by Donald Trump. Within this framework, Europe is to buy American equipment and hand it over to Ukraine. However, the fresh transmission by the current government of Patriot missiles purchased by Poland as part of the implementation of the WIS£A programme was loud.
"The large Seven", or 7 precedence areas of transformation
The latest plan for the improvement of the armed forces sets out the alleged "Big Seven", or 7 precedence areas of transformation. By 2039, the number of the Armed Forces of Poland is expected to increase to 500 thousand. This will include 300,000 soldiers remaining active and 200,000 high-ranking reservists.
The basic paradigm for deterrence is Deterrence by punishment, that is, the ability to conduct precise hits on key objects in the territory of the opponent. Another ability to become Deterrence by Denial, i.e. the creation of integrated missile, anti-aircraft and anti-drone defence. It is besides crucial to make adequate human resources by expanding the strength of training and introducing a fresh combat capacity maintenance system.
As part of the WISŁA programme, the implementation of the Patriot Air Defence strategy has been ongoing since 2022. The full procedure is carried out under the SICO procedure. System Integration Checkout). The first phase active integrating the M903A2 rocket strategy Patriot with the another elements of the system. An integrated anti-aircraft and rocket defence (IBCS) strategy is to be established.
Two fresh loud conflicts: the war in Ukraine and the American invasion of Iran have shown how crucial drones play a function in the modern battlefield. Turns out a million-dollar chopper can be knocked down with a comparatively inexpensive drone. At the same time, combating drones is besides costly utilizing conventional anti-aircraft defence tools. Therefore, the Polish Armed Forces will be forced to implement state-of-the-art technologies in this area as well.
"The paper besides covers the wide implementation of unmanned and autonomous systems – dronization and robotics will cover all types of troops, domains and combat functions: reconnaissance, decision support, firing and logistics security, at all levels – strategic, operational and tactical. 1 of the key technological elements is artificial intelligence, supporting analytical, planning, management and command processes, which gives information and decision-making advantage over possible opponent" − read on www.wojsko-polskie.pl.
As part of the modernization, the ground forces will receive modern 3rd generation tanks, including M1A2 Abrams and Korean K2 Black Panther. The air force will be equipped with V generation F-35 fighters. By 2030, it is assumed that our air force will have modern Western equipment. The current F16 fighters (total of 48 units), F35 (32 pieces) fighters and Korean FA-50 and FA-50PL (48 pieces) fighters will be among the machines in use.
The Navy will receive 3 ships as part of the “Meaner” programme. MON boasts that the largest order always signed for the national defence manufacture has already been signed. The pride of the Navy is the ship ORP Wicher – the largest in Polish naval history. The another 2 − ORP Hurricane and ORP Storm − will not yield to him in size. The displacement of each was planned for 7,000 tonnes, and the dimension for almost 140 m. The full program is scheduled to end in the early 1930s. The erstwhile evidence of buoyancy belonged to the ORP Warsaw ship, which was transferred to the Polish People's Republic in 1988 by the russian Navy. Its full displacement was 4,950 tons.
Key aspects of modernisation: time and safety of funds
As he said Gen. Dyw. Krzysztof Zielski, Deputy Head of the General Staff of the Polish Army, for the defense24.pl portal, our army has small time to improve its combat capability. He besides stressed the request to make method and training infrastructure alongside the acquisition of equipment. Appropriate conditions must be created to increase the individual position of the military, which entails additional costs.
The volume of expenditure on infrastructure expansion and arms purchases depends on the state of the economy, whose size affects budgetary capacity. However, in order to supply adequate resources, loans will should be sought. 1 solution may be the SAFE program.
The improvement of the Polish Armed Forces will be a long-term programme. It is intended to guarantee the construction of a many and modern army by 2039. During this time, the Polish defence manufacture is besides planned to increase its capabilities. This nonsubjective is to be achieved by strengthening innovation and competitiveness, modernising industrial potential, developing export policy and strengthening state support infrastructure.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that he plans to increase the independency of the Polish army from deliveries abroad. − We would like the maximum production to be in Poland, to be owners of licenses and technologies, which are straight dependent on the safety of Poland. (...) The Polish army can be not only strong, but besides full independent of external supplies. This – in times of conflict and threats – is 1 of the conditions of authentic, embedded on real safety foundations. I am happy to study that we will indeed be sovereign – besides in this area − stated (citate for gov.pl).
However, not all share the enthusiasm of the rulers associated with the modernization of the Polish army. In conversation with Defence24.pl portal General Jarosław Gromadziński, erstwhile Eurocorpus commander and creator of the 18th Iron Mechanized Division, expressed concern that ambitious plans included in the strategy for the years 2025–2039 may not be adequate funding. As he stated, the full cost of the planned tasks is not known, so in his opinion the plan resembles a list of wishes alternatively than a strategy. The problem could be to scope the army's population of 500,000. So far, there is no tendency to increase the number of military posts. According to the General, neither SAFE nor NBP profits will improve the situation. The cost of servicing the debt from SAFE will make the request to repay immense interest and profits from NBP have not been recorded.
The Polish defence manufacture will have problems expanding its production capacity if government contracts under multi-annual contracts are not increased. If there is no increase in budgetary revenues through GDP growth, the only warrant for the implementation of the programme may be additional taxation burdens.
Wojciech Ostrowski
