In 2025, after 3 years of full-scale war, the social fatigue of conflict is increasing, and Russian authorities are increasingly discussing the request for a fresh mobilisation impulse. In specified an atmosphere the**scenario of the operation “under a false flag”** – an assassination attributed to Ukraine, skillfully directed just before or on the very day of the vacation – appears technically feasible and politically attractive. The analysis of the Western and any Russian independent experts indicates a advanced likelihood of specified an operation.
