In October Maduro appeared on television, swearing that the Venezuelans are ready to "defeat this outright conspiracy against peace and stability" of their country. But it's just a good face for a bad game. The dictator reportedly sent a letter to Russian president Vladimir Putin asking for the transportation of rockets and assistance in repairing Russian fighters.
Former U.S. officials and regional analysts, with whom the journalists of The Moscow Times spoke, argue that the letter reports reflect how hard the Venezuelan leader found himself. It is improbable that relying on Moscow in a possible confrontation with Washington will succeed.
And if president Donald Trump is actually going to force Maduro to step down, a United States triumph could cost Moscow a key ally in Latin America. And this is just the beginning of Putin's troubles, which is why Moscow is already on alert.
If she had any influence, she would have pushed Russia out of the hemisphere.
— Judges James Story, U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela from 2018 to 2023.
Following the dispatch of the largest U.S. naval carrier to the Caribbean, any observers consider the government to be increasingly likely to change.
Russian abroad Minister Sergei Lavrow warned this week that Washington’s tactics “will not do anything good”. Analysts, however, argue that the Kremlin, whose resources are strained by the Kremlin's war in Ukraine, has limited resources or a desire for crucial intervention.
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— I don’t think these accounts are that deep or strategic,” says Story. “ Russia uses the rule of the economics of force in Venezuela,” she adds, utilizing the word referring to the allocation of as small resources as possible to accomplish a certain military objective. “This is an opportunistic relation that in any ways hinders the United States. They draw our attention from another issues, and the Kremlin can do so at a reasonably inexpensive cost.
“Too little, besides late”
From returning to office for a second word Trump gradually tightens Maduro screw And his environment. Americans accuse him of allowing drugs to be transported to the United States.
In August US armed forces have begun deploying warships, submarines and aircraft in the Caribbean.
The next period the American forces began attacks on boats suspected of drug smuggling. According to U.S. officials, this maneuver aims to reduce drug trafficking, but it met with criticism after Over 70 people, mostly Venezuelans, died as a consequence of specified attacks in the Caribbean and Pacific.
Some observers believe that Trump's real intent is to change the government in Caracas. In a fresh 60 Minutes interview, this seemed to be confirmed. erstwhile asked if Maduro’s days as president were numbered, Trump replied: “I would say yes. I think so, yes."
The last major challenge for Maduro's power was the 2019 situation, erstwhile representatives of the Venezuelan opposition challenged his re-election. American officials then launched a run of “maximum pressure” — including sanctions against the oil manufacture — to weaken the government.
During this crisis, Russia played a subtle function in strengthening Venezuela's defence, sending about 100 method advisors to service military equipment.
— The Russians utilized to do a fewer jobs. They were coming and mainly working on repairing Dry and combat helicopters, says Story. — They provided operational and maintenance support for ground-to-air rocket batteries.
Until recently, there was no indication that Venezuela had again asked Moscow for military assistance.
That's erstwhile the letter came.
As the Washington Post reported in late October this year, Putin was asked to assist Russian fighters Suchoj Su-30, repair another equipment and acquisition 14 rocket systems.
Just a fewer days earlier, a Russian transport aircraft landed in Caracas, which sparked speculation that assistance might already be on the way.
If I had to compose a message about it, I would most likely start with the words: “Not enough, not besides late. Venezuela is trying to strengthen its relation with Russia by making the last desperate effort to find friends and resources
“This is Brian Naranjo, a erstwhile American diplomat.
Naranjo, who believes that any kind of intervention by the Trump administration is possible, believes that Maduro is “trying to increase political force on the Russians to either retreat or take action”.
— This is not a maneuver likely to work in the case of the Russians," said Naranjo, basing his assessment on knowing the way the negotiations between the 2 countries were negotiated.
The jury seemed to deny these reports this week, telling the Russian media that the Venezuelan authorities had "not asked us" for military support.
In a sense, however, this support already exists. This month, the Russian parliamentarian claimed that Pancyr-S1 and Buk-M2E rocket systems were late delivered to Venezuela, which was not confirmed by The Moscow Times. In addition to the Suchoj fighters Venezuelan army uses Russian long-range rocket systems S-300 and, according to Maduro, Igla-S short-range rocket systems.
The problem is that many of them may no longer work, as the erstwhile U.S. authoritative said, who spoke anonymously to The Moscow Times.
— Over the years Venezuela has acquired very advanced anti-aircraft systems, according to an official. “We do not know what the state of these systems is or how they were preserved.
Loss of reputation
When Russia sent advisors to Venezuela in 2019., their presence was an expression of solidarity and could complicate any U.S. considerations on military intervention at the time, explains Vladimir Rouvinski, manager of the laboratory of Politics and global Relations at the University of Icesi, Cali, Colombia.
Today Rouvinski sees similarities between Russia's hard situation in Venezuela and the fresh failure of another key ally.
— This, of course, is the case with Asad in Syria, says The Moscow Times. “If Moscow cannot save Maduro’s regime, it will be deja vu.
It's about overthrow of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's government in 2024 Like Maduro Asad, he found an ally in Russia erstwhile he was rejected by the global community. The overthrow of Assad undermined Russia's image as a reliable defender of endangered partners
If Maduro falls and a fresh government comes to power, Russia's reputation will endure again, notes Rouvinski.
The main hazard at the minute is the collapse of what Moscow has tried to build for many years in Latin America, namely its position as 1 of the centers of the planet power, capable of global protection
“ he explains.
Due to Russia's war in Ukraine, which has overstretched the armed forces, The Kremlin no longer has the flexibility it erstwhile had to influence abroad. And although any form of aid to Venezuela remains possible, Rouvinsky said, it will most likely be more symbolic than substantive.
— I do not think that Russia is ready to go very far to defend the Maduro government,” he stresses. — Russia is not prepared and unable, realistically speaking, to engage to this extent.
