The first guesses of the Russian Black Sea offensive began to appear at the beginning of this month. [This results for respective reasons](https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/rosiya-gotue-nastup-herson-ta-zaporizhhya-1733071166.html). The first lead is that in fresh weeks the Russians have intensified their activities in respective directions. The second laborious, though effective pushing the front west of Donetsk. The 3rd is the gradual approach of the Russian army to Constantinówka, which could force Ukrainian forces to focus more attention on this part of the battlefield. Finally, the 4th is the broader geopolitical context. Moscow is clearly trying to capture the largest possible area before Donald Trump enters the White House.
