When Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr store visited Spitsbergen on Thursday, he had 2 gifts in his luggage: a framed drawing depicting a husky expedition on ice and a fresh grant of EUR 3 million (12 million PLN 772,000). The reason for the journey was an crucial anniversary: precisely 100 years ago, the Spitsbergen Agreement entered into force, which granted Norway “full and unlimited” sovereignty over the archipelago.
At the same time, all signatory States have obtained the right to settle and conduct business on the island. This was a peculiar position in global law, which worked comparatively seamlessly for decades. However, For respective years, Russia, which has maintained 2 settlements on Spitsbergen, has been trying to undermine Norway's sovereignty, utilizing increasingly newer provocations.
Currently, this distant group of islands is at the center of a geostrategic power conflict that Putin is not going to let go. And erstwhile again, there's the same argument as the attack on Ukraine.
dpa/Sebastian Kahnert / PAPAbandoned Soviet-Russian mining settlement (bird-eye view by drone), 27 September 2023, Norway, Pyramiden
Spitsbergen lies north of the Arctic Circle, 850 km from the Norwegian mainland. With cold temperatures and six months of darkness during the winter, surviving conditions are far from encouraging. Nevertheless, nearly 3,000 people live there, most of them in the capital Longyearbyen. The largest of the 2 Russian settlements, Barentsburg, in addition to the immense monument of Lenin, has about 350 inhabitants and has a coal mine, operated by the Russian state company "Trust Arktikugol".
Although the mine is loss-making, Moscow is clinging to it as it secures settlement laws on the island. And these have not only a symbolic value for Russia – After all, this place is simply a kind of Kremlin facility in NATO – but besides immense geostrategic significance.
– explains Klaus-Peter Saalbach, expert in geopolitics at Osnabrueck University.
Atomic submarines in Murmansk port are intended to supply Russia with the capacity to carry out a second atomic strike in the event of a conflict. In the gap between Spitsbergen and the mainland it would be easier to halt specified an offensive, so in the event of a serious conflict, these islands would be 1 of the first military targets.
Liseserud / NTB / PAPLongyearbyen is the administrative center of Svalbardu, 13 August 2025.
Russian provocations. Ukrainian script on the horizon
For decades, this was no origin for concern. However, Russian provocations have late intensified: In 2022 an crucial submarine cable connecting Spitsbergen to the mainland was cut. Satellite data shows how just before this event the Russian ship sailed respective twelve times at this point. In addition, Russian investigation ships repeatedly draw attention to their different behaviour and equipment that could be utilized for espionage.
On 9 May 2023 Russia organized a parade in Barentsburg to celebrate the triumph Day of Nazi Germany, in which military helicopters took part. shortly thereafter russian flags were spotted in Russian settlements. In addition to specified small, continuous provocations Moscow tries to undermine Norway's sovereignty besides rhetorically. The Kremlin regularly claims that Norway violates the treaty on Svalbard and wants to militarize the island. A fewer weeks ago, Moscow called the ambassador of Norway. No evidence was presented.
There is simply a increasing fear in the safety circles that provocations may become a serious threat. In particular, 1 script is discussed: Russia could usage the attack on Spitsbergen as a test to test NATO. Head of the BND (German intelligence service) Bruno Kahl has late warned that Vladimir Putin may effort to gradually take over the island and endanger to usage atomic weapons to "breach NATO's commitment to aid".
Here's the idea: If NATO does not defend the islands for fear of atomic escalation, then as a defence alliance it will neglect and Putin will accomplish his goal. A akin maneuver of the Russian military had already practiced in 2017 during the Zapad exercise. “The exercises show that fears are not entirely unfounded,” says Saalbach expert. — The Russians considered these options. However, the Kremlin would take a large risk,” he notes.
NATO's catching up. That's how he wants to stand up to Russia.
Russia has military advantage over NATO states in the region – the Russian Navy has tens of icebreakers, while the US Navy has only 1 – and in fresh years it has expanded its bases along the Arctic coast. However, the United States is presently investing more and more in developing its capacity in the Far North. Furthermore, NATO is increasingly conducting maneuvers in this region, late Joint Viking exercises in March this year.
“ NATO is now far more opposed to these plans,” says Saalbach. However, European Arctic countries are inactive dependent on the US for safety issues. The debate was besides heated by statements by US president Donald Trump, who repeatedly questioned the NATO common Assistance Clause and caused uncertainty in his own claims against Greenland. In Norway, even scenarios in which Trump uses Spitsbergen as leverage in negotiations with Putin.
This is most likely why the archipelago plays a greater function for the first time in the fresh safety strategy of the Norwegian Government. "National control of Spitsbergen should be strengthened," says the document. "The sovereignty of Norway must be strictly enforced". To this end, the presence on the island should be increased, for example by promotion of tourism or renting out of Norwegian state housing. This message besides includes a generous birthday gift from the Prime Minister Store.
