Romania: Coalition crisis as a consequence of the first circular of presidential elections

In the first circular of repeated presidential elections in Romania on 4 May, the most votes – 40.96% – were won by George Simion, leader of the opposition national-conservative and sovereign union of Romanian Unity (AUR). The second circular was besides attended by the centre-right independent mayor of Bucharest Nicușor Dan (20.99%), supported by the opposition Union of Romania (USR). He overtook Crina Antonescu (20.07%), a candidate for a ruling coalition composed of the Social Democratic organization (PSD), the National-Liberal organization (PNL) and a group representing Romanian Hungarians (UDMR). The 4th place was taken by erstwhile Prime Minister Victor Ponta (13.04%), erstwhile the leader of social democrats, present proclaiming slogans akin to the MEGA narrative. The 5th position (2.68%) was ranked USR leader Elena Lasconi. The remaining six candidates received only 2.25% of support.

After the results were announced on May 5, there was a government crisis. His largest organization – PSD (with 26% seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 27% in the Senate) – announced his exit from the coalition and its leader, while Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu resigned the second of these functions. The direct origin of both decisions was the failure of Antonescu. At the same time, the PSD authorities announced that the government (under the leadership of the Prime Minister to be appointed in the coming days) would proceed to work as a temporary cabinet and that the ministers of the Social Democrats would stay in office for the time being.

In the event of Simion's triumph – the favourite of the second circular – the crisis of the ruling coalition will deepen. It cannot be excluded that, in this case, PSD, in order to establish relations with the president and avoid early elections, will search to form a coalition with AUR.

Comment

• As expected, the first circular of elections was definitely won by Simion. The AUR leader, who received only 14% of the vote in the first circular of the November 2024 nullified elections, benefited from the support of the far right and sympathetic Russia Călina Georgescu, the then winner who was not allowed to re-election. fresh polls indicated that Simion could anticipate about 30–33% of the vote of voters in the country, but it was clear that he would besides receive large support from the diaspora, representing as much as 10% of the full voters. As many as 60% of Romanians surviving outside the country have already supported AUR leader. Diaspora was besides of crucial importance in Dan's case – in this group he received 25% of support, which allowed him to almost overtake the candidate of the ruling coalition. The unexpected weak consequence was obtained by USR leader Lasconi (the polls gave her about 8%), which was mainly due to Dan's support by her own group. In the first circular of cancelled elections, she managed to win as many as 19% of the votes, but the mayor of Bucharest (a politician much more recognizable and skillier) did not participate in them, and a crucial proportion of her voters were the electorate of the protest, supporting politicians unrelated to the ruling establishment.
• The favourite of the second circular (18 May) is Simion, but the rivalry between him and Dan will be leveled. The AUR leader can number on both any of Ponta's supporters (who, like him, refers to anti-globalist and sovereignist narratives and emphasizes ideological proximity to the MEGA movement) and respective percent of PSD voters (who voted for Antonescu in the first round). Part of the electorate of social democrats – who have already declared that they will not officially support any of the contenders – sympathize with national slogans. At the same time, the majority of Antonescu's votes should attract Dan. He was officially supported by the PNL, and he will most likely be attracted by UDMR supporters who remember Simion’s anti-Hungarian appearances, and to-date Lasconi voters. We can besides anticipate greater mobilisation of the reluctant diaspora nationalists who will effort to halt the leader of AUR.
• The consequence of the vote is another blow in the ruling duo of PSD and PNL for decades. Both on 4 May and during the cancelled presidential election of late 2024, the establishment failed to bring its candidate into the second round, which had not yet occurred in Romania's past after 1989. This is yet another fresh proof of the increasing disappointment and fatigue of the electorate by the ruling elite, which decision to cancel the erstwhile elections only increased.
• The future of the coalition will depend on the final result of the presidential election. It seems that by deciding to leave it, the PSD is primarily trying to take the convenient position to renegotiate a coalition agreement with existing partners with PNL and UDMR. While these parties – wishing to stay in power – are doomed to cooperate with social democrats, PSD has any area for manoeuvre and has the possible to form a coalition with AUR. specified a script should not be excluded in the event of Simion's victory. However, it would be essential to introduce far-reaching changes in the management positions in the PSD – AUR powerfully stresses that it does not intend to cooperate with Ciolac.