The collapse of the russian Union caused major geopolitical changes in the region and in the world, closing the period of communism in this area. It besides began the post-Soviet era, which, after 3 decades, is inactive mostly about the destiny of a number of independent states formed on the ruins of the empire. For Russia, from the very beginning being the initiator, the core and the main decision-maker of the USSR, its dissolution marked serious safety challenges.
The territory of the State has been severely depleted, a areas, which before the minute was an integral part of it, they proved to be “foreign”, though close. This led to the weakening of the possible in each of the vital areas of the state – military, economical and political. Now. alone the the fact required a reassessment of the endurance strategy, forced the search for a fresh definition of himself and a trial to find an alternate to ideology whose aggregate possible has been exhausted.
W first, the process of decay and withdrawal from busy previously areas and impact zones. The second step was to go through to counteroffensive and return to power. One au components of this The strategy was to establish a fresh military bloc under leadership Moscow – Collective safety Agreement Organisation (OUBZ, oryg. ODB). This structure was to fill the gap created after the liquidation of the Warsaw Pact, while at the same time counterweighting the North Atlantic Alliance.
See also: Gagaus separatism as a manifestation of pro-Russian sympathy in the Republic of Moldova
Russian instruments of influence in the post-Soviet area
In the beginning years 90. in place Former ZSRS developed 15 republics. Outside Russia, on the map appeared independent: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Lithuania, Latvia Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan. They represented they several geographically and culturally different regions. W In this sense we can split eat on the Baltic countries, Asia Central, South Caucasus and Europe Eastern. Council Members different between directing its abroad policy. W a certain simplification, at this angle we can separate by contractual orientation prowestern, Pro-Russian and comparatively neutral attitude. Baltic countries inactive in Soviet period were distinguished by their drive to self-allocation and initiative to bring about a fall ZSRS. Just after independence, they took a clear course to the Westas return to your pre-union identity. In 2004 r. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have been the only erstwhile Republics of the USSR to join NATO. This. alone by OUBZ, which as an Organization formed 2 years earlier, began to be automatically seen as an east flank of a rival military alliance. Such the circumstances besides determined the conduct of certain military exercises whose planning included a possible attack from those three countries and Poland.
To countries with a alternatively pro-Russian attitude Score we can Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan and another countries of Central Asia. W We can draw attention to different circumstances in each of these cases. W The situation of Belarus is played by cultural and cultural similarities and shared history. For Armenia Russia is An crucial ally due to her loneliness in the conflict with neighbouring Azerbaijan, supported openly au member NATO Turkey. Situation of Moldova is specific due to the complex relations with Transnistria, in which besides Russian troops are stationed. Central Asian countries face adequate interior and external problems, that they are incapable to make effectively their statehood without resisting o the stronger center, and thus due ‘lack of alternatives” they are someway doomed to an alliance Russia.
W State arsenals have various toolsservants expanding the region of its influence by soft power methods. To they number both instruments of a political nature, economic and military, how to also cultural. By long time Russia has utilized skillfully series links, especially cultural, to exert force on neighbours. One of the pillars of Russian imperialism is the concept of so-called. Russian miru, based in.. on a community based on Russian and Orthodox. specified opportunities were inherited by her due to the fact that they were historically dependent. W In the case of more institutionalised forms of cooperation, basics to work out own Proposals, Some mention to erstwhile experience, in a certain case, straight based on solutions of competitors internationally. Just after the liquidation ZSRS Russia has so embarked on the creation of alternate structures to bind the erstwhile republics into a whole, to strengthen and depend on bonds Moscow. 1 au The first initiatives were Community Independent States – universal political organisation, which was to integrate countries on a voluntary and gradual basis former ZSRS, keeping for Moscow sureCommon type ‘,buffer area“. Originally components the military alliance and the preservation of a common strategical space were within the concept itself CIS, But they failed in a short time. specified The course of events led Russia to take steps to push through the implementation of its own military alliance concept directed against external threats. This 1 method 15 May 1992. in Tashkent, the Agreement is signed o Collective Security, ofArmenia was signed, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. W the following year au Azerbaijan besides joined the agreement, Georgia and Belarus?. Currently Azerbaijan, Georgia and Uzbekistan are no longer members.
Important, Ukraine has distanced itself from the very beginning from Strengthening this the kind of cooperation, remaining in a neutral position of multi-vector policy foreign, Having respect to the proposal from the Commission, independent relations au Russia and The West. Giving up atomic arsenal, This country received from leading planet powers, including Russia, declaration o support his territorial integrity and safety. The Budapest Memorandum became the expression, which, however, did not supply any guarantees for its demands and proved to be ineffective. After Sometime Azerbaijan, Georgia and Uzbekistan merged into separate Regional Organisation – GUAM (Organisation on Thing Democracy and Development), which was besides an expression of the desire to integrate into its own group, with the omission of Russia. In addition, Georgia, as well as after 2004. Ukraine has become increasingly inclined towards the Western option, applying for membership NATO. Both States at the Organisation Summit Pact North Atlantic in 2008 r. In Bucharest, they received the announcement of the Alliance's open door. Soon after Russia attacked Georgia and in 2014 annexed Crimea and actively supported separatists in east Ukraine. Generating disputes territorial thereby blocking the enemymilitary block. Then is purpose minimum — prevention development by a rival area that Russia considers to be its area vital interests. No. No. However, the activities of the Russian Federation itself should be identified au Actions OUBZ as an organization. Most of these operations were performed by Russia acting alone. It is. is caused by the essence of the relation within the Organization and the decomposition Strength inside her.
Potential andthe importance of OUBZ for Russia
Alone OUBZ does not present crucial military possible without Russia. Practically.She wouldn't have existed without her. O how much for NATO main player and decision-maker the United States remains, But it's in the founding alliance.Eat several another countries, having both atomic weapons as Powera deterrent agenthow also with its own enhanced possible military, with the production of weapons and the improvement of own technologies military. W case OUBZ Whereas none other associate outside Russia not has force and resources, which can effectively defy potential aggression by any power. It besides causes, that for Russia To strengthen these bonds is alternatively to impose their own will and formalCommon, institutionalized link between erstwhile satellites. No. No. may expect greater engagement from them, beyond the provision of their own territory and infrastructure and active cooperation in the form of carrying out military exercises. W each associate State OUBZ Russia has military bases. They are primarily a legacy, inherited from the russian Union. W This is what happens. one from the main objectives of this structure – legitimacy of Russian military presence in abroad territory. Also in the framework of regular organisations are joint military exercises, m. in. ‘Cooperation’, ‘Inviolable Brotherhood“, ‘Combat Brotherhood““. However, statutory OUBZ Not only does he deal with issues of direct attack on members of the external aggressor State. W her motion is to solve wide a scope of safety problems, including on drugs and terrorism. These. The second are peculiarly gaining on Importance in the context of Organisation activity in Central Asia, au Remarks in the vicinity of Afghanistan, in which the Taliban took over after 2021.
See also: Selected changes to Armenia's electoral system
Armed intervention in Kazakhstan
A major event in the functioning of OUBZ was the riot in Kazakhstan January 2022 year. Then the incumbent President Cash Zomart Tokaev youStepped to the Organization au official request for Grant help reconstruct order and stabilise the situation in the country. W nights from 5 to 6 January OUBZ decided to initiate anti-terrorism operations. W within respective days with Russian military aircraft were transferred to Kazakhstan just over 2,000. soldiers from Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Tajikistan — Collective quota Strength Operations Response. By with a mandate, given to them by OUBZ and respecting erstwhile declarations, they did not participate in the pacification of demonstrators. Their task was the protection of strategical facilities in Kazakhstan, such as airports, Power plants or even bakeries. Armed intervention in past OUBZ was unprecedented, Never before no it occurred direct launch This mechanism. For the Organisation and especially Russia itself was a test for efficiency, and first test of KSOR's ability to respond quickly. Besides, it was also military-political Kremlin signal sent to NATO and neighbouring countries, especially Ukraine. With cognition of later events, namely the armed invasion of Ukraine launched in the following month, we can hazard saying that the fast decision to launch the collective safety mechanics has affected the. in. desire MoAs shortly as possible, the situation in its Central Asian neighbor. This would unleash Russian military potential, preparing au to a decisive blow to Ukraine.
Perspectives
Thesis of the dominant role Russia and geographical proximity as the main factor, forcing neighbouring countries to cooperate within structures OUBZ, a au confirm in subsequent emergency situations. 1 of them occurred in June 2023.. At the time during the failed coup in Russia, whose effort was made by the leader of the private military structure Group Wagner Evgeny Prigozhyn, as part of the anti-crisis action President VladimirPutin Contacted associate state leaders OUBZ, inform them about the situation. The answer of the president of Kazakhstan is besides known, which in response He said, that events occurring in Russia They're her own business.. Even before, associate States OUBZ not very eager (with any exceptions) to implement initiatives within the Organisation. Yes., cooperate with Russia to the required extent, but waiting in return to guarantee their own safety, than by offering their own resources in the event of possible disputes between Russia and the parties third. After invasion of Ukraine in 2022 r., when The Russian Federation has been sanctioned and steps taken to isolate it internationally, cooperation with her began to affect carrying on higher costs. Smaller countries, such like Armenia, are in difficulty situation, They have no choice. However, for actors with more potential, such as Kazakhstan, the largest country in the region, bordering China, It's different.. After The removal from power of the long-standing dictator Nursultan Nazarbayev has adopted a more neutral and multi-vector attitude. Yes, Astana. still all duties apply, Following membership in the OUBZ, however, the situation with the “rebellion” Primogina makes it clear that Kazakhstan has no intention of entering Russia's rescue and endangering its own safety in purpose protection more powerful ally. Will rather stay passive observer as long as will be is possible. At the same time, he makes contact with both the Western worldhow also the People's Republic of China, with this slow independent au from the Kremlin and building up its negotiating position. For Russia, of course, this is not desirable, But the most crucial thing is, that Kazakhstan remains a associate of OUBZ.
Summary
Summary of the function and place specifically OUBZ in the abroad policy of the Russian Federation in the post-missile area, au assume that it plays an crucial role, justifying Russia's legitimate military presence in neighbouring countries and Not only that.It besides performs respective crucial functions. First It's for everyone. as a fuse guaranteeing that its associate does not enter the competitive block – NATO. Alone the the fact is adequate to relieve the Russian State of the large effort active in securing the border with another neighbor and standby in each surrounding region. The longer the limit to fill, with this The Russian authorities would be more hard to meet This challenge. Thus membership of this structure of Kazakhstan, With which Russia has the longest land border au world, is a serious safety component Russia. Kazakhstan, like Ukraine, is sometimes considered her So called. ‘soft lower abdomen“ Possible control of These areas would give possible competitors a immense advantage. Belarus is integrated into the Russian defence strategy not only within the framework OUBZ, but also mostly based on membership of the Union State of Russia and Belarus. Armenia due to complex relationships au Azerbaijan and request in post- I don't think sitting down a powerful defender would be. will be able to quit cooperation au Russia. Central Asian countries facing many problems as well as dangerous neighbourhoods in the form of Afghanistan, they besides deficiency the possible to guarantee a sense of safety on their own. W The Russian Federation appears to be their natural ally.. W in exchange for the support offered to weaker allies it benefits in the form of the anticipation to install its own military infrastructure in the region, thereby strengthening its defence capabilities and deterrent potential.
The article was originally published in the quarterly “Think Sovereign. Review of Public Affairs’ No 1(11)/2023.
photo of Getty Images
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