One of the most popular and abused metaphors of present is the 1 about the abandonment of an unwise, naive and ever-unripe Europe by America, which held her parental responsibilities – acting in a function as anyone prefers, mommy, daddy or a good uncle. Now Mom and Dad have billed the kid for the apartment, his uncle yet got angry and took the presents, and the kid disappointed and bitter must grow up in an accelerated way. erstwhile you think about it, this metaphor has no deeper meaning.
What kind of parents rise a kid like that? And did anyone truly think that the metaphor of household relations adequately describes relations between European and US countries after 1945? What about after 1989? And if the U.S. has truly been babysitting EU countries for respective twelve - as any believe - then does Washington not bear at least a crucial part of the work for the "disarmament" of the continent and the relocation of the industrial base to China in the name of globalisation and free markets promoted by subsequent American administrations? So many good questions, so fewer answers.
Today, however, the US is breaking another taboo in 1 effort and embarrassing the spells we have given over the years - that we cannot negociate with Russia and Putin will stay a pariah; that the safety of east Europe is not tradeable; that arms spending above 2% of GDP guarantees preferential treatment by Washington; and so on. This does not mean that Trump will make a deal with Russia on these conditions, "leave" Ukraine and Europe, and that the course will not change radically (in the face of possible fiasco of talks). But this means that the assumptions we were told to believe in Poland proved to be of small value.
I think we could find a better metaphor to describe what's going on. I will give the answer “what?” at the end of this text. But it is adequate to say that if individual is simply a transactional approach of the U.S. and Trump administration amazed and may feel abandoned by Mommy and Daddy, then not the governments of France, large Britain or even Germany - but Poleswho have invested so much love in this parenting relation and so profoundly internalized their relation with the US. possibly that is why they are equally eager to get this metaphor.
Because it is actual that the planet of the Polish political class and many experts on abroad policy and the east collapsed. The only thing they were certain of – that you can and should trust on the US – turned out not to be forged in stone. And something that was equal to the confession of religion and identity declaration, namely the conviction of cowardice, credulity, and unpredictability of Europe (the eternal Western "responsibility") proved to be more actual with respect to Washington than with Berlin, Paris or London. For so long, they have threatened the “second Munich” that erstwhile the “second Munich” happened, they must openly deny it and negate the communicative that happens in front of them.
As 1 of the commentators wrote (unironically) - "I did not anticipate the French president to defend the interests of Ukraine and east Europe from the US". Of course he didn't. The full operating strategy of reasoning of Polish elites was built on the presumption that this could not happen. Especially uncomfortable are those who have invested a lot in writing about the fact that “French tanks have 5 gears and all backwards” or that “Macron carried the telephone to the service due to the fact that Putin no longer calls him.” Today, erstwhile the next summits on the future of Ukraine and a possible truce or continuation of support are organised not by Poles and the Polish Presidency in the EU, but by Paris, London, Brussels or Riyadh – there is besides no minute of glory for those who have stubbornly argued that Paris and Berlin have compromised, and "European decision-making centre moved east". But the problem is wider. That's where we get to the point.
Why is the conduct of Washington – although it was to be read from dozens of public declarations and announcements – shocking the Polish expert class and making our politicians unenviable? Visit it: due to the fact that it is simply a mistake in the matrix of our reasoning about the planet and a compromise for our scripts - signposts we took for granted, convinced that due to history, moral advantages and experiences, we realize the seriousness of Russia better than others, the importance of American presence on the European continent and fundamental challenges to the safety of the world.
All subsequent Polish ruling teams after 1989 adopted 1 rule in abroad policy: “We do things that we are not asked to do; in the hope of a reward that we were not promised.”. What was general modus operandi As far as the West is concerned, the United States has taken a peculiar form. In relations with the U.S., the paradigm of “insulation”, “impression” or “seduction” prevailed.
He said: If we can prove to Washington that we are a good and valuable ally, he will keep that in head and possibly even reciprocate our feelings. And erstwhile we go even further than others and further than the expectations expressed towards us (for which we do not request a reward or our business) the chance that our behaviour will impress the another side and pay off in the future, greater.
Which means, even if we weren't promised anything in exchange for Afghanistan, Iraq, CIA torture until the release of Paul Rubcov in the exchange of prisoners and the suspension of the action of the global Criminal Courts against the suspected crimes of Benjamin Netanjah, that does not mean that 1 day individual will not remember this and will not treat us according to another standard given the account of the erstwhile favors1. Even in human relationships, this would be a hazard and hazard of inevitable disappointment. In interstate relations, much less.
However, the apparent problem with this approach (The United States of America is not a person, so it is impossible for them to "impress" or "wander" or awaken any of their feelings due to the fact that they do not have them) never appeared on the horizon of reasoning of our political elites. due to the fact that he didn't have to.
As long as the US's interest was even in the most fleeting way consistent with the Polish interest, Polish elites thought it was the same. For example: the NATO expansion made for rather superficial reasons was taken by Polish elites for the full next 4th of the century forward as proof that the US accepts our safety priorities as its own. So, at least he shares the belief that aggressive Russia is simply a threat No. 1 to the world, and takes on a commitment to hazard a 3rd planet war (which they did not even want with the USSR) over the peripheral boundaries from the point of view of the safety of the US states. Spoiler: They did not think so and were not ready (and all the more eager). In short, the U.S. of Clinton's time wanted to extend NATO to Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary not due to the fact that Russia was strong and feared, but due to the fact that it was weak and in no script assumed that they would actually gotta defy its aggression on fresh allies. Ukraine was not accepted into the Alliance due to this, too.2.
Over time, Polish elites went so far as to cheat themselves, that they did not even request to produce peculiarly aggressive propaganda or to work them out – the uninvited ones themselves repeated the spells of a fresh cult, spoke the language of the empire reasoning that they spoke the purest native speech, yet surpassed in guessing his wishes and going against them before even being spoken. Bene Gesserit of American hegemony would die of unemployment in Poland.
Trump's behaviour (but not unique to him, but a somewhat more brutal and abroad continuation of tendencies in American politics) leads to a fundamental short circuit.
If we were raised and socialized to think that our stepping on Washington would pay off, then the minute of trial just arrived. I mean, if we were expecting pay for Iraq, Afghanistan, CIA torture, suspension of the ICC, Rubcov edition, arms spending, then this minute of pay should come right now. He's not coming.
Poland has not only not received any peculiar place at the table, it has not received it at all so far. Stachanowski's efforts of Minister Sikorski and president Duda Shuttle Diplomacy the last weeks, the aim is to accomplish something that – if the assumptions of the Polish global policy were actual – we were to get it anyway and someway deserved it. And that's not there. Reality – her name present Trump, but it might as well have been individual else – said I am checking.
After 3 years of saying that the centre of Europe is moving east, it turns out that Poland did not get any (or almost none) of the things it sought from Fort Trump and the constant presence of American soldiers in our expected form, by utilizing Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine or defend Europe, to contracts for this reconstruction, to pronounce an act constituting NATO-Russia, to even a prestigious place as a peacekeeper. It would be malicious to say that after everything we've invested, we mean little than Saudi Arabia, which president Biden promised to make a pariah not so long ago.
This cannot be understood by the Polish elite. After all, according to their own assumptions, they did everything right.
And here I return to the promised metaphor. This is not about abandoning or orphaning. It would be better to say that the U.S. has updated the operating system, and we have remained on the old, another we do not know, our scripts and software were built only under this 1 and in the fresh work it cannot. Our politicians want to change that, but they have a flawed code, they have not yet been given access to fresh programs, they have never allowed them to be needed.
The thought that the U.S. can not only rhetorically or occasionally, but truly appreciate the arrangement of relations with Russia over tactical and strategical calculations of Poland was unimaginable - it did not fit into the logic of Polish software elites built on cold war and Reagan foundations. Even if the cyclical resets from the USSR or Russia are in the code of the US operating system.
Now the question is whether our old strategy can lift reality again. due to the fact that he's suspended for now.
You can argue – what I am open to! – whether it was right, stupid, or possibly the only possible. However, it is hard to argue that this was an existing approach and that there was a cross-party agreement on it. The line of arguments following this lead can be drawn from Alexander Kwasniewski (and Iraq) by Andrzej Duda and Mateusz Morawiecki (Fort Trump, the preferential treatment of American corporations, the organisation of an “anti-Iran” conference in Poland, until the arrangement with Saudi Arabia, not to mention the military spending and the performance deterioration of relations with another EU countries under Trump), until Donald Tusk and Andrzej Duda (the suspension of the action of the global Criminal Court in Poland under Netanyahu or the signalling of force on Ukraine to agree to Trump conditions). There are no shortages of analysts present who emphasize that Poland - even in the case of the ICC and Netanyahu - goes further than any American expectations.
This is what Western diplomats and any of the Ukrainian political elite themselves have said (and many another controversial from today's point of view), as documented in his loud 1996 text Anatol Lieven.
