For a long time, the political reality in Poland has been shaped by 2 groups – Law and Justice (neoconservatives) and the Civic Platform (neoliberals). The Alliance of the Democratic Left (Social Liberals) has erstwhile played an crucial role, but this group has lost its importance.
Despite the apparent differences highlighted for the usage of subsequent electoral campaigns, in the most crucial issues (economic transformation and geopolitical issues), these groups were and are inactive compatible. The direction of changes after 1989 from the beginning was aimed at closing, or importantly reducing the industrial possible of Poland and making our country a marketplace for Western countries. This was accompanied by adverse changes in ownership for Polish society, including sale for priceless national assets and drainage of resources.
On geopolitical issues, Poland has adopted a clearly pro-Western orientation, whether in the pro-German/pro-European variant (Civil Platform) or pro-American (Law and Justice). The expression was treated as a dogma of the quest for integration with the European Union and NATO, followed by the uncritical implementation of abroad power-makers' policies. The political forces that in any way questioned this direction of change were brutally fought and eliminated from public life. This is illustrated by the example of self-defense and earlier organization X Stanisław Tymiński. Polish democracy can so be called a controlled and top-controlled democracy.
All this makes rationally and independently reasoning citizens, guided by collective interest and common sense, do not see a good choice. However, it is incorrect to think that this situation may constitute an alibi for inaction and indifference. Even if we have a choice between proverbial plague and cholera, we should objectively measure which of these diseases is more dangerous at the moment. Inadequacy or inaction can have disastrous consequences. An example of specified a mistake was, for example, the massive support of Solidarity in the 1989 contract elections. Of course – the choice of representatives of the old arrangement was not a good solution either, due to the fact that the Polish United Workers organization in the late 1980s exhausted its possible and had no ideas for the future. PZPR activists were mostly motivated not by ideological motivations but by selfishness and peculiar interests. The consequence of this was an agreement with part of the opposition at the circular Table. Of course, the negative direction of change for Poland itself was beyond stopping, but greater support for the party-government organization could undoubtedly slow down the pace of changes and alleviate the painful effects of reforms on most people.
At the minute erstwhile making political choices, 1 should consider what is the biggest threat to Poland and Poles. Undoubtedly, the top danger is to bring Poland into the war in Ukraine, and in the long word the anticipation of transforming war activities into a planet conflict. It is an existential threat to our nation, and possibly (with the worst possible script of events) to all mankind. From this point of view, it is not crucial whether a organization is right-wing or left-wing, whether it wants to increase or lower taxes, whether it advocates majority or proportional ordination. Historical and worldview differences besides fall on the second plan. The most crucial thing should be to push the war away.
From this perspective, the worst possible scenarios for Poland will surely be a triumph in the upcoming parliamentary elections of the Law and Justice. It would mean further military support for Ukraine, which inevitably leads to an extension and, worse, escalation of the conflict. Of course, Ukraine besides supports the Civic Platform and another groups of liberal opposition. What is different, however, is moral and propaganda support, and what is different is military aid and active commitment to conflict. Despite all his flaws Donald Tusk is simply a rational politician and I do not think he intends to send Poles to the Ukrainian front. This cannot be said of Jarosław Kaczyński and his immediate surroundings. These are people possessed by anti-Russian obsessions, which is expressed by a blind belief in the Smolensk assassination. Secondly, unlike the Citizens' Platform, the Law and Justice organization implements the clearly pro-American option with all its geopolitical consequences. It should besides be stressed that while the Citizens' Platform alternatively submits to its patrons from the EU who do not necessarily want to escalate the war, the Law and Justice organization in the field of military support Ukraine frequently goes ahead and is more extremist than its leaders.
There is another crucial reason to support the opposition in the upcoming elections. Well, under the regulation of Law and Justice, Poland is increasingly becoming an authoritarian and inconsiderate state. The ruling organization repeatedly expressed its contempt for the regulation of law. We all remember a public violation of the Constitution during the COVID-19 pandemic. Under the pretext of fighting the pandemic, the power did not hesitate to violate constitutional rights and civilian liberties under the regulation. Vladimir Putin now took the coronavirus site. In the event of further escalation of the war, politicians of the Law and Justice organization will surely not step back before the state of emergency/war and the limitation of citizens' rights under the appearance of a Russian threat. Draft amendments are already being prepared to let for confiscation of property without a court judgment, only on the basis of the presumption of support for Russia.
Do we gotta choose between the plague and the cholera? Here I worry political romantics and all fantasy ointments – at the minute there is no 3rd way. Only these 2 forces can truly take power in Poland – the ruling camp and the liberal opposition. Despite good poll results, the Confederate has no chance. At the most, this group can statistic in the parliament without having a major influence on political decisions, or become a PiS "appetition" (in the absence of a parliamentary majority). There is no uncertainty that a large proportion of Confederate politicians (most of them from the National Movement) already number on participation in power and profits from it.
The tradition of supporting the Law and Justice by self-appointed nationalists is not fresh – it is worth mentioning here specified names as: Bąkiewicz, Andrushkiewicz, or Romankowski. It should be stressed that anti-system environments related to Gregory Braun are clearly marginalised in the Confederacy and are of small importance. erstwhile the request arises and the political interest is in favour, the environment of Grzegorz Braun will most likely be eliminated. Therefore, the vote given to the Confederate will either not substance or supply indirect support to the PiS. So if we consider the PiS to be a plague, then the only sensible choice is cholera? I'd usage a small different comparison. At the moment, the Civic Platform (including coalitions) is simply a severe and devastating cold, but Law and Justice are possibly fatal pneumonia. I leave my conclusions to the voters.
Michał Radzikowski
Think Poland, No. 27-28 (2-9.07.2023)
