“Pride walks before the fall, and haughty spirit before the ruin”
(Proverbs 16:18)
Listening to the words of president Nawrocki, it is hard not to remember this Bible warning. reasoning about Trzaskovsky's run the same way.
He won the election – but minimally. Those who did not vote for him did not disappear. They are inactive part of the Polish nation, and in their Polishness they do not quit on those who bet on it. respect for the Polish nation means respect for all citizens – no substance who they voted for. No 1 has the right to exclude anyone.
President Nawrocki must realize that insulting the government of Donald Tusk offends 11 624 868 Poles and Poles who elected this government in the 2023 election. That's almost half the nation that's voting. And he must remember that it was the nation who entrusted the power of a democratic coalition.
It is besides worth recalling the powers of the government in Poland and the President. Poland is not the United States, and Nawrocki is not Trump. We have a government and the president can only act constructively if he cooperates with the parliamentary majority. Otherwise, he remains either the function of political decoration, or the demolition of the process of governing, or grotesque “threats” of laws that supposedly make us all healthy, rich and happy.
Causes of Election
1. Results of the II round
Nawrocki: 10 606 628 votes
Trzaskowski: 10 237 177 votes
Difference: 369 451 votes
More than 10 million citizens did not vote for Nawrocki – almost half of the electorate. Reason for modesty, Mr. President!
2. Turnout
In the 2nd circular of the presidential election, attendance was lower by 933 434 people compared to the elections to the Sejm. The question is: which candidate did the electorate not support?
3. Election results for the Sejm (2023)
Democratic coalition: 11 624 868 votes
Other committees: 9 971 806 votes
There were more voters of democratic parties by 1 653 062 than all others. And yet Nawrocki won the presidency only by 369 451 votes. This suggests 1 thing: over 1.5 million voters of the democratic option simply "disappeared" at the urns.
4. Comparison of votes to the Sejm and to Trzaskowski in II round
Democratic Coalition: 11 624 868 votes
Trzaskowski (II ture): 10 237 286 votes
There were 1,387,582 voters who supported the Tusk government in the parliamentary election. It was this absence that determined Nawrocki's victory.
Why did this happen?
Research indicates 3 main reasons for deterring voters of the democratic option:
failure to settle the Law and Justice and president Duda for breaking the regulation of law, nepotism and corruption,
no law on legal abortion by week 12,
no law on partnerships.
One can argue that this could not be achieved – due to the fact that the prosecution is not a folk tribunal, and both laws would veto president Duda anyway. But that doesn't change the fact that Donald Tusk, Vladimir Czarzasty, Simon Holovnia and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamish could not convincingly explain it to millions of their voters.
Effect? Over a million sympathizers of the democratic coalition did not go to the urns – and this just opened the way of Nawrock.
The fact is so simple: Nawrocki did not win so much as the democratic option She lost. – due to the deficiency of mobilisation of its own electorate.
