"In principle, of course, temporary administration could be established in Ukraine under the auspices of the United Nations, the United States, European countries and our partners" — Putin said during a visit to the northern port town of Murmansk, where he spoke to sailors from the atomic submarine Archangelsk.
But if Trump truly falls into this trap, the consequences will be far-reaching. “Putin leads Trump by the nose, as he did during the first word of American presidency,” says Frank Sauer, a politician at the University of the national Armed Forces in Munich.
Why is Putin making this proposal right now?
— Avoiding concessions makes Trump busy and can meantime proceed military action against Ukraine, says Sauer.
Russia has a comparatively strong military position. In fresh months Putin has been able to get territories in east Ukraine. In Murmansk, he one more time seemed assured in victory. Putin said the Ukrainian troops were on the verge of full defeat. "There are reasons to believe that we will give them a coup de grace," he argued.
— Contrary to Putin's high-profile claims, Ukraine is not on the brink of military defeat “ Ulrich Schmid of St. Gallen University explains. However, the situation may become critical in the summertime if the western arms supply is not realised.
“ Schmid,” he said.
Therefore, Putin now resorts to the trick of making the West a peace offering. This is to look like a compromise, but in fact it serves to transform all Ukraine into a Russian vassal state.
What does this mean for ongoing negotiations?
“ Frank Sauer says.
Putin simulates Russia's readiness to negotiateThis is Schmid. He wants to make Ukraine look like a website that refuses peace. “ In this way, he wants to wipe out the fact that Russia itself started this war and thus violated the basic articles of the United Nations Charter,” the analyst points out.
Putting Ukraine under the administration of the United Nations is an unacceptable thought for Kiev, as this would undermine the legality of the current government under president Volodimir Zelenski. This movement could besides possibly give Russia an influence on the creation of a fresh government.
Could the US accept this proposal?
— It is hard to say due to the incompetent and inconsistent policy of the White House,” says Sauer.
Schmid stresses that "the White House's first reactions are cautious". However, given Russia's previously friendly position of the Trump administration, nothing can be ruled out. “ Trump had previously called for fresh elections in Ukraine and called Zelenski a ‘dictator’,” he adds.
In the end, the agreement that grants Russia control of Ukrainian territories would besides suit Trump, argues Schmid.
“ He explains.
Can the U.S. let Putin to drag Ukraine into his sphere of influence?
“ Yes, ” answers Frank Sauer. “ Trump already agreed in his first telephone call to all Russia’s maximum demands towards Putin,” he adds.
— Eventually, Trump’s administration does not care about the destiny of Ukraine, according to Schmid. The real opponent for Trump administration is China. “The Trump Bromans with Putin must besides be seen in this context,” explains the expert. Trump administration dreams of relaxing between the US and Russia, which can besides be utilized economically.
“ Schmid says.
Is there a will in the Kremlin to bring peace?
— Unfortunately not at the moment, says Sauer. But 1 thing is clear to him: If the US accepted Putin's latest proposal, it would be a disaster for Ukraine and the remainder of Europe.
Putin wants to weaken Ukraine even more and direct negotiations in your favor. He's inactive counting on victory, not compromise.
