American experts Institute for War Studies in fresh years, they have observed an increase in Russian offensive activities in Donetsk circuit (Pokrowsk and Lyman), Zaporosian and Substantial Circuit in the north of Ukraine.
In the last case, the goal of the Russians is to force the Ukrainians to completely retreat from positions in Russian Chicken circuit.
Moscow is getting closer. They want to “seed chaos”
The ISW underlines that Moscow has not made crucial advancement in these directions so far. Ukrainian forces They are inactive able to counterattack in the Donetsk Oblast.
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On the another hand, the Russian troops have approached the borders of the Donetsk and djepropetrovsk circuits for 3 kilometres and, as the analysts point out, "Kreml will most likely usage future Russian advancement (...) to sow chaos and fear in the information space".
Silence in the air. The Russians have a plan.
The ISW points out that Russian command will most likely not shift its forces from the Kursk region if Moscow's goal is to launch an attack on Sumy in the north of Ukraine. In addition, the Kremlin does not have adequate operational reserves to attack simultaneously Sums, Kharkivs and Zaporozhes, without moving troops already deployed on another sections of the front.
"It is improbable that the Russian military will be able to carry out three crucial offensives against the major cities of Ukraine, Even after regrouping, as Russia has suffered crucial losses in armored vehicles and people during the last 3 years of fighting," ISW analysts indicate.
They besides add that there are presently no reports from open sources that propose shifting forces to the directions of Sum, Kharkiv and Zaporozh from another parts of the front. So what is the Kremlin's goal?
Negotiating offensive. fresh demands of the Kremlin
According to ISW The Russians want to get closer to Sum, Kharkiv and Zaporozh adequate to make cities within their artillery range. This is intended to supply ground for land operations before the ceasefire and the anticipation of paralyzing civilian lives.
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In this way, Moscow wants to gain an advantage in peace negotiations and “justify Russia's future demands, for Ukraine to pass on additional territories, including territories which the Kremlin does not yet demand,” ISW analysts claim.
