Putin de facto refused full 30-day ceasefire during 90-minute telephone call to US president Donald Trump. Shortly after this conversation Russia launched a drone attack over Kiev and another Ukrainian cities.
Offering a diplomatic minimum, the Russian leader said he would abstain from attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure for 30 days.
Overall, Trump and his prycat squad of peculiar envoys, household members and presidential buddies seem more likely to bring Russia closer together on wider geopolitical issues than truly press Putin on Ukraine.
The Kremlin in its interview study long emphasized the thought of a wide reset on the Washington-Moscow line — in subjects ranging from economical cooperation to ice hockey — and it lacked anything that would seem like a crucial peace agreement for the Ukrainians.
As a sign that a real breakthrough is simply a distant prospect, Russia has firmly adhered to its maximumist demands, demanding end of military and intelligence assistance for Kiev, at the same time, in order to correct the "primary causes" of the war, the Cremolian abbreviation means the disemboweling of democracy in Ukraine and the thwarting of the country's political trajectory towards NATO and the EU.
Follow Volodya’s footsteps
Trump's camp shows that he's besides ready to go to Putin's hand, which deliberately mixes the various stages of Ukraine negotiations, changing their order to guarantee that the final agreement is decisively in favour of Russia or to avoid a complete ceasefire.
In fresh weeks, the Russian leader and his most crucial advisors have determined their red lines for peace agreement — conditions that would teardrop Ukraine to pieces. They want a warrant that Ukraine will never join NATO; that it will stay geopolitically neutral and incapable to control its own fate, with serious weapon restrictions.
Moscow besides wants Crimea and the 4 east circuits it considers to be part of the Russian Federation to be considered to be specified on the global stage. Moscow besides excluded the deployment of European troops to monitor any agreed peace agreement.
Instead of waiting for formal peace talks, The Kremlin is now trying to force an agreement on its red lines by holding a proposal to suspend the weapon as a hostage without having to formally reject it — the second would be a decision that could anger Trump. Trump promised to impose more sanctions against Moscow if Putin does not commit to a peace agreementBut at least he's allowing the Russian president to velocity up this diplomatic game.
Famous Handbook game
Some commentators say Putin hesitates, playing on time and is incapable to make a decision. But it can besides be said that he simply dips into the textbook he utilized earlier. Like he did with the American negotiators on Syria, forces his interlocutors to delve into the labyrinth of conditions and "source reasons", trying to exhaust them and either manages to safe its main objectives, or leads to endless exchanges.
From the Kremlin's point of view, negotiations are a continuation of war — only another means.
By reversing the negotiation process, Putin receives a helpful hand from Trump's team.
U.S. president and his peculiar envoy Steven Witkoff have already discussed the terms of the settlement to effort to get an agreement on the ceasefire, while Trump and Putin have been talking about “grounds”, “electricity” and “sharing any assets” against any “official” peace talks.
Before talking to Putin this week, Trump praised on his actual Social social media platform that “many elements of the final agreement were agreed”.
If Ukraine had opposed the presentation of its facts, Putin could just blame Kiev for any breakdown of negotiations, which would include Trump's rhetoric, which would then state that Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenski are black characters.
Trump's squad has already clearly shown its contempt for Zelenski. This was publically visible during ugly clash at the Oval Office in February. It besides became apparent backstage, thanks secret talks between Trump entourage members and Zelenski's national political rivalsPOLITICO revealed earlier this month.
These talks were part of an American effort to gain support for early elections — which they are convinced Zelenski would lose despite current public opinion polls indicating otherwise.
POLITICO has since contacted all 4 to get a comment on the talks, but has not received an answer.
“They see Zelenski as an obstacle,” says a Republican abroad policy expert. — How can we weaken Zelenski and make him more submissive? Well, by involving his political opponents and showing him that the United States has another Ukrainian partners and another options, he adds.
— But I think that most of Trump's world, or at least a part of it, is deluded by reasoning that they can anoint individual in Ukraine to their partner and win electoralally in the short or average word erstwhile elections are held,” he points out. “It is mostly a deficiency of knowing of Ukraine.
There may besides be any illusion as to what Putin is up to, who tries to dictate the general terms of the final agreement before they halt working. Their acceptance will make the Russian president accomplish the main nonsubjective of war: Subordination of Ukraine and keeping it in Moscow's hands.
“Putin seems to have been partially successful by holding a proposal to suspend his arms as a hostage as part of his efforts to get overtaking concessions from U.S. president Donald Trump in negotiations to end the war,” he notes in a akin spirit the Institute for the survey War.
"Putin tries to change the conversation series to force Trump to advance concessions on issues that are not part of the U.S.-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire, but are part of Russian war targets," warns think tank.
