The invasion of drones over Poland and Romania, the jet rally over Estonia's territorial waters, the hacking attacks on critical infrastructure and the arson of public utility facilities in east flank countries, or the intensification of spy operations aimed at NATO members – this is simply a catalogue of Russian activity registered in fresh weeks. Russia's hybrid war has set in motion, but what is behind it? Is Moscow truly seeking an open confrontation with the Alliance?
Despite the clear escalation and the inactive fueled, hostile rhetoric of Russian propaganda towards the West, specified a script seems highly unlikely. There is no reason for the Russians to prepare for the imminent, hot war with NATO. Their armed forces inactive stay engaged in Ukraine, the end of this conflict can't be seen, though, even the hopes of its freezing after Donald Trump's diplomacy failures can already be regarded as burning.
Voice of the “Old West”
Russian provocations seem to aim at fueling a war of nerves. The intimidation of Central European societies here is simply a tool for achieving long-term objectives, mainly demobilisation. To put it plainly, the Kremlin wants to bring about a situation where we Poles (and not only Poles) will mostly think: “Let us agree to the conditions of the Russians, then they will halt tormenting us.” This includes both support for Ukraine and the Moscow-awaited submission of erstwhile demols, including their surrender to independence.
It is not just about intimidation and the benefits of this for Russia. Moscow is besides investigating NATO's reactions as a whole, wanting to know at what point it will hear a hard “no!” on its way to the restoration of the Russian sphere of influence in Europe. First of all, it is the voice of the “old West”, and mainly of America. With this approach, it becomes crucial to give Putin his paws at a comparatively early phase of this confrontation, erstwhile – in view of the interest of Poland (and the Baltic countries) – red lines do not go besides far.
An offensive drowned in blood
However, these calculations do not full reflect the motivations that the Kremlin is following, intensifying its provocation to NATO. Moscow is besides exacerbating tension due to the causes of the conflict in Ukraine and the intra-Russian consequences of this war. The goal is to make a more spectacular Alliance reaction, which in turn would let Russian propaganda to further grow its wings on the subject of Western threat. The expected effect is 1 that sociologists and social psychologists call gathering around the flag. The actions of external forces, seen as hostile, have the power to bring society closer to power, and it is this kind of mobilization of Russians that Putin cares about. Why?
Smoke over city buildings after mass attacks of Russian drones and rockets, Lviv 12 July 2025.
To answer that question, you request to look at Ukraine. Despite the pushy Russian communicative that the Ukrainian army is in constant retreat, the front has been standing since November 2022. Since then, the Russians have occupied only 6,000 km2 of Ukraine, which corresponds to little than the percent of pre-war land. And they lost over a million soldiers – killed, wounded, taken prisoner – and tens of thousands of units of equipment. late their next offensive ended, in the Sumic region, which, like intense attacks in the Pokrovsk region of Donbasa, was drowned in blood. There is no breakthrough, no argument according to which it is not about territories at all, but about physical demolition of the opponent, it is increasingly hard to base on facts. Despite the brutal hammering on the front, the Ukrainian army has strengthened, and Ukraine's economy, including the armory, manages in the realities of frequent Russian drone-missile strikes. Furthermore, Kiev late allowed men aged 18-22 to leave the country, which undermines the communicative that Ukraine lacks recruits and will shortly fall due to the fact that there will be no 1 to carry a gun. Since administrative constraints have been removed, it is clearly not so bad, and the abolition itself must be received as a message sent to Moscow: “to make us specified gestures!”
For NATO to show claws
Meanwhile, for Putin and his associates, the war against Ukraine is simply a game of everything. In the sense that it is hard to imagine a script in which they will hold power after defeat. The fact that after 4 years of “special military operation” profits are so poor, and losses so terrible, cannot be dressed in triumph robes. specified skills are not even Russian propaganda, and this state of affairs induces Kremlin's determination to a very advanced level. The war must continue, Russia must get something else. Something to be sold as a spectacular success, after which the Russian society will forget the victims.
But how do we do that erstwhile the army on the front just lacks strength? 700,000 Russian soldiers are presently fighting in Ukraine – the most since the start of the full-scale war. And that's not adequate to break the Ukrainians. A further extension of the quota could be the answer. The problem is that the recruiting campaign, which has been launched to the limit, allows small to do more than cover current losses. In fact, the Russians are no different from the large (relatively) money – the stock of which at the state registry is melting at an alarming rate. Forced mobilisation in place of a volunteer haul? Yes, this is simply a solution, but at the hazard of the so-far protected large-town, "white" Orthodox Russia. This 1 agrees to war on condition that it is run by the hands of a mediocre ethnically different province, and does not intend to send his boys to it. However, in the script of universal mobilization these "better" Federation citizens would gotta go to the army. How do we lure them to him? A communicative about the dangerous West that lies on parent Russia. Just “bad NATO” provoke to show teeth and claws. In self-defense? The Russians don't get their heads caught in these details...
