Left slow communicates the names of its electoral list leaders. We're expected to meet them in all 41 constituency this week. From what we've seen so far, you can see any defensiveness.
Outside the Warsaw district, the Left most likely does not presume that it will win 2 tickets in another districts. In 2019 with a nationwide score of 12.56% it was successful in 12 districts. Left views are more common among the inhabitants of large cities, the natural turn of things is that in districts without major cities, the election consequence of the Left is weaker. There were 6 districts in the election 4 years ago where Left had besides small support to get the first ticket. The PiS received over 50% support in these districts, due to the fact that the inhabitants of these regions of Poland have more conservative views and for many of them in October the choice will be between the PiS and the Confederation.
Figure 1. Number of votes (in thousands) won in constituency by the Left and number of mandates (colours) obtained in the 2019 Sejm election.
This year, the problem of constituency, where the Left may not get adequate support for the first constituency mandate, will most likely be even more severe. Left polling support has been increasing in fresh weeks and present is about 10%. I want the Left, like another parties to the democratic opposition, the best election result. beginning electoral lists for civilian candidates is simply a good move, and an effectively led electoral run can make the consequence akin to that of 2019. This means that in these 6 constituencies, where Left did not win any 2019 mandate, there is no large chance of a parliamentary mandate. This can change non-sabling actions.
The Left, if it comes to non-conventional electoral rules, can gain 3 additional parliamentary mandates, most likely all at the expense of the Law and Justice or the Confederation. He can get it in these districts:
– territory No 12 – Kraków I, comprising districts south of Krakow, is selected here 8 MPs
– territory 15 – Tarnów, 9 Members are elected here
– territory 18 – Siedlce, 12 Members are elected here.
The provision for an additional mandate is different for Małopolskie and Mazowieckie districts. Both mention to the electoral wisdom of the left-wing electorate, but it seems to be a safe assumption.
District 12 and 15 – local alliance of the Left with KO
The Malopolska districts No. 12 and 15 are circumstantial – no large cities, conservative residents and fewer elected MPs – 8 for territory No. 12 and 9 for territory No. 15. The number of elected Members translates into a advanced electoral threshold in these districts. In order to win 1 mandate, you request to get support of about 9-10% for territory 12 and about 8.2 – 9.5% for territory 15. With a very advanced probability, bordering certainly, the Left in 2023 in these districts will not accomplish specified a result.
The method for additional mandates in Małopolska is not to study your own list in these 2 districts and to agree with KO that the individual who was to be the “one” of the Left will take off (for example from number 10) on the list of the Civic Coalition. There is no request to study electoral lists in all constituencies and the Left can benefit from this. The left-wing election run in these 2 places will then be focused on promoting the 2 names of left-wing candidates appearing on the KO lists. Additional votes from left-wing voters placed on the KO list will consequence in this list getting 1 extra mandate in these 2 districts. In order for these mandates to actually be won by left-wing candidates, they must have an election consequence of more than 15,000 votes, then they will most likely have a second or 3rd consequence on the KO list and become MPs.
KOs on specified a local agreement will not lose anything, due to the fact that these additional votes of the left voters will win extra tickets. In 2019, in territory 12, the full list of Lefties received 26.9 1000 votes, in territory 15 – 20.6 1000 votes. So winning 15,000 votes in each of these 2 districts is as real as possible. In the Parliament of the future word these Members will join the parliamentary club of the Left.
Figure 2. Results of the vote on the Citizens' Coalition list in constituency no. 12 in the 2019 parliamentary election, origin of PKW.
This was how the 2019 KO results in territory 12 looked. Dorota Sunday and Marek Owl, who became MPs, received over 18,000 votes. If the Left candidate had competed on the list of KOs in 2019 and brought around 15,000 votes, he would have won an additional ticket. This would have no impact on who the candidates became MPs.
I know that among the left-wing electors there is simply quite a few concern that the start of a left-wing candidate on a single list with people, any of whom have centred beliefs, can end with their voices bringing in a individual to the Sejm, with whom the Left disagrees. In 2019, this could happen if the Left candidate obtained a worse consequence than the 3rd KO candidate, which is little than 9,820 votes. That would be an improbable result, given that the leftist's list had 26.9 1000 votes. Nor would specified a low consequence let KOs to get an additional parliamentary mandate in this district.
District 18 – voters of the Left from Warsaw and the voting area in Sulejówek
District 18, housing district, is of average size, 12 Members are elected here, meaning that the electoral threshold for the first word of office is about 6.7 – 7.3%.
Left in 2019 won 29,235 votes here, 6.45%. She ran out of little than 1,000 votes to get her ticket. Of the districts forming this district, it obtained a score close to the national average in Siedlce, Ostrołęce and Minsk County.
Figure 3. Results of the left-wing vote in constituency No 18 in the 2019 parliamentary election, origin of PKW
This year, the Left will most likely be worse. Assuming a 5% vote in the territory and a 2019 vote (453,000), The left could number on 22.6 1000 votes. The mandate would deficiency 8.5 – 10,000 votes. These votes should come from left-wing voters from neighbouring constituency – territory no 19 – Warsaw and territory no 20 – districts around Warsaw.
In terms of votes, Warsaw's seats are the most costly in Poland – on average, 69.1 1000 votes were needed in 2019. The left received a consequence of 251,4,000 votes and won 3 tickets. The consequence was rather unlucky, due to the fact that about 2,000 votes were missing to get the 4th mandate. This means that more than 60 1000 votes cast on the Left in Warsaw over the result, which was needed to get the 3rd mandate, were wasted by the vote. I do not know what are left-wing electoral calculations for the consequence in Warsaw in 2023. There are 2 mandates, and a 3rd mandate is absolutely real.
To search out leftist voters from another districts, it is safer to concentrate on territory 20. This is the territory where 14 Members should be elected according to the population, and this year we will proceed to choose 12 Members. This means that in October it will most likely be a constituency, where the vote will be 1 of the lowest.
In 2019, on average, there were 49,9 1000 votes per ticket, and this year it will definitely be over 50,000. In 2019 the Left gained 13.1% of support in this district, for 2 months it could be a score of 10–13%. That's a very assured 1 and no chance of 2 tickets. If 8,5 – 10 000 inhabitants of this territory supporting the Left, take a certificate of voting rights on election day and vote in the territory of Siedle, Left gets 1 ticket in territory 20 and an extra ticket in territory 18.
Figure 4. Election results of the Left from 2019. Excess votes in the constituency (more than required to get a mandate), electoral districts bordering constituency No 18 — Siedlce
District 18 borders 8 another districts. The Left so has more opportunities to actively manage its voters between districts. In 2019, in territory No. 35, Olsztyn Left won 1 ticket, and over 20,000 votes were surplus and could be utilized in another districts. These mathematical calculations on the current polling data are work for the Left Electoral Staff. For me, without that knowledge, the best place to come from is territory 20.
Anna Siarkowska vs. Left — specified a duel only in “eighteen”
District 18 may have an interesting personnel dimension. In this district, there is increasing support for the Confederacy and this organization without active action The Left can win the last ‘receipt score’ in this district, that is to say, the twelfth (last) mandate given by the d’Hondt method in the district. This would mean 2 Confederate Members from the territory of Siedle. On the list of Confederations in second place will be the name Anna Siarkowska and she will have the best chance of getting that second mandate for the Confederation. The associate is the latest political transfer to the Confederate Parliamentary Club. alternatively of a twitter duel of Biejat – Gierty, for left-wing voters there will surely be a more interesting fight for a parliamentary mandate in the Siedle district, which candidate Left has a very good chance of winning. The fact that at the same time she will be deprived of her seat in the Sejm of her future word of office, Mrs Anna Siarkowska, may be an additional reason for voting in this district.
Summary
The Left must convince its voters nationwide that votes cast on this list will not be wasted. There is no request to vote for the strongest list of opposition, but the left will gotta vote in this election wisely. At least part of voters request to be actively managed where and how they should vote. There are 2 ways to increase the final consequence calculated in parliamentary mandates – a tactical alliance with KOs in elected electoral districts, where 8-9 Members are elected. This involves comparatively advanced electoral thresholds in the district, and additionally among these districts are those where the Left has natural lower support due to conservative views of the inhabitants.
The second method is to vote left-wing voters from constituency, where Left-wing is certain of its mandates, in districts where these votes are missing. The case of the Siedle district, where part of the Left voters from Districts 19 and 20 should vote seems obvious. There could be more places like this.
The cost for the Left to not list itself in 2 tiny constituencies is about 40,000 voters less. On a national scale, with a turnout at a level like in 2019, this translates into about 0.2% lower consequence and a somewhat smaller budget subsidy. The proposal of specified an alliance should come out as a proposal of the Left made by the Civic Coalition. KO specified a proposal would be hard to reject, due to the fact that it is simply a de facto implementation of Donald Tusk's postulate of a common list, only in a point edition.
In the 3 PiS districts described by me in 2019, he earned 75% of the tickets. The Confederacy has not won any mandate and this year will fight for the first MPs from these districts. It is impossible to foretell 100% to whom the Left could take tickets in these districts, but there are very good chances that specified an election triumph would be at the expense of the Law or the Confederation.
Would specified a decision be understood by the voters of the Left and would not the deficiency of a list of their own in the 2 constituency be regarded as a weakness? I'll answer that with a hypothetical example of a voter. Mr. Jan is 40, lives in Tarnów. always since he was 18, he's always voting for the Left. In 2005, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 his voice was wasted, Lefty did not win any mandate in this district. If Mr Jan understands that the candidate for the Left on the KO list is an almost certain MP of the Left from his side, he will surely be pleased. By voting sixth time for the Left, the first time in his life his electoral vote will matter. I think he'll be assured to vote for the Left candidate on the Civic Coalition list.
