Protests in Serbia – will they change?

• The next wave of protests in Serbia has continued for 2 months. On fresh Year's Night, thousands of people began to manifest in 3 of the country's most populous cities: Belgrade, fresh Sada and Nishu. At the largest convention in the capital, students from various capital universities organized a protest with the slogan: “There is no fresh year. You inactive owe us besides old.”
• Many participants held banners with red palm prints. It's a symbol of anti-government protests that attendees show the authorities that these have blood on their hands.

• The demonstrators entered in 2025 symbolically: a 15-minute silence between 11:52 and 00:07. At the same time, respective 100 meters away, the official, joyful fresh Year celebrations, including concerts and fireworks show, continued.

• What caused the protests, and what is their future? Do, as the manifestans say, reflect a broad discontent with president Aleksandar Vučic's leadership?

Genesis and the course of protests

The immediate origin of the speeches was an accident in the city of Nowy Sad, which occurred on 1 November 2024 at a late renovated railway station. As a consequence of collapse of the roof over the main entrance (the consequence of defective construction and overload of the structure) 14 people aged 6 to 74 were killed. 15 victims died in the infirmary a fewer weeks later.

Death was blamed on ongoing corruption and insufficient supervision of construction projects. The protests have begun. The authorities in Belgrade tried to react. As a consequence of the tragedy, 13 people were charged, including Transport Minister Goran Vesici, who resigned from his post a fewer days after the event. president Vučić announced even readiness to hold a referendum on his dismissal.

In the face of social pressure, the government has besides made public documentation related to the controversial reconstruction of the railway station. It was part of a broader agreement with Chinese companies, which includes a comprehensive modernization of Serbian railways. That's what the D.A. did.

However, the protestors claimed that this was not enough. They argued, among another things, that the indictment did not include allegations of possible corruption arrangements related to the renovation of the station. The atmosphere is heated by the fact that Miloš Vučević, the current Prime Minister and formal leader of the ruling state of the Serbian Progressive organization (ser. Srpska predicament).

It's been 2 months since the tragedy, and the demonstrations continue. As M. Szpala from the Center for east Studies notes, the violent reaction of parts of Serbian society to the construction disaster in Nowy Sada seems to be due to the fact that it was widely considered to be embodiment Incompetence, nepotism and corruption of authorities.

According to the protest participants, “secret agreements are concluded, people close to power are richer and no 1 cares about the nation.” Road blocking and state institutions, including public tv and prosecutors, are taking place. The biggest – in terms of attendance – protest took place before Catholic Christmas. According to the government, nearly 30,000 people gathered in Belgrade on 22 December evening. Sources from the demonstration camp informed about about about 100,000 people participating in the rally in the capital square of Slavija. This was most likely the most many demonstration in Serbia in the 21st century.

At 1 point, students and advanced school students became the driving force behind the protests. Blockages of educational institutions began initially at the Faculty of Dramatic Arts of the University of Belgrade after service interventions during a silent tribute to the victims of the disaster on 22 November. The following were raised requests:

– publication of complete documentation of the reconstruction of the railway station in Nowy Sada,

– waiving charges against arrested and detained in connection with protests,

– placing criminal charges against perpetrators of assault on students and professors and pursuing them,

– increase the backing of state universities by 20%.

Students and students received support from various backgrounds: professors, farmers, actors, as well as any fans. It's mostly about fans tormented by the authorities of the football club Partizan Belgrade, who late during the Serbian League game long They were chanting. statements against president Vučici. Teachers from 4 educational trade unions conducted a strike to support the student protesters.

In consequence to the nature of the protests, the government extended (i.e. he started a week earlier) winter school holidays. authoritative reason? "Occasions affecting the quality and preservation of the teaching process, as well as the interests and right of students to education". The students will not be returning to school until January 20.

Apart from the situation in education, the authorities respond to the protests (as it seems) rather calmly. Serbian president Alexandar Vučić reiterates that all student demands have been met and there is no reason for further concessions, as manifestations are a political issue.

The government accepts the communicative that demonstrators are a tool in the hands of abroad services. Their goal is to overthrow the democratic cabinet. W post scriptum Vučić sent a fresh year's message message to Zagreb, Sarajevo and Pristina, more specifically to the “power centres” in these cities: “Happy fresh Year and vain hopes, the government in Serbia will not change.”

The president besides accused his opponents of manipulating students and striving to destabilise the situation in the country to take power by force. By the way, the power is working in a proven way to alleviate public discontent: it promises various grants to young people and besides directs citizens' attention to another issues specified as the Kosovo issue – early in the year Vučić enigmatically stated"expectedly, 2 large countries, larger than Serbia, will retreat their appreciation for Kosovo in the close future".

Future of protests: an interior perspective

So what is the future of the protests? Given the period of power of Vučicia in Serbia, the starting point for this analysis is pessimistic. In the last decade, at least 9 large waves of protests (including the current one) against the ruling can be identified. no brought major or long - word changes.

A fresh example can be cited here. A year ago, regular social manifestations took place in Belgrade in consequence to many irregularities related to the parliamentary and self-government elections in Belgrade. After the first strength of protests (blocks of roads, storms at the capital city hall, hunger strike of opposition leaders) over the course of the period the protests expired.

This time the demonstrators want to item the citizenship and apoliticalness of protests. Therefore, there has been no clear leader among them, which is simply a targeted action and is intended to emphasise the viability of the initiative. This is an crucial component due to the fact that the engagement of opposition parties in the demonstration organization has already led to the collapse of the "Jedan from pet million" movement at the end of last decade. It was caused by the beating of 1 of the politicians reluctant to the government. Initially, he was formally devoid of political affiliation, organizing the largest social protests since Slobodan Milošević's regulation and expressing civilian opposition to the power system.

With this arrangement, the state device must effort harder to show the protesters as "opposition and abroad agents". The situation is facilitated by the fact that the Serbian media scenery is mostly subordinate to the government. 1 of the “victims” of specified policy became manager Stevan Filipović, presented as ‘aggressive’ and ‘paid by Croatian services’. extremist media, more rusophilous than the governing environment, Treatment Even protesters as “terrorists” associated with Ukraine and Kosovo.

The threat to Vučic, and at the same time the chance for the success of protests, is the life-based approach of society. These include social problems (e.g. shootings in 2023 erstwhile respective people lost their lives) or an increase in the cost of living. That is besides why according to global Investigations carried out by Gallup International, Serbia is among the countries most pessimistic towards 2025 – 3rd in this respect. 44 percent of pessimists and 23 percent of optimists (25 percent anticipate the situation to stay unchanged) were recorded in the country.

On the another hand, 1 issue should be recalled erstwhile considering the chance of demonstrators. About 6.5 million people live in Serbia. any 1.7 million live in the Belgrade metropolis. In 2024, at least 10 000 participants participated in only 4 civil-political assemblies. 3.8 million votes were cast in the December 2023 parliamentary elections. For the Serbian Progressive organization voted 37.5 percent (354.4,000 votes) in the capital and 34.4 percent (325.1,000 votes) in the main list of united opposition. In the second largest city, these proportions were as follows: 39.1% – 34 percent. Meanwhile, in the country, the ratio was 48.1% to 24.3% (for example, in the constituency of confederate and east Serbia 53 percent to 18.3%).

Electoral geography must not be forgotten erstwhile examining whether protests reflect the actual widespread discontent of society. Doubtless there are more opposition supporters in the largest cities where it is easier to mobilise a large number of people than in agrarian and tiny cities far from the metropolis. However, advanced support for Vučic is maintained nationally.

This is due to the fact that the organization makes itself dependent on a crucial group of people working in the public sector. It is worth noting that the President's group includes as many as 800,000 people – in terms of number of members it is the most many political organization in Europe! It is besides fair to admit that many people are affirmative about the improvement of the Serbian economy and the number of fresh investments. They appreciate the president's global dexterity, which skillfully balances on 3 pillars of abroad policy (West, Russia, China). Many besides look favorably at symbolic gestures that stimulate an highly lively national pride among the Serbs, specified as fresh ones wrapping become the president with the state flag erstwhile voting in the UN on establishing a day of remembrance of the genocide in Srebrenica.

It is not surprising, therefore, that protesters do not want to identify with unpopular politicians. However, the above results show that support for power, at least for now, does not decrease significantly. It is so hard to presume that there is simply a general consensus in society about the perception of power.

At this point, protests after the tragedy in Nowy Sada are primarily of student character. However, the rulers fear that they will take a wider civic form. Vučić tries to dispel this fear, especially among his supporters. It radicalizes vocabulary and shows that nothing peculiar is happening and that everything is under control.

Although the Serbian president may be delicate to protests of this peculiar social group. The fresh Year's manifestation was conducted like a rally organized at the 1996 student convention summit. The young then rebelled against the authoritarian tendencies of Slobodan Milošević's power and irregularities during the local elections. This wave of protests was not successful, but the analysis of the mistakes made at the time led to the creation and organisation of the political movement Otpor (Pol. Resistance). This yet led to the overthrow of Milošević as a consequence of the bulldozer revolution (cheese. Buldožer revolucija) 5 October 2000

The analogy undoubtedly raises Vučic’s concerns. Especially since he was a victim of student protests at the time – from 1998 to 2000 he was Minister of Information in the government under the actual leadership of Milošević. After years He apologized. for the actions he took in that position. That is why he must act decisively now. An inadequate consequence may consequence in the creation of fresh political or organisational platforms based on protests, which will search to change power.

Future of protests: an global perspective

When considering the chances of implementing wider changes in the highest levels of power, the reception of protests in the eyes of the most crucial players on the global chess board should be taken into account. The success of this movement Otpor had its origin, among others, in the financial and political support of the Western world, First of all, the United States. At the end of the 1990s, millions of dollars contributed to the Serbian opposition's budget, and the main contributor was the National Endowment for Democracy (a private nonprofit foundation, mostly funded by the US government). For the then American Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, removing Slobodan Milošević from public life was a “personal matter” and “an highly crucial priority”.

What about the global reality of AD 2025? Starting with the analysis from the east, it can surely be assumed that China has no interests in the overthrow of Vučic. Relations with Beijing are given precedence by power in Belgrade. The situation of May last year can be recalled here. Serbian public tv then interrupted – contrary to the rules of the festival – the semi-final of the Eurovision Song competition at the time of the performance of the Polish typical to show the live arrival of Xi Jingping to Belgrade airport.

China is treated by Serbia as the 3rd pillar of abroad policy (beside the West and Russia). The president of the PRC emphasises"Serbia is China's most crucial trading partner in Central and east Europe". In December, it was announced that it was “Power China” build The first metro line in Belgrade, and in the close past, the company from your centre constructed, among others, a railway bus on the Nowy Sad-Belgrad section (and was liable for the ferrious renovation of the station in the erstwhile city). full Beijing invests in Serbia today, as much as the full European Union. China treats Serbia as a hub for economical expansion in the region and undoubtedly does not want political change in the Central Balkan country.

Good relations with Vučici are besides valued by the Moscow Kremlin. Russia has consistently presented itself to Serbian society for years as a “real” alternate to the West. The Belgrade authorities do not full reject this communicative and, despite the pressures of the European Union, do not impose sanctions on Moscow. all day, there are respective flights operated by Air Serbia from Belgrade port to Moscow and Saint Petersburg and back, in the face of sanctions imposed by another countries on the Old Continent. In Serbia, about 100,000 Russians found their place of residence. Gazprom holds the majority of its shares in the largest oil company in the country – Naftna Industria Srbić. Thus, in Vučić theory, it can be treated by Vladimir Putin and the company as an ally.

On the another hand, the Serbian president besides shows signs of distance from Russia. This was the case in October erstwhile he chose to meet Donald Tuski and Greek Prime Minister Kiriakos Mitsotakis alternatively of arriving at the BRICS summit in Kazan. In fresh years Serbia has been looking for alternate trade directions, resulting in decrease trade with the largest Slavic state. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the introduction of sanctions against Moscow by many countries, import volumes of Russian military products have fallen significantly. Relationships with Russia seem to be little crucial to Serbia than those with the West and China. erstwhile considering this subject holistically, there should be no complete exclusion of possible attempts to blend Moscow into Serbian politics and attempts to remove Vučic. However, this can only be the case if this would lead to a replacement of it with a more rustic and anti-Western policy. There are no shortages of specified in Serbia. For example, they believe that the Serbian president betrayed Kosovo. In support of ongoing protests, with anti-corruption and anti-authoritarian slogans on the banners, Russia has no interest.

What about the 3rd global actor, the wider Western world, namely the United States and the European Union? The reaction of these 2 actors is akin to that of China and Russia – ongoing protests are not commented on by Washington and Brussels.

Recently, the loudest act of any kind of protest against the power of Vučic (not straight linked to the manifestations) was statement Head of Dutch diplomacy, Caspara Veldkampa. In mid-December, he stated that "The Netherlands will block Serbia's next step towards EU membership and will encourage another countries to do so". The reason? "No adequate advancement in the regulation of law" and "not adequate advancement in relations between Belgrade and Pristina, i.e. no alignment of its abroad policy with EU abroad policy". This is not the first time Amsterdam has presented the strongest position against Belgrade throughout the Community. This was, for example, in 2008, erstwhile the Netherlands did not agree to unblock the association agreement with Serbia. The change of decision depended on the capture of Ratko Mladić.

However, attention should be paid to an crucial issue. At demonstrations in Belgrade or fresh Sad – compared to e.g. rally in Tbilisi – it is hard to find EU flags. Contrary to the intuitive associations that may arise after reading information in mainstream media specified as "protest against pro-Russian autocracy", this does not automatically mean that this is so under the slogan "we want to enter the EU".

The posters present at the demonstrations mainly contain anti-corruption content relating to the deficiency of transparency in Serbian public life. Of course, it can be assumed that a large part (or even a very large part) of the Euro-enthusiasts, although this aspect is inactive on the agenda. The European Union so does not feel obliged to support crowds that do not meet under the blue flag with yellow stars, as is the case in Georgia, for example.

In addition, Serbia is simply a place on the planet map, where the EU has policies based not on idealism but on global reality. On 19 July 2024, a Memorandum of knowing between the EU and Serbia on a strategical Partnership for Sustainable Resources, Battery Chains and electrical Vehicles was signed in Belgrade. The main presumption is the beginning in western Serbia by the Australian-British mining consortium Rio Tinto of 1 of the largest lithium mines – a key natural material for the production of batteries for electrical cars – in Europe.

The EU would thus gain its own origin of this mineral, which would play a key function in the Community economy. However, the task besides has a dark side. Environmental activists They're afraid The task will contaminate the land and water in the western part of the Serbian Jadar region, where the deposits are located. In August 2024 respective tens of thousands of people manifested (like 3 years earlier, erstwhile the first plans to open the mine appeared) against the extraction of the mineral in the selected location. However, the controversial Rio Tinto consortium task is invariably officially supported by Brussels, despite protests by environmentalists and civilian organizations.

Furthermore, the ruling countries in Serbia enjoy the support of the majority of Western states, as they fear destabilising the situation in the country after the eventual overthrow of Alexandar Vučic (including the eventual takeover of power by openly pro-Russian communities). An example of political realism showing support for the Serbian leader to drag him to the West side and distance him from Moscow was Donald Tusk's visit to Belgrade in October 2024. The Polish Prime Minister then warmly greeted Vučici, started His speech in Serbian did not criticise the rulers in any way and stated that "the enlargement of the EU must take Serbia into account".

On the another hand, the leaders of Serbian opposition social movements do not show large love for Brussels. For example Nebojša Petković, 1 of the leaders of protests against the extraction of lithium, in statements for Politico he described Serbia as “a colony of all large powers” and baptized the European Union as “hypocritical”. What does Serbian society think? According to December surveys 47% of Serbia's citizens would vote for accession to the Community and 29% would be against. At the same time, only 30% are affirmative for the EU (41% negative), which shows a pragmatic approach to European integration. As many as 44% of those asked said Serbia would never join the European Union.

In conclusion, the European Union does not want to hazard losing its influence in Serbia and the political drift of the authorities in Belgrade towards Moscow and Beijing, in a situation of questionable prospects for the success of protests, as well as uncertain further developments, in the case of Brussels not necessarily doomed to success. It seems more beneficial to keep the current state and to observe what the future will bring. This is so much safer that most countries in the region are members of the EU and NATO.

Neither does the United States have an interest in real support for protesters. The symbolic in this respect was presence U.S. Ambassador to Serbia Christopher Hill (2000-2004 Ambassador to Poland) alongside Alexandar Vučic at the beginning of a fresh section of the road just on the day of the biggest protest in Belgrade on 22 December. Donald Trump's starting presidency is besides most likely good information for Vučic. It is assumed that the new-old American leader will pay far little attention to respect for human rights and democracy than the politician cabinet.

The Serbian president himself has a good feeling about the fresh interview statedthat president Trump will “change many things” and what he has heard from the fresh American administration raises “hope”. Serbia's subject – compared to the 1990s and protests against the power of Milošević – is not present in the American public debate. There is so no real anticipation in American society and the lobbying groups there to support the pro-democratic Serbian opposition.

Summary

It seems that the current wave of protests will not go into past as a breakthrough. It is improbable to lead straight to major changes at the highest levels of power. It is besides not expected that accelerated elections will be drawn up. Already in June 2024 leaders of the Serbian Progressive organization They promisedthat they will not agree to early parliamentary elections and shorten the word of office of the Chamber, so the next election will take place in 2027.

According to analyst Dragomir Anđelkovic, this decision has a solid basis. Namely, this year, the construction of a gigantic construction task called Belgrade on the water (cheese). Beograd on vodi), and above all, there will be a planet Expo exhibition to visit 3 million people and to make Belgrade a three-month "center of the worldIt’s okay. ” The importance of the event for Serbia and the scale of promotion should be demonstrated by the fact that billboards informing about EXPO 2027 are already in the centre of Sarajevo.

At the end of December, in the face of this large protest in Belgrade, Vučić statedthat “nobody will be given power without elections” while “he lives”. He informed that until they killed him, his opponents would not come to power, “unless in elections.” He announced besides unexpectedly that "elections are not excluded". It seems, however, that it was just a bluff and a bogeyman for a divided and dismembered opposition – which is completely unprepared for it. For all these reasons, the president himself and his political environment are not their supporters. These options can so be considered practically excluded.

What, then, can the manifesting 1 do? 2 potentials are crystallized. scenarios: General strike and transitional government. However, both are highly unlikely. The first option is virtually out of the question, as it is almost impossible to accomplish a unified position in the case of divided and phantom trade unions. As for the second solution, opposition parties considered that the transitional government, which would prepare "free and fair elections", could be a way out of the political and social crisis. However, this option has been firmly Rejected by the president of Serbia.

Authorities countthat actions specified as tactical concessions or appropriate police approach to convention participants will lead to their spontaneous extinction (as in erstwhile protests). Analyzing the first occurrences in the fresh year, you can already announcement decrease interest in protests. This fact delights the President, who statedthat they "fall down" "thanks to their mistakes, but thus increase their nervousness, aggression and hysteria".

In fresh months there have been many cases that have been opposed by any citizens: louder than plans to build a lithium mine, but besides smaller, outraged groups of people, like Preparation to demolish a popular bridge in the center of Belgrade. In response, the rulers must open further fronts that are hard to control. Another hot place can mobilise an even larger number of protesters – peculiarly given the discontent with the surviving conditions of a large part of Serbia.

Nor can it be excluded that, on a domino basis, the situation in another country of the region, for example Montenegro, which is so geographically and culturally close to Serbia. Since the beginning of January there has been mass protests in connection with the shooting in Cetinje, in which 12 people died. Passwords and forms of manifestation match those of Belgrade or fresh Sad. And 1 of their driving forces is students.