Forecast for the second circular of elections – comment by Schuman Foundation expert

We're after the first circular of elections, we know the final consequence of each candidate. On this basis, I attempted to calculate the likely scenarios in the second round. At the outset, I wanted to stress that the assumptions adopted for the purposes of the accounts do not come straight from the conducted opinions and polls. The possible division of votes obtained by individual candidates is simply a subjective forecast, created on the basis of individual assessments of their views and possible behaviour of voters. Under no circumstances can this be considered a technological analysis.

On the basis of the calculations carried out, it can be concluded that Rafał Trzaskowski has a chance of obtaining 9,106,427 votes from those who participated in the first circular and Karol Nawrocki at 8,837.190. To add to that the votes of those who did not participate in the first round, but will go on the second round. specified absence only in I circular can consequence from various reasons, e.g. random reasons. There will besides be voters in this group who have general aversion to all candidates, but in the second circular they will mobilize to yet vote for “smaller evil”. However, I do not consider forecasting how many specified people can be and what their preferences are.

The most crucial assumptions adopted for the calculation:

1. All voters of the 2 main candidates will besides vote for them in the second round. Of course, this will not happen 100%, but let us presume that the margin of difference will be minimal and will be spread equally between the 2 of you.
2. Most of the voters of Sławomir Mentzen (about 60%) will support Karol Nawrocki, about one-quarter will resign from the election, and all seven-eighth will vote for Rafał Trzaskowski.
3. Around 2/3 of Braun's voters will support Karol Nawrocki, the others will stay in their homes.
4. Almost all voters of Szymon Holown and Magdalena Biejat will support Rafał Trzaskowski.
5. The clear majority (though not all) of voters Adrian Zandberg will support Rafał Trzaskowski.
6. As for another candidates and candidates, those who obtained about 1% of the vote or less, it is very hard to make a credible forecast. The votes were so divided very intuitively, based on the views of the candidates.

A table containing full calculations with sub-votes can be found at the bottom of the article.

What's the conclusion? The key, in my opinion, will be the following:

First:

• Will Rafał Trzaskowski be able to convince even a twelve percent of Mentzen voters to vote for him, and e.g. 1 in 5 stayed home? Due to the advanced figures, this will have a very crucial impact on the result of the elections. The situation of 5 years ago, erstwhile rather a number of Confederate voters voted for Trzaskovsky, seems unrepeatable. They voted for the change that Trzaskowski was then, but now it is Nawrocki. However, if Nawrocki takes over the vast majority of Mentzen's votes, his presidency seems to be doomed.
• How many people who have not voted in the first circular will go on the second circular and what ‘minor evil’ will they choose? What “reservations” of these non-voters do both have and which will better mobilise them?

Next:

• How many of Braun's voters will mobilize Nawrocks and how many will stay at home? due to the fact that it's hard to imagine them backing Trzaskovsky.
• How many voters will Zandberg stay home? due to the fact that alternatively a tiny part of them will yet vote for Nawrocki.

It seems that, above all, the answer to these questions depends on the final result of the second round.

Rafał Dymek

Schuman Foundation expert

Table with full calculations of subjective breakdown of votes from I turn

Photo: ANTONI BYSZEWSKI / PhotoNews / Forum