Professor, are you amazed by this election? Difference between Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki little than statistical mistake (30.8% to 29.1%)
Prof. Marek Migalski: I think we can wake up in the morning with the first two. I wouldn't be amazed if I did.
The difference between Trzaskowski and Nawrock was very small. possibly she'll be gone at all and we'll talk about a tie. I predicted it would be 4 percent points.
Is that a bad score for Trzaskowski? He is dealing with a guest from nowhere, burdened with, among others, "Mr. George". And he has a tiny advantage.
Everyone thought Trzaskowski was an added value to the Civic Coalition,
And it turns out he only got what KO has.
Sikorski would play more?
I wrote from the beginning that Sikorski would be a better choice. Trzaskowski is besides left-left-liberal.
Over 20% of Poles' support for Mentzen and Braun. The wind's blowing right?
The second surprise of these elections is surely the consequence of Grzegorz Braun. If it is confirmed next day morning that there is simply a tie between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki, and Mentzen and Braun have more than 20 percent, adding Stanowski, Jakubiak and – I apologize for the wording – plankton...
We've got a win for Charles Nawrocki?
That's right. Most of Braun and Mentzen voters in the second circular will vote for Nawrocki.
So far, neither Braun nor Mentzen have officially supported anyone.
They don't gotta do this, it's not in their interest. It's in their best interest that the PiS is not a hegemon. On the another hand, the organization calculations for the Confederacy and for the Kobra party, which is to be created thanks to Braun and Korwin. And what else are voters' decisions, and they go to elections no substance what the leaders say?
For years I have been saying that in the second circular of the presidential election there is always more attendance. People go to vote in second circular due to the fact that they just like this election. They're simple, readable. The vast majority of over 20% of voters will vote for Nawrocki. On the another side we have only Biejat and Holovnia.
With very mediocre support.
Yeah, due to the fact that it's little than 10 percent. A group of voters who will definitely support Trzaskowski cannot be counted as voters by Adrian Zandberg.
Zandberg proved to be rather strong, 5.2 percent support.
Yeah, Adrian Zandberg turned out to be very strong. Turns out he had a very good thought of moving in this election. His individual charisma caused the organization to beat the party's candidate completely couched much stronger: structurally, organizationally, financially.
These elections show us a strong right and a weak left?
By summing up the results of left-wing candidates and adding Joanna Senyszyn, we have a score of more than 10%. This is more than the left got in 2023.
But compared to the right - weak. Mentzen himself has over 15 percent.
Mentzen doubled the Confederate score 2 years ago.
And Braun, who amazed everyone.
I was amazed by the consequence of Grzegorz Braun, I thought he would have a 2-3 percent support. But I wasn't amazed he made a good campaign. Apart from abominations, he referred to a much larger group than his possible electorate, to the group: anti-Semites, anti-Ukrainian voters, opponents of the European Union.
Using social media skillfully, involving me, Mrs.
And everyone else who commented on it. I'm sorry to be so personal.
But we were all in this game.
Yes, we played in his game: burning flags, citizen detention, entering hospitals. We made it public. And that was precisely what Grzegorz Braun wanted.
Do you remember to whom Braun addressed the question in the debate "Super Express": "Don't you think Jews in Poland have besides much power?".
I don't remember.
To Mentzen. These most tough anti-semites, nationalists, so voted for Grzegorz Braun.
And it's the biggest support the right, Mentzen, had in the 18-29 age group.
In general, this group of voters was the most mobilized.
Two weeks ago, I wrote in a column that there is no point in making a promotion run aimed at young people due to the fact that they will go to elections. But they'll vote for Mentzen.
Turnout – very good. Over 66%.
It seems to have been the biggest voter turnout – in terms of the first circular – since 1989. It was predicted that attendance would be 62-63 percent, and there was over 66%. You can see that society is active and from election elections attendance is either expanding or maintaining a akin level. It seemed to me that there was no emotion, but yet they are besides Poles – despite bad weather – want to participate in these files.
Now we have a two-week, very violent election campaign?
I think all the moves will be allowed. We'll most likely find out by Wednesday–Thursday what the staff has prepared. They'll set off the bombs. I'm certain they do. We've got news coming up.
Tusk on X has already written, "The game is about to start."
Duopol defended himself, so those who put PO or PiS to the grave gotta wait a small longer. Both sides of this dispute, extended by appetizers, consider as Tusk that he began to fear for everything.
Who will be president of Poland?
I'd alternatively answer that question next day morning. If we wake up next day morning
With Nawrock in the lead, it's almost certain he'll win the election. If that doesn't happen
And there's going to be a "remis" on a akin level as now, it's inactive a better chance for Nawrocks. On the another hand, erstwhile Nawrocki comes first, it is almost certain that he will win. If it's on second, it's all in the game.
For today, however, Karol Nawrocki is in a better position. due to the fact that most of the voters whose candidates dropped out in the first circular are opposition voters. This is 10% of voters: Holownia, Biejat and Senyszyn. And the rest: Mentzen, Braun and Zandberg – are opposition voters.
And Zandberg won't support Trzaskowski?
No, Zandberg won't. He plays at the end of the duopol, for a fresh hand. He would besides be unbelievable to his own constituents. due to the fact that he said that both PO and PiS disgust him. He won't burn Trzaskovsky, but I think most of his constituents will. But it won't be a large part.
