Prof. Dudek: Nawrocki's presidency could end in national tragedy

On 6 August, Karol Nawrocki was sworn in as president of the Republic. Although his choice was not a political surprise, he caused strong reactions in academic and opinion-making environments. Prof. Antoni Dudek, a political scientist and historian from the UKSW, does not hide concern. In an interview with “Rzeczpospolita” he says that if his top concerns are met, Poland will face a systemic crisis. There are words about a possible “national tragedy”. And these are not terms utilized for growth.

Antoni Dudek. Photo: screen shot, youtube @dudekohistory

IPN as a model of power style

Dudek does not measure the presidency by the prism of the declaration, but on the basis of earlier Nawrocki actions. As the head of the Institute of National Memory, he thought that he would lead to deep staff changes that weakened the institution. The prof. recalls that as many as a 3rd of the employees left the IPN headquarters. It considers this policy to be an example of a governance kind that sets an ideological goal beyond organization continuity.

It is the IPN that becomes the key to knowing possible threats in its analysis. If a akin way of directing is transferred to the Presidential Palace, it may be possible, as it believes, to systematically deepen existing tensions between the main centres of power.

Political boxing without rules

The relation between the fresh president and Donald Tusk's government does not appear to be a cooperation. According to Dudek, conflict is only a substance of time. Nawrocki himself suggested the anticipation of earlier elections before his swearing in. Signals about confrontational attitudes appeared in his campaigns and first statements.

Politologist compares the upcoming dynamics to boxing, in which whoever hits the first punch does not necessarily win – on the contrary, it can endure image losses. But he besides notes that present the president has an advantage resulting from the effect of fresh developments. “Nawrocks have 2 hands ready to fight, and Tusk has only 1 – and left –” comments figuratively on Dudek.

Army as a frontline?

Among many objections, 1 seems peculiarly serious: possible attempts to take real control of the army. According to the Constitution, the president is its superior, but in practice it is the government, through the Minister of Defence, that makes operational decisions.

"What I fear is an effort to make nominal sovereignty real" – says Prof. Dudek. This is not a abrupt change in the system, but a gradual shift in the impact limits. specified a decision could make tensions among military personnel and undermine the army's apolitical principle. And what he suggests would be a fresh and dangerous phenomenon.

Echo of the May bombing

Dudek reaches for historical analogy, but carefully. He recalls the 1926 May bombing not to scare the replay, but to remind you that a demonstration of force can turn into chaos. Piłsudski – recalls – He decided to organize a demonstration of the army that had turned into a fight. There were victims in Warsaw.

“I hope we have grown out of something like this” – he says. Yet he warns that a sharp political conflict can spill beyond parliamentary borders and paralyze the institutions of the state. Even without dramatic images. It is adequate that the tension will decision to structures that have been predictable so far.

President as patron of the fresh right

Dudek is not limited to a forecast of a conflict with the government. It besides points to the president's second possible direction – building a political backdrop on the right side of the stage. PiS' relation with the Confederacy is tense, and Nawrocki, according to the professor, may effort to set himself up as a mediator and patron of the future alliance.

This is not a charge of unconstitutionality, but a signal that the Presidential Palace may become a fresh centre of coordination of opposition to the government. If this happens, the organization tension will besides be strategical – political but long-term.

Hope and Restriction

Despite acute diagnosis, prof. Dudek does not present his opinion as a judgment. It makes it clear that he would like to be wrong. He points out that the final form of Karol Nawrocki's presidency will depend on whether the instinct of competition or work for the state will prevail.

In this presidency – says – It's little about ideas and more about style. If it is simply a confrontational style, institutions may not stand for it. If compromise – there is inactive a chance that the fresh arrangement of power will not deepen any more clear divisions.

Source: Republic — rp.pl,