- Trzaskowski could number on the support of his voters from the 1st circular and any supporters of Zandberg, Hołownia, as well as any of Mentzen's voters
- Nawrocks and Mentzens would gain mostly the votes of their voters from the 1st circular and support another candidates and indecisive
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In a study, conducted before the presidential debates, the poller asked Poles about voting in a hypothetical second circular of elections. The survey examined 2 variants — the entry into the 2nd circular of Trzaskowski and Nawrocki and the 2nd circular — if the second circular were a candidate of KO and a candidate of Confederation Sławomir Mentzen.
According to the study, If the 2nd circular of elections were held now and it competed with Trzaskowski and Nawrocki, the better consequence would be achieved by the candidate KO, for whom 52% of the respondents would like to vote. In turn, the candidate supported by the Law and Justice could number on 44-percent support. 4 percent of respondents declared themselves "undecided".
That's how candidates would vote in the second round.
In the second round, Trzaskowski could number on almost 100% support of his voters from the First circular of elections (99 percent), it would besides be voted by 71 percent of the Party's candidates together by Adrian Zandberg of 1st round, 68% of the 3rd Way candidate Simon Holowna of 1st circular and 13 percent of the Sławomir Mentzen of 1st circular of elections.
Nawrocks in turn could number in the second circular in support of 96 percent of their voters from the 1st round, as well as 60 percent of the declared voters of Mentzen, 11 percent of Zandberg's voters and 8 percent — Holownia.
"Electors of the remaining candidates from the 1st circular of elections, who have already received small support from their supporters in the study, In the second circular of elections, the electorate of Karol Nawrocki (37 percent of the statements of support in this group of respondents) could be given a small more power than Rafał Trzaskowski (29%).. A comparatively large part of this group of voters from I tour (30%), having a choice between the 2 contenders, would not want to vote for either of them and would quit participation in the 2nd circular of elections," CBOS said.
The second surveyed option assumes Entry to the 2nd circular of the presidential election of Rafał Trzaskowski and Sławomir Mentzen. In this case, 51% of respondents would vote for an KO candidate and 47% for a Confederate candidate, 3 percent of respondents who would then vote for said, "It's hard to say." CBOS noted that in this case ‘interests do not add up to 100 due to rounding’.
Also in the event of a clash in the 2nd circular of Trzaskowski with Mentzen, almost all of his voters would vote for candidate KO — 99 percent. — from I tour, as well as: the vast majority of voters voting earlier on Adrian Zandberg (80%) and Simon Holovnia (74%). "It would look more like his listing among supporters of the remaining, who present enjoy small support from the 1st circular of voting candidates (35 percent statements of support in this group). KO candidate could besides support about one-fifth of the presently undecided voters (22%), as well as the declaring absence in the 1st circular of the presidential election (19%)," said CBOS.
In turn Mentzen, if he entered the second circular with Trzaskowski, could number primarily on the votes of his voters from the 1st circular (95 percent), as well as the voices of Nawrocki supporters (77 percent). ‘There are many indications that he could rise somewhat more votes than his rival with the KO among the remaining voters, presently enjoying small support, candidates from the I circular of voting (45 percent support in this group of declared voters), as well as a small more among the indecisive voters (29 percent),” indicated the poller.
The survey was carried out by means of computer assisted telephone interviews (CATI – 87.5 percent) and net interviews (CAWI – 12.5 percent) from 7 to 9 April 2025 on a example of Polish adults (N=1000).
