Small difference, advanced turnout and 2 visions of Poland on the collision course – this is how the first circular of the 2025 presidential election ends. Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki will face a decisive match on 1 June.
Presidential Palace Warsaw. photograph by Dariusz Frach, thefad.pl
The election evening brought confirmation of what analysts had announced for weeks: the clash of 2 camps – liberal-central and conservative-national – is inevitable. The exit poll survey conducted by Ipsos for TVN24, Polsat News and TVP Info shows that Rafał Trzaskowski won 30.8 percent of the vote. Right behind him, with a score of 29.1 percent, was Karol Nawrocki. The difference only 1.7 percent points means that the first circular could have been determined by the margin of statistical error. The second circular will be a political referendum on the future of the country.
Pass to second round
Trzaskowski, repeated the 2020 score and found himself in the final again. – "I am very glad that I won I tour, but quite a few work ahead. You request determination, your voices, convincing everyone” – he spoke on election night in Sandomierz.
On the Law and Justice side, Karol Nawrocki – although he was not a widely recognized figure at the beginning of the campaign, in the first circular he gathered support at the level of 29.1 percent and present he grows up to the main rival of the Liberal camp.
Mentzen in 3rd place, left divided
The 3rd position came to Sławomir Mentzen, a Confederate candidate who gained 15.4 percent. This is simply a crucial consequence – it confirms the strong presence of anti-system moods, especially among younger voters. Mentzen, distanced from both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki, can play a key function in the redistribution of support in the next 2 weeks.
The next places show the fragmentation of the left. Grzegorz Braun, known for his controversial statements and extremist transmission, scored 6.2 percent. Adrian Zandberg (5.2%) and Magdalena Biejat (4.1%) were incapable to build a common front, which most likely cost them their place in the top half of the stake. Simon Holovnia finished the race with a score of 4.8 percent. Compared to the 2020 election, it is simply a dramatic decline and confirmation of the weakening position of Poland 2050.
Holovnia supports Trzaskovsky
Following the announcement of the exit poll results, Szymon Hołownia expressed his support for Rafał Trzaskowski in the second circular of the presidential election. – “The reefer must be wished good luck, he must be supported. I will encourage everyone who trusted me to trust Rafał in the second round.” said Holovnia during the election evening. He besides added that the current results are not in line with his expectations and looks at them with large concern, especially in the context of advanced support for candidates preaching hatred and aggression.
Voice of the people, voice of protest
Further places were Joanna Senyszyn and Krzysztof Stanowski (by 1.3%), Marek Jakubiak (0.8%), economist Artur Bartoszewicz (0.5%), youtuber Maciej Maciak (0.4%) and Marek Woch (0.1%). Although these candidates have not played a key function in this round, their presence reflects the pluralism and frustration of any voters.
A full of 13 candidates were elected. Exit poll indicates evidence attendance – 66.8 percent. This is the highest consequence in the past of the presidential elections in Poland after 1989. This means not only the strong engagement of citizens, but besides the increasing polarisation of society.
Two Polish, 1 question
Both Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki now have 2 weeks to convince undecided Poles and electorates of another candidates. Not only debates, but rhetoric, will be crucial – whether it goes towards mobilization of its own or attempts at reconciliation.
The second circular – scheduled for 1 June – will not only be the clash of 2 politicians. This is the minute erstwhile Poles will answer the question which way their democracy should be heading.
Results of exit poll studies conducted by Ipsos for TVN24, Polsat News and TVP Info:
Rafał Trzaskowski – 30.8%
Karol Nawrocki – 29.1%
Sławomir Mentzen – 15.4%
Grzegorz Braun – 6.2%
Adrian Zandberg – 5.2%
Simon Holovnia – 4.8%
Magdalena Biejat – 4.1%
Joanna Senyszyn – 1.3%
Krzysztof Stanowski – 1.3%
Marek Jakubiak – 0.8%
Artur Bartoszewicz – 0.5%
Maciej Maciak – 0.4%
Marek Woch – 0.1%
What's next? Late poll and PKW data
Let us remind that, according to the National Election Commission, by 5:00 p.m., 50.69 percent of the eligible people voted. By comparison, 5 years ago, attendance was 47.89 percent. This is simply a clear signal of the increasing interest of citizens as a consequence of the elections, which could affect decisions in the second round.
In the coming hours, Ipsos will besides print the alleged Late Poll – forecasts created on the basis of electoral commission data. In their case, the measurement mistake decreases gradually: first to 1 percent point, then to up to 0.5 points. The first summertime poll can be published on Monday night, another – Tuesday morning.
We'll gotta wait a small longer for the authoritative results. – "I hope that we will know these final results of the 1st circular of the presidential election on Tuesday morning. However, it is possible that the results will be known on Monday, but if so, late, around midnight. Everything depends on the foreign” – said president of PKW Sylwester Marciniak in an interview with Onet.
Since no of the candidates received an absolute majority of the votes, the second circular will be held under the Constitution – on Sunday, June 1. Whoever gets the simple majority wins. The President's election will be decided by the ultimate Court.
DF, thefad.pl / Source: media
