The June elections could bring a immense political shuffle. The Civic Coalition precedes the Law and Justice, but only by 3 percent points, and the Confederacy is rising in the polls. In turn the 3rd Road balances at the border of the electoral threshold. The fresh United Surveys poll for Virtual Poland shows that the majority of the Sejm can fall... to the PiS alliance with the Confederate.
If elections were held next Sunday, 67.9 percent of respondents would go to the polls; 33% of respondents would vote for KO, 30 percent for PiS - according to the United Surveys poll for Virtual Poland published on Wednesday.
As WP noted, both KO and PiS gain in the latest poll. In the case of KO, this is an increase of 1.8 percent points from the survey in early May. PiS recorded a score of 2.5 pp better than in the erstwhile study.
The last place in the podium was the Confederate with a score of 16 percent (an increase of 2.9 pp.). Further is the fresh Left, which would vote 6 percent (decrease by 1.6 p.p.), the 3rd Road with a score of 5.5 percent (decrease by 1.9 p.p.) and full - 5.2 percent (increase by 1.3 p.p.). 0.1 percent of those surveyed would like to vote for another party, and 4.2 percent would not know who they would like to vote for.
Virtual Poland points out that if PSL and Poland 2050 were to launch as a coalition, then the formation would not enter the Sejm due to the fact that it would not exceed the 8-percent threshold. Based on calculations utilizing the calculator Prof. Jarosław Flis from the Jagiellonian University, the portal indicated that in specified a scenario, the Civic Coalition would get 185 tickets in the Sejm, Law and Justice - 166 tickets, Confederation - 79 tickets, Left - 17 tickets, and Together - 12 tickets.
The HR adds that for the current ruling coalition this would mean losing power due to the fact that KO and Left would have 202 mandates and with support Together - 214. It is inactive insufficient to win a majority in parliament (at least 231 seats). The government could so form an alliance of the Law and Justice and the Confederation (245 mandates).
As the portal points out, in the script if the 3rd Road had decided on a launch expression as an election committee, it would have a 5% threshold. Then there would be six formations in the Sejm, and the 3rd Way would get 13 tickets. besides then, the current ruling coalition would have 209 (or 2020 with Together) and thus insufficient mandates. The PiS and the Confederation together would have 239 votes in the Sejm and could form a government.
The United Surveys survey was carried out on 6-8 June 2025 by a mixed method of CATI&CAWI on a typical example of 1,000 adult Poles. (PAP)
