Is the populist wave coming? Who will win the European Parliament elections?

European Parliament plenary in Brussels // photograph Ash Crow, Wikimedia Commons

In early June 27 associate States will hold elections to the European Parliament. The increasing wave of populism, especially its utmost right-wing variety, makes questionable the sustainability of the EU consensus based on the alliance of chadeks, socialists and liberals. In Poland it will be the second election this year and the last test for political parties before the presidential election. Will populists gain wider influence in the Union? Who will be the winner in our country?

From 6 to 9 June in the 27 associate States of the European Union, tens of millions of people will have the chance to elect 720 members of the European Parliament, the only straight elected body of the Union. The last elections to the European Parliament were held in 2019, just before Britain left the Community. Europe has changed a lot since then. In the same year, Britain completed Brexit. A year later, the Union and the remainder of the planet were shaken by the COVID-19 pandemic. On 24 February 2022, the neighbouring Russian Federation invaded Ukraine. The economical consequences of the war and the economical sanctions imposed on Russia have multiplied the negative effects of the pandemic and supply chains. associate States have fallen into an economical downturn, and Russia's ongoing aggression in the east of the continent, Israel's war with Hamas and the expanding threat of armed conflict in the Indo-Pacific region do not prompt optimism.

In this context, it is not amazing to see an increase in support for right-wing populists at the expense of the dominant Chadetic, social democratic and liberal groups in the EP. Populists have gained in the past years in importance in almost all EU country. In France, the Le Pen National Front is the most serious opposition to Emmanuel Macron's rule. In Spain, the far right-wing Vox organization was close to being formed along with the centreright of the government following the 2023 parliamentary elections. In Finland, the Eurosceptic Finnish organization has been a associate of the governing coalition since June last year. In neighbouring Sweden, a number Conservative government is supported in parliament by populist Swedish Democrats. In Hungary, Fidesz is indivisible, and in Slovakia pro-Russian Prime Minister Robert Fico strengthened himself by winning his ally, Peter Pellegrini, in the presidential election on 6 April. akin trends are noticeable in Portugal, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and Bulgaria. Most right-wing populist groups belong to the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) or to Identity and Democracy (ID). Currently, it is not likely that any of the conventional forces in the EP will break out of the sanitary cordon around populists, but their possible success in elections may weaken the pro-European consensus in Brussels.

This year, 3 factors favour anti-system forces. In addition to the already mentioned economical downturn, these are farmers' protests against the European Green Deal and migration pressures in the EU's front countries. The Green Deal is simply a programme of large-scale reforms in energy, manufacture and agriculture to make the EU climate neutral by 2050. The European Commission and the associate States plan to invest more than a trillion euros in green technologies, circular economy solutions and changes in agriculture to keep biodiversity and make organic farming, with a minimum usage of chemicals. These EU plans have led to farmers' protests in most associate States. The EC eased, under emphasis, any of the demands, e.g. removed the simplification of greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture from the 2040 targets and delayed the implementation of the request to leave 4% of arable land a year as a dead end. However, this does not satisfy any of the Green Deal's opponents, which the utmost right uses against EU policies. The migration situation at EU borders, especially in the Mediterranean, allows populists to conduct an election run based on fear. On 10 April the EP adopted a fresh migration pact to facilitate the screening of the past of migrants arriving in the EU and their possible return to countries of origin. Supporters of the Pact consider it to be a success of the EU and a way to weaken the support of the far right, but any NGOs specified as Amnesty International, proposed by the EP, hazard human rights violations.

In Poland, the upcoming European run is simply a test for political forces before the presidential election next year. Law and Justice, reinforced by good results in local elections, will want to show in June that his return to power is possible. The civilian Coalition, through its own launch, will want to strengthen its position as the undisputed Hegemon of the government coalition. The 3rd Way will defend its subjectivity towards the KO, while the Left will gotta face the consequences of a bad election result. The Confederation may want to capitalise the growth trend for the far right at European level, but strong support for the Law and Justice organization can translate into stagnation of support for the far right alliance. Ultimately, the result of the elections in Poland can be decided by attendance, which has not exceeded 50% since the beginning of our EU membership. It is impossible to find how the EP elections will end. However, it is certain that populists in Poland and Europe have not yet said the last word.

Oskar KMAK