Today it's about reconstruction. A loudly announced reconstruction of the government, and above all whether anything can change for the better in terms of the current government team.
Marcin Palade
Let's start with the reconstruction. She most likely wouldn't be here. Wouldn't it be the case if the election was won by Rafał Trzaskowski? If the strategy was shut down? Or, in another words, that power rests in the hands of only 1 political formation or 1 political camp?
The decision of the sovereign of June 1 was different. The election was won by Karol Nawrocki, supported by the Law and Justice. Thus we will have a surrender for at least the next 2.5 years, that is, the cooperation of the government-parliamentary majority of the centroleft, left-liberal and, on the another hand, of the president from right-right-conservative backgrounds.
As I mentioned – if it wasn't for Nawrocki, present there would be no reconstruction, but a complete strategy closure. Karol Nawrocki's win forced concrete action.
Prime Minister Tusk and his surroundings, a political environment, realized that Karol Nawrocki was coming to the Presidential Palace with a fresh sovereign legitimacy.
What does that mean? It is not like Andrzej Duda, who – I will remind you – obtained re-election in 2020 and is just finishing his presidency. This fresh legitimacy, which is crucial – after the parliamentary elections of 2023, which is the most fresh of all possible – is simply a immense asset of the recently elected president Karol Nawrocki.
Hence the effort to regroup, reorganize, in terms of the centre-left, government-parliamentary side, as we are just observing.
In fresh days and weeks, there have been quite a few reconstructions, but there have been quite a few verbal versions, and in fact we have had what we have been observing for a long time, which is confirmation that there is not much talk in the coalition about cooperation. This coalition is simply a cluster of 4 environments that fundamentally have only 1 common denominator. And with this they went to the election in 2023: to remove the Law and Justice from power, to remove the squad of Jarosław Kaczyński from power.
As it had already been postponed in the 2023 election, management had to be pursued. The results of this “taking charge of management” are seen – more than a year and a half after the centre-left took power, the indicators of support (or, in principle, deficiency of support) for the government, for the Prime Minister, as well as the weakness of the organization co-created in the polls, the current coalition is visible as on the palm of the hand.
Hence the effort to reset, rebuild something, or open a fresh chapter, in terms of the ruling centreleft. Hence these treatments to reduce the number of resorts, and this to make personnel changes.
Only that, as this cooperation – as I mentioned earlier – does not work within the centre-left environments forming the majority, so 1 could ask: why should it abruptly start to work? Why should 1 organization or another abandon this or another lucrative position for its activist or activist? Why would she decision to another political formations?
It will dominate – as we have seen many times in the past, and this concerns both left-wing and right-wing governments – selfishness. That is, defending primarily the interests of your political formation, not reasoning wider, in terms of the good of the full coalition.
And we will be dealing with this situation in the coming weeks and months. Even if formally this reconstruction takes place – due to the fact that it will most likely take place.
It's just that we should think about it and look back at the past. due to the fact that we've faced this situation many times. There were times erstwhile the formation won elections on a wave of enthusiasm, formed a government, tried to change – as in 1997. I mean the centre-right run of election solidarity. Then in 2001 – I mean the Alliance of Democratic Left. And somewhere in the 3rd year of government, that device was stuck, it didn't work the way it should. And despite many efforts and efforts, this device did not recover its motor, as it did at the beginning of the term.
This was the case, as I mentioned, for the right-wing AWS, and left-wing SLD. And we besides see this now, that despite the visible efforts of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the full centre-left squad – we inactive can't see on the horizon of specified a catch point, from which we could say that the bad streak of the ruling centre-left was over. This could be the centreleft for good – until the 2027 election.
What does that mean?
I have already mentioned, among another things, that this coalition is very inconsistent ideologically, programically, that it is affected by various contradictions, which is why we are dealing with a individual dispute.
But what is important, or most important, is the situation in which the government is headed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who mentally stopped about 10-11 years ago. He had his large period in Polish politics, coming to power in 2007 and winning the 2011 elections again. And de facto until 2014 we could say that it was 7 years of absolute dominance of Donald Tusk in Polish politics.
And then a promotion came to Brussels – and after that a bit of a cut off from Polish affairs. No social pulse. Donald Tusk returned to save his home party, or Civic Platform, the Civic Coalition. He led to the gathering of the majority for the present centreleft – although we should mention that Donald Tusk lost one more time his rivalry with Jarosław Kaczyński about who would be the first in the election.
The fact that he rules present is primarily the consequence of a very good consequence of the 3rd Way, or coalition (now non-existent) Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz (PSL) and Szymon Holownia (PL 2050).
Donald Tusk tries to work on the same reasoning patterns, but besides – erstwhile it comes to applicable action, the decisions made – like those several, respective years ago. But Poland has changed, Poles have changed, the environment has changed.
This – here I mean primarily media – denial of conventional media for social media. External conditions have besides changed. Many have changed their approach to how to prosecute politics. Completely different from how Donald Tusk did it a twelve years ago.
If Donald Tusk can't sense what most of the society thinks – that's what problems come from in the last fewer months.
And there is no indication that Donald Tusk should mentally correct Poland in 2025, alternatively than – somewhere in his thoughts – all the time in 2013 or 2014.
So what happens after the reconstruction?
She can bring any calm – for 2 weeks, for a month. Then the full political period will begin after the end of the vacation and vacation period. And most likely again the question that has already appeared respective times in the last fewer days will come back: do we not request to go further in this reconstruction? By not reconstructing ministers and ministries and listing the Prime Minister of the Government?
These are voices that scope – for now – from the left-liberal and sympathetic publicists. Of which any sense precisely what I am telling you right now. And who is aware – this part of the publicists favoring the present centreleft – that with this horse Donald Tuski, this car will not successfully arrive until the 2027 election.
And if he won't make it, then we gotta change the driver.
One name has appeared on the horizon for a long time: Minister of abroad Affairs Radosław Sikorski, who, as reported by the media in fresh days, sharpens his teeth for premiere, although he does so for now in a way that does not offend the very acting Prime Minister.
Will this be the beginning of his fight for premiere? When, over time, from week to week, more and more people inside the formation – that is, in the Civic Platform and Coalition – will question Donald Tusk's mandate to act as Prime Minister?
Will Radosław Sikorski usage it? The 1 that's always out there in the back seat, waiting for the convenient minute to take control of the political environment and become Prime Minister?
Will this minute come – specified as the late autumn of this year, or possibly next spring?
That's what we'll find out by watching closely what's happening. And there is simply a lot going on – erstwhile it comes to the ruling centreleft, erstwhile it comes to the main governing organization – Platform, Civic Coalition.
