Politicians, halt expanding uncertainty!

Just due to the fact that uncertainty cannot be measured does not mean that we do not feel it and that it does not affect our decisions. 1 can say, then, erstwhile uncertainty is greater in the lives of people, nations, and the full world, and erstwhile less. economical crises, armed conflicts or epidemics undoubtedly make uncertainty grow.

Economics is the discipline of managing in insecurity. Entrepreneurs are not certain that their ideas will pass the marketplace test and bring profits, employees – that in a fewer months they will inactive have employment and consumers – that the acquired product will actually satisfy their needs. There are many factors of uncertainty, and the overall level of uncertainty cannot be measured. This is different in economical contrast to ‘risk’, which can be quantified and can so be insured.

Just due to the fact that uncertainty cannot be measured does not mean that we do not feel it and that it does not affect our decisions. 1 can say, then, erstwhile uncertainty is greater in the lives of people, nations, and the full world, and erstwhile less. economical crises, armed conflicts or epidemics undoubtedly make uncertainty grow. This has a circumstantial effect on economical activity, including a tendency to invest. utilizing the language of economics, in periods of increased uncertainty, the cost of capital, i.e. the expected rate of return, as investors anticipate a higher premium due to the greater probability of loss. This in turn means that the investment will be less.

In Poland, for years economists have shown that the investment rate, i.e. the value of fixed assets in relation to GDP, is low (third lowest in the European Union). In subsequent electoral campaigns, politicians announce to boost investment and give fiery speeches about the mistakes of predecessors, and later make plans and strategies. Mateusz Morawiecki announced that the investment rate would increase to 25% of GDP. Later, erstwhile the rate of investment went down against the announcements, Jarosław Kaczyński accused entrepreneurs of this state of affairs related to opposition parties, accusing them of giving up profitable ventures pending change of power.

In winter Donald Tusk announced that the current year would be a breakthrough year, and the investment value would be record-breaking, conveniently ignoring the fact that the evidence only in nominal terms alternatively than in relation to GDP. However, it turns out that with these nominally evidence inputs, the investment rate will be lower than in 2023 erstwhile the government changed.

We have plans, strategies, programs, grants and incentives, beautiful declarations and wonderful announcements. However, there is inactive not adequate investment. Investments that will be crucial for the further improvement of Poland in the close future, erstwhile demography and the situation on the labour marketplace will deteriorate rapidly all year.

However, no 1 focuses on uncertainty in plans, strategies or declarations. fresh years have led to a immense increase in uncertainty for possible investors around the planet – pandemic, a full-scale invasion of Russia into Ukraine, and late another installment of Donald Trump's customs wars. This uncertaintyyou can peculiarly feel in Poland and another countries of the region, adjacent straight to Ukraine.

The increase in uncertainty caused by external factors is not influenced by national politicians (although they can respond differently, for example by closing forests during a pandemic or allowing entrepreneurs to act normally). However, this increase in external uncertainty may compensate for reducing interior uncertainty.

Much has been written about the damaging economical policy of investors of the eight-year regulation of law and justice: speeding up the volatility of regulations concerning the conduct of business, arbitrary imposition of taxation increases on selected industries, the nationalisation of companies, prosecution proceedings against entrepreneurs and managers or the usage of state-controlled companies for political purposes. The increasing politicization of the economy surely did not encourage investment in Poland.

However, the change in power did not bring much improvement. Political investigations against entrepreneurs are dead. The volatility of the law is hampered by the presidential veto (although – 1 must besides indicate – presidential veto can besides increase uncertainty, as happened in the case of veto law extending the legality of Ukrainian citizens' stay in Poland).

However, on the another hand, we have the continuation of the worst practices of the erstwhile power. The Ministry of Agriculture, following a slogan about “Polish land in Polish hands”, stopped tenders on agricultural land after erstwhile PGRs. The investors who have leased land for decades, who have contributed cognition and innovation to Polish agriculture, are expected to leave. They will be replaced by state companies and institutes.

In the field of waste management, the Ministry of Climate and Environment has presented an extended maker work bill. Private packaging recovery organisations operating on the Polish marketplace for more than 2 decades will be forced to end their operations and their tasks will be taken over by the National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management. Private competition will replace the state monopoly.

When, after many years of comparatively low profits, overburdened fiscally and regulatoryly, banks in Poland yet began to recover a bit, the Ministry of Finance announced that in the name of "social justice" banks should become their "excess" profits "share". The applicable bill presented at the end of August, and taxation surcharge – if the parliament voted for it and it was not vetoed by the president – would have entered from 1 January next year, which is just a small over 4 months after the bill appeared.

Business associations and NGOs have been calling for legislative silence and extension for years vacatio legis (especially in the case of rules on taxation rates). This appeal is even more timely present erstwhile the precarious global situation is peculiarly affecting investors. We do not request further incentives to increase specified private investments in Poland; it is adequate for politicians to halt with their unsettling actions.