On 25 March this year, Dr. Mateusz Piskorski, a political scientist, an expert in global issues, and the editor of the weekly magazine "Myśl Polska".
The gathering was devoted to forecasts and scenarios concerning events related to the Ukrainian-Russian conflict and the anticipation of ending it. At the outset, the talker stressed that our country lacks space for free and unfettered political discussion, and the public debate is increasingly marginalised. This is peculiarly actual of global issues, including issues related to the ongoing war in Ukraine. There is only 1 communicative in the mass media regarding the causes and circumstances of the war and the assessment of the dangers involved, while questioning this one-sided media message leads to inevitable accusations of alleged pro-Russianism.
Referring to the conflict in Ukraine, Dr. Mateusz Piskorski stressed that the forecasts assuming a fast triumph by 1 of the parties should be rejected, as completely unrealistic and detached from reality. specified scenarios are created exclusively for propaganda purposes, for the purposes of the conflict party's information policy. This is the nature of both Russia's announcements concerning the territorial control of Ukraine (at least to the Dnieper line), as well as Ukrainian scenarios for the recovery of Crimea. According to the speaker, even if the offensive of the Russian side was successful, it is improbable to keep the controlled territories in the long term. On the another hand, by comparing the possible of both sides and the losses incurred by the Ukrainian army (almost 5% of soldiers per day from each branch) – the anticipation of returning Ukraine to pre-2014 borders cannot be realistically assumed.
According to Dr. Piskorski, extending the current conflict could bring Ukraine to ruin. This is not only about the demolition of war but besides about the disastrous demographic consequences. Even now, the demographic losses of Ukraine, depending on sources, are estimated at 100,000 to 250,000 dead, and the mass emigration of Ukrainians outside their borders must besides be taken into account. This besides gives emergence to consequences for Poland, which can become a neighbour of the "fallen state" – full of pathology and crime and revealed economically, to which the prolonged state of war inevitably leads.
In the next part of the meeting, Dr. Mateusz Piskorski presented opportunities for ending, or even suspending the armed conflict in Ukraine. The talker presented an example of the freezing of the conflict between South Korea and North Korea, which proved to be more permanent than many formal-tractive solutions. The main problem for the anticipation of specified a solution, however, is the opposition of the Western world, especially the Anglo-Saxon states.
According to Dr. Piskorski, the deescalation of the conflict does not service as an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin, late issued by the global Criminal Court, as it closes the way for possible peace talks. At the same time, as not a viable alternative, although the inevitable alternate is, according to Dr. Matthew Piskorski, Russia's ability to usage tactical atomic weapons in the ongoing conflict – however, specified a threat may increase in the event of Russian failures in the war. Thus, the only sensible solution should be in the opinion of the talker to search to deescalate the conflict and end this devastating war on both sides.
Michał Radzikowski
