Poland in a time of large turmoil. How does the war in Ukraine, relations with the US and the EU and the upcoming elections affect our abroad policy?

gazetafenestra.pl 2 years ago

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has reduced the sense of safety in Europe. This forced our country to both engage in helping its neighbour from the east border and to ease the tensions with its Western partners, including the dispute over the regulation of law with the EU. The visit by U.S. president Joe Biden, second since the outbreak of the war, may be evidence of Poland's stronger position in the region.

President Biden's visit to Poland has the possible to become an crucial event for our country's abroad policy. Much has changed since Biden's erstwhile arrival last March. The Russians were driven out of much of the land captured at the beginning of the war. However, there is now a race against time on both sides of the front in connection with rumors of a large Russian offensive to advance the western tanks to the front in Donbasa. In this situation, another visit by the president of the United States of America to Poland, during which he confirmed and even strengthened Western support for Ukraine, may be an crucial motion for the continuation of the war. It was besides a very crucial event for the global prestige of Poland, powerfully active in assistance.

Since the Russian invasion of our neighbour Poland has faced an highly hard challenge in its safety policy, which was to support the fighting Ukraine and, if possible, to prevent the collapse of its government. Our country was not alone in these efforts. Since the start of the war, the United States of America has mobilised European allies to supply military, economical and humanitarian support to Ukraine. However, fresh circumstances were not just a origin of challenges. They besides opened fresh opportunities for Poland and the Polish government.

The invasion of Ukraine forced the administration of Joe Biden to change attitudes towards the Polish authorities. The coldness of the relation so far, caused by close contacts between the Law and Justice with Donald Trump's administration and late congratulations of president Andrzej Duda to Biden after his election victory, had to be completed in the face of a common enemy. The United States of America was forced to cooperate more closely, especially erstwhile supplying western weapons to Ukraine, so there is no strong criticism of past changes in Polish judiciary, which are an inflammatory point in Poland's relations with Brussels.

Since 2015, the dispute over the regulation of law with the European Union, caused by controversial reforms of the judiciary, by the Minister of Justice Zbigniew Ziobry, was very embarrassing for the PiS government. The freezing of funds for the implementation of the National Recovery Plan in 2021 was peculiarly problematic due to Poland's violation of the regulation of law. However, the outbreak of the war in Ukraine led to a softening of the attitude of the European Commission, which, after many negotiations, agreed to implement KPO on condition that the milestones contained therein were implemented, with the elimination of the Disciplinary Chamber of the ultimate Court. Unfortunately, the Polish government was incapable to take advantage of this chance due to the fact that Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and PiS president Jarosław Kaczyński were incapable to communicate with Minister Ziobra and his organization Solidarna Polska on voting in the Sejm changes in Polish judiciary without the aid of the opposition.

The reaction of another European countries to Russian aggression in Ukraine proved to be an crucial issue of Polish public debate. In particular, Germany and France have become the object of criticism of government politicians, but besides opposition, due to their focus on reducing the hazard of politics towards Russia. Prime Minister Morawiecki had late experienced a major diplomatic success erstwhile he became the media face of the coalition of states with German Leopard tanks and inclined to hand them over to Ukraine, which nevertheless required German approval. Eventually, Germany agreed to deliver Leopards erstwhile the Americans promised to deliver Ukraine's Abrams tanks.

In the last year Poland's abroad relations with the countries of our region have changed significantly. Efforts to support Ukraine brought Poland closer to both the Baltic countries and Finland and Sweden. At the same time, however, there was a crisis in relations with an crucial PiS ally, that is, Viktor Orban, who ruled in Hungary, whose pro-Russian policy proved to be besides different from Poland's views. The triumph of the pro-Western erstwhile military Petr Pavl in the fresh presidential elections in the Czech Republic and his promise to visit Poland may be an announcement of improved bilateral relations.

Undoubtedly, the forthcoming parliamentary elections in Poland will be an crucial origin affecting the form of Polish abroad policy. This can be seen, for example, by anti-German rhetoric in public media. In this context, consideration should be given to what abroad policy the current opposition intends to pursue. It can be assumed that the government of centrists, liberals or left would search to improve relations with the EU, settle disputes with Germany and regional isolation of Hungary while maintaining support for Ukraine and the pro-American course in planet politics. By the autumn elections, however, we should anticipate first and foremost government activity on the global stage, which, in the face of persistent economical difficulties, may prove to be an crucial tool to stabilise the support of the right.

Oskar KMAK

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