The parliamentary majority passed a bill in the Parliament that will have a real impact on the number of votes cast in the upcoming parliamentary elections. The game is played by an additional half million votes. How many fresh electoral committees can be created, and how will this affect the result of the elections?
A change worth half a million votes - part I
This is the I part of the analysis, as part of free access to the OGB Pro analytical platform - the second part containing simulations of the impact of changes on the division of mandates and endorsements in all districts to the Sejm and legislature is in Part II (For OGB Pro users)
On January 26, the Sejm adopted changes in the electoral order, which are intended to origin respective to respective 1000 fresh circuits to be created to vote. By allowing smaller circuits (with less voters) to be created, the authors of the changes want to increase attendance in those places where access to the voting circuits could be restricted.
Checking:
How can these changes affect election attendance?
Does greater “concentration” of electoral venues in a given area affect attendance?
How much can attendance increase in elections and in which districts?
How can possible changes affect election results and the allocation of mandates?
Impact of population density on attendance
To begin with, we looked at the impact of population density on election turnout. In Poland we have 380 districts including 66 Grodzki districts (citys with region rights) and 314 local districts. The average attendance in the 2015 and 2019 parliamentary elections in the Grodzki counties was 57.8% and 67.96% and in the land districts was 47.37% and 58.34%. In Poland, the average population density is 117 people/km2, of which in cities with region rights it is an average of 1610 people/km2 and in districts with 81 people/km2.
From the 2015 and 2019 election data analysis, we can make it clear that there is simply a advanced correlation between the 2 variables. The statistical territory with a density of 500 people/km2 will have a turnout of 49.9% while the statistical territory with a density of 1000 people/km2 will have a turnout of 52.6%. This means that any increase in density by 100 ps/km2 will increase attendance by 0.47 ps.
These figures, of course, do not prove anything, but that among the many factors that influence participation in elections (such as education, age), the population density is besides an crucial factor. It is not known from now on that urban residents vote more frequently than agrarian residents. In fresh years, attendance in both groups has grown, although it is crucial for Polish policy that attendance in the local districts (Polish region districts) has grown comparatively more than in cities.
Also important, the increase in attendance in Earth districts translated into a good result of the Law and Justice in all election after 2015. It was in these places that PiS gained the top advantage over its competitors.
There is besides 1 more thing, since 2011, the structure of voters in Poland, who appear at the polling station, has changed. The inhabitants of powiat Poland in 2011 represented 61.49% of all voters, and in 2020, during the presidential election they already constituted 66% of all voters, thus shifting the focus of the decision making from cities to agrarian areas. Importantly, the centre of gravity moves from densely populated areas to little populated areas.
Should changes in the electoral code aid this process and accelerate the process of shifting the point of gravity in elections?
Impact of the size of election committees on attendance
To see how attendance is affected by voting circuits, first you request to know how the size of the voting circuit is correlated with attendance. We decided to divide the size of the electoral commissions into 3 groups - but only in the districts of Earth:
up to 750 people (such circuits are in Earth districts 6489)
750-1500 people (such circuits are in land districts 9258)
above 1500 people (such circuits are in the land districts 3608)
What is attendance in these 3 types of committees?
Turns out the bigger the committee, the higher the turnout. The average turnout in circuits of up to 750 voters is 54.95% in circuits of between 750 and 1500 voters is 59.77% and in circuits of more than 1500 voters of 64.76%.
In the smallest regional electoral commissions attendance is on average lower by as much as 9.81 p.p. than in committees with more than 1500 electorates authorized to vote. Could the reason for lower attendance be that smaller commissions are located in a more hard area and constitute a “collection” of voters from a larger area as opposed to a large commission located, for example, in a city (but not a city on the rights of a county) where the distance to the election commission is usually respective 100 meters?
Impact of condensing of election committees on attendance
It may be crucial to realize the impact of the distance to the election committee on attendances to check the density of the circuits to be voted on in the given area. To this end, we have created an indicator of the number of circuits to vote at 100 km2.
In the beginning, we isolated data on Earth districts and cities under the laws of the county. As it turns out, the average in cities is as much as 81.52 constituency per 100km2 while in districts the average is only 7.23 constituency per 100km2. This, of course, has an impact on election attendance.
However, the largest cities disagree a lot from agrarian areas, including education, age, trust in the institutions of the state. That's why we analyzed Earth's districts in terms of the density of the voting circuits.
The average density of voting circuits in local districts (which we have in Poland 314 and has 2⁄3 voters) is 7.23 circuits per 100 km2. We have 207 counties that are below average density and 107 counties that are above that average.
Is there a correlation between circuit density and attendance? Turns out it is.
The statistical territory with 5 committees per 100km2 will have an average turnout of 55.52%, while the statistical territory with 10 committees per 100km2 will have a turnout of 58.53%, which means that all increase in density of 5 committees per 100km2 increases the average turnout by 3pp. Each fresh circuit election committee of 100km2 should statistically increase attendance by 0.6pp.
Where are the counties below average? Most of them, due to the fact that 28 in the Wielkopolska Voivodeship is the second highest in the Mazowieckie voivodship with 27 counties below average. On the podium is inactive Warmia-Masurian Voivodeship with 19 counties below the average density of the circuits.
How many fresh circuits will be formed?
We do not know what the final result of the fresh electoral government will be and how many fresh regional electoral commissions will be established and where they will be established.
However, we can make assumptions. We've divided Earth's districts into 4 more homogeneous groups (with about the same number of counties) to better specify possible changes:
Group 1 counties with a population density of up to 55 persons/km2 and a density of up to 6obw/100km2
Group 2 counties with a population density of more than 55 persons/km2 and a density of more than 6obw/100km2
Group 1 counties with a population density of up to 55 persons/km2 and a density of up to 6obw/100km2
Group 1 counties with a population density of up to 55 persons/km2 and a density of up to 6obw/100km2
As you can imagine, the group 1 gained the most profit (change of 1.2 pp. for each area/100km2). Later there was a second group (change of 0.62 pp. for each of the/100km2). The podium closes group 3 (change of 0.34 pp. to each area/100km2). Group 4 reported the least effect on the increase in circuits (change of 0.19 pp. on each area/100km2)
The appropriate amount of data per group allowed us to build a more diverse model and at the same time destruct utmost groups on which we observe very advanced or very low constituency density. To make the model more accurate, we examined the correlation of attendance with a full of 4 variables:
Population density
Circuit density at 100km2
Average remuneration
Number of persons aged 15-39 to 60+
Based on this model, we have 2 scenarios.
Scenario 1:
Election Commissioners will want to compensate for the “outstanding” districts to the average density of the circuits per km2 to the level of 7 circuits per km2.
In order to do this, 5646 fresh voting circuits would should be created, in a full of 196 counties. Most in Minsk region (142 circuits) and Rawski region (141 circuits) and Olsztyn region (125 circuits).
In specified a scenario, attendance in all Earth districts could increase by 0.95 pp., and in all Poland by 0.64 p.p. which gives 190 1000 fresh voters. The largest increase is recorded in the group 1 - 127 thousand, In Group 2, it's 58,000. In group 3, almost 4 1000 while in group 4 about 500.
Scenario 2:
Election Commissioners will want to increase the density of regional electoral commissions in local districts to 10 committees per 100km2 (i.e. to increase the average by half).
In order to do this, there would should be 13341 fresh circuits to vote, in a full of 247 districts. Most in Minsk region (245 circuits) and Olsztyn region (231) and Rawski region (213 circuits).
In this case, attendance in Earth districts would increase by 2.18 p.m. and in the full country by 1.47 p.m., which would translate into 435 1000 fresh voters at urns.
The biggest increase is recorded in the group 1 - 249 thousand, In Group 2, it's almost 137,000, In group 3, nearly 42,000, while in group 4, almost 8,000.
In the case of the second scenario, there would should be as much as 50% more committees than is presently the case, which seems unlikely. The PCW will most likely decide on an indirect option. However, what is important, knowing how many fresh committees will emergence and what is crucial - where, we will be able to calculate the impact of the fresh circuits on the vote as a whole.
How this change and fresh voters would translate into election results, the allocation of mandates and the chance of individual committees to win the majority are analysed in the second part of the analysis.
More from day one:
Will the drinks in the fridge be more expensive? Traders are preparing a price bomb
Young people live with their parents longer and longer. And it's not their fantasy.
Why do Poles change jobs? It's not always about money.
