As all week I invitation you to the latest subjective list of top 10 information from Russia. And in today's account of a well-known company that yet leaves Russia, about a inexpensive ruble, oils government lies. the collapse of air freight traffic and the sealing of sanctions. It will besides be about advanced funding.
Here we go!
Place 10 Putin one more time points to Juan
Russian president Vladimir Putin said that by limiting the usage of the dollar to any countries, The United States is making a immense mistake and is hurting itself.
“We would usage a dollar but they (US.) do not give us. How can we make accounts? In a currency acceptable to our trading partners. Juan is 1 specified currency, especially since it is besides utilized by the IMF."
The share of Chinese currency in export accounts, which did not exceed 0.5% in January 2022, increased to 16% in December and is now approaching 20%. The share of accounts in exports in the currencies of "unfriendly" countries (mainly in dollars and euro) fell from 87% in early 2022 to 48% at the end of 2022, informs the Bank of Russia.
It is expected that this year Juan will displace ruble transactions and the dollar part, reaching 40-50 % of all transactions. .
Place 9 Kazakhstan will introduce a traceability mechanics for goods
From 1 April Kazakhstan will introduce an work to issue accompanying transport letters for goods (CNT) in common trade with EUG countries. The manager of the Administrative Department of the State taxation Commission of the Ministry of Finance Kadyr Ismagulov informed about this.
The issue of CNT takes place in electronic form before crossing the border (using electronic digital signature), which excludes the anticipation of issuing papers for fictional customers and consignors of goods, bankrupts, companies in the icification, etc.
With this innovation, Kazakhstan wants to show that it respects the restrictions imposed by Western countries on Russia.
Russia remains Kazakhstan's largest trading partner. According to Reuters agency, her exports increased by a 4th in 2022, to $8.8 billion. The increase in trade is so strong that Kazakh customs are overwhelmed. In fresh weeks after Turkey's decision to restrict transit, Russian companies are increasingly actively asking their Kazakh partners to aid circumvent Western sanctions and bring in the essential goods.
Prime Minister Mikhail Miszustin said that the advanced level of the budget deficit in early 2023 was due to "pre-financing in advance". According to him, the increase in the advance advance advance was 52%.
Answering the question, Viktor Seliverstov, says:
As you now look at the deficit for more than 2 months, which has passed, we have a deficit, as many write, of 3.3 trillion rubles: income – 3 trillion, expenditure – 6.3 trillion – on 8 March. What happened? The reason is simple. We've been discussing it for a long time to get the money moving from 1 January. This is called advanced funding. We moved any of the expenses to the beginning of the year so that the first step would not be to make contracts. Do you know how advanced advancement is? Plus 52%.
All right, my comment: 'cause I can't quote him anymore. The Prime Minister says that the budget gap is caused by increased expenditure and that is part of the truth. Above all, it was the gross that fell. This is due to the price ceiling for oil and inexpensive gas. taxation decreases on natural materials are 50% year-on-year.
As for expenditure, it should add that factories or alternatively arms workshops request to have higher liquidity and these advances go mainly to them plus spending in the construction manufacture and buying Chinese machinery and components. Comrades from Beijing request a pile of money in advance. . besides the chances of improving the situation are slim if the war continues.. Rather, the gap tends to grow and precipitation will should be further increased in the mediate of the year along with empty warehouses. The associate should come to me for an explanation.
Place 7 Life expectancy according to Rosstat
The average life expectancy in Russia in 2022 increased year to year 2.7, to 72.8, reported Rosstat. nevertheless , the indicator did not scope pre-pandemic values .
This occurred after a two-year decline in the pandemic period, erstwhile in 2020 life expectancy decreased by 1.8 years and then in 2021 by another 1.4 years.
The expected life expectancy exceeded 73 years in the second 4th of 2022, said president Vladimir Putin. "It is crucial to consistently prosecute the goal of expanding the life expectancy in Russia to 78 years by 2030," Putin said.
On average in Russia, women's life expectancy increased more than men in a year. The rate for women increased by 3.3 years, to 77.8, and for men by 2 years, to 67.6, is based on Rosstat data.
The goal put to Rostat by Putin is realized by innovative methods.
. Overall, the increase in the average life expectancy in the regions was heavy dependent on census results, which is not included in the figures for 2021 and earlier," says Russian expert Jefremov. "The census revealed a very large number of previously unlisted residents in any regions, while in another areas, on the contrary, it importantly reduced the fixed population due to the discovery of "dead souls" which no longer live there"
Auditors of the Chamber of Auditors, on the another hand, say that due to factors specified as the conflict in Ukraine, an increase in the level of anxiety and stress among the population, and the impact of sanctions on wellness care, the regime's mark will not be achieved in 2030. I think they underestimate Rosstat's potential.
Place 6a Leroy leaves Russia
Russian stores of the Leroy Merlin construction hypermarket network will be handed over to the local board. This was reported on March 24 by the Adeo group, which owns the network.
"After more than 18 years in Russia, handing over control of Leroy Merlin to the local board should save jobs for 45,000 employees and guarantee that the company remains in the service of its residents," the company's announcement states.
The group noted that the relocation of stores had started respective months earlier in line with global standards. ‘The agreement will be approved by the applicable authorities in Russia. Throughout the process, ADEO's precedence is liable action, respecting all employees," added the company.
It should be noted that Adeo has taken this step despite many earlier announcements that he does not intend to leave Russia. It turns out the force makes sense and putting the company on the list of companies sponsoring the criminal government has been effective. However, the most crucial was the economical account. The company requires urgent restructuring. While the fresh local board has announced that all jobs will be maintained , in the longer word this is fiction .
Place 6b Austrian Raiffeisen Bank global (RBI) under pressure
The Austrian Raiffeisen Bank global (RBI) has said that it continues to research various options regarding the future of its Russian subsidiary in connection with reports of the European Central Bank (ECB) requirements for leaving the Russian market. 
Reuters previously, citing its own sources, reported that the ECB had requested the Austrian bank group Raiffeisen Bank to shut down operations in Russia and immediately retreat from the Russian market.
In February, the US Treasury Department launched an investigation into the Austrian RBI Group in connection with its Russian activities. According to Der Standard, Raiffeisen Bank explores the anticipation of exchanging raiffeisenbank (a subsidiary of Raiffeisen Bank in Russia) with Sbierbank for assets of Sberbank Europe.
Leaving Russia by the Austrians would be a powerful blow to the Russian financial strategy and the ability to circumvent sanctions.
Place 5 Inflation in Russia
A monthly InFOM survey commissioned by the Bank of Russia showed that the Russians are little aware of inflation. At the same time, both subjectively observed price increases and inflation expectations decreased. Consumer assurance continued to grow, reaching a maximum of 5 years. It can be assumed that people's fears of rising prices are waiving, but paradoxically, their optimism combined with a advanced savings rate can accelerate inflation again. The method of collecting data that does not guarantee full anonymity of the example shall besides be taken into account.
At the same time, again more than half of the population (51%) believes that the Central Bank will not keep inflation within the 4% mark this year, the price increase will be much higher.
The combination of low inflation expectations and affirmative consumer sentiments is rather unusual. advanced assurance can precede or correspond to a crucial increase in request and prices. The rate of peculiarly cash savings is presently 18.6%, 1 of the highest rates in many years. More than 1 3rd of Russians (37%) like to keep cash savings at home, according to a survey conducted by the NAFI analytical centre.
The availability of this money and the willingness to spend it is, on the 1 hand, good news for the marketplace and the economy as a whole, on the another hand, an alarming signal indicating a possible acceleration of inflation even against falling inflation expectations.
The weakening of the ruble we observe should reverse inflation expectations and the tendency to consume. Therefore, the attention of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to the hazard of accelerating inflation is full justified. On the another hand, the global recession we are observing and the drastic declines of Russian manufacture and services are disinflationary. Therefore, the most likely script is stagflation for the nearest months until the budgetary situation and many private companies become critical,
Place 4 Lies Minister Nowak means a fewer words about oil
According to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Nowak, the simplification in oil extraction by 500,000 barrels a day in March, for which Russia has voluntarily decided, led to a simplification in the oil rebate on the national Urals export brand. Russia has extended the cut-off period until July informs the Deputy Prime Minister.
Sounds logical, doesn't it? Lower production higher price. but that's not true. There was no drop in production in March. There's a fewer more days, but the data from the mediate of the period showed something andNo, no, no. And the second aspect - price. The beginning of the period is simply a higher price by a fewer dollars compared to February. The reason, however, are the CIF Indian contracts which fall under the ceiling and Russian oil freight costs have begun to fall. Similarly, the Chinese marketplace is different due to the fact that there in the hope of recovery (which erstwhile in turn ) request increased. And that's the secret. Neither did your Deputy Prime Minister and Russia. possibly in April production will start to decline but it will be forced alternatively than planned action. besides the price may fall, although I bet personally stagnation. And all through American and European banks that are dragging the price of Urals down. And if we had an average of $55. ,it was last week that we came down well below $50, approaching the next $45 border, setting a two-year record. This means that the extraction in most half is unprofitable and Asian discounts are deadly for companies. The Prime Minister knows this very well and plays the function of a useful idiot, not to say that crude oil is sent from Baltic ports at a price of $35. Everything's under control.
Worse still, lowering the price cap to 50USD is almost bound.
Place 3 Ukraine imposes fresh transit rates ?
Ukraine for the second time since the beginning of the year, this time twice, wants to increase the transit costs of Russian oil, which passes through its territory via the relationship pipeline towards Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Ukrainian pipeline operator Ukrtransnaphtha intends to lift the tariff for the transit of Russian oil through the main pipeline from 1 April relationship through Ukraine – said Argus agency, We are talking about doubling the rate to EUR 27.2 per tonne. The increase in the tariff in Kiev is explained by the costs of restoring oil transport infrastructure destroyed during the war.
Kiev understands that if we are talking about Russian oil, Russia is in a hard situation. full abandonment of gas pumping relationship is not only impossible but very costly," added expert Paweł Medvedev.
He explained that the difficulty of Russia's refusal is to shift from European buyer to non-European buyer: the country has problems selling energy resources, especially gas and oil. Ukrainian authorities are aware of this. The expert noted that Russia had previously changed its energy policy to "go to immense concessions" lowering the price in order to search buyers. However, if we keep doing this for a long time, the state will bear besides much budgetary burden.
Place 2 Slow devaluation of the ruble
The euro rate exceeded 83.5 rubles, the dollar rose to 77 rubles, the last time specified values were seen last April . The banks have already reviewed the optimistic projections of the ruble course downwards. Analysts emphasize: global financial events are developing rapidly and unpredictablely.
Many banks began reviewing Russian currency forecasts for worse. Thus, Tinkoff Investments in its December strategy predicted in the first half of 2023 a rate of 67-70 rubles per dollar. Now in the second 4th a dollar at 73-75 rubles, by the end of the year – at 74-78. Promsvyazbank raised the average yearly rate from 72.2 to 78.5 rubles per dollar. The projected exchange rate at the end of this year changed from 78.2 to 82 rubles per dollar.
In my opinion, the forecasts are inactive besides optimistic and the further slide of Russian currency is inevitable.
There are respective reasons for weakening the ruble, primarily a fall in oil prices and sanctions. Against the background of the increasing banking crisis in the US and Europe. Oil has become noticeably cheaper. Investors are afraid of a strong decline in request for energy resources. As a result, Brent has fallen by 19.4% on the London Stock Exchange since the beginning of the period and is presently oscillating around 77USD per barrel and Russian Urals has followed it and costs an average of $46 per barrel
A revival of legal imports, mainly from China, was besides added to the negative effects on Russian currency. "The visit of Chinese Communist organization leader Xi Jinping in Moscow gave hope to increase Chinese imports. This is negative for ruble, as business begins to find the supply of goods, meaning it sells ruble and buys yuan in large quantities.
There is besides an increase in the drain on the savings of citizens' rubles. Against the background of the systematic collapse of the ruble, of course, the desire of citizens to hold a rubly declines. any of the money goes to abroad accounts, any are exchanged for tough currency. Finally, there was a immense budget deficit.
Russian economists study against authoritative communicative that Russia has lost profits from oil and gas due to redirecting export flows from Europe to Asia.
Place 1 The volume of air freight traffic in Russia decreased by almost 60% in 2022
Due to restrictions on access to global markets, the full volume of freight, including mail, by Russian airlines fell to 599.55,000 tonnes in 2022, which is 59.42% lower than in 2021, is based on data from the national Air Transport Agency published in the Single Interministerial Information and statistic strategy (EMISS). The indicators thus reached the level of 2001, erstwhile the airline carried 614,000 tons of cargo.
According to Rosstat, the volume of freight transport by Russian transport companies fell by 1.2% last year, to 7.95 billion tons. rail supplies decreased by 3.7%, to 1.24 billion tons, pipeline transport – by 6%, to 1.1 billion tons, and road transport, did not change and amounted to 5.51 billion tons. Experts anticipate a sharp fall in transport towards Europe in 2023. However, a large increase in Chinese direction is planned.
22.03.20223 authoritative Beginning of Sadness in Russia. Feel free to watch video material
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