The beginning of the end of the KO-PiS?

The political telenovela entitled "The Break in the PiS" reached its dramatic finale. Mateusz Morawiecki, along with a group of forty parliamentarians, did not bow before president Kaczyński, thus deciding his political future.

The divided on the lie-right has created understandable emotions in our environment. It is clear to all that the end of the Law and Justice organization may besides mean the end of the Tusk Party. It is the false dichotomy of PiS – antiPiS that has been the driving force of Polish politics for more than 2 decades, bringing it to a simple push of half savage political tribes.

The possible of breaking up this dance is highly tempting. But let us not be misled. This is just 1 possible scenario, not the only one, not the most likely one.

But let's start at the beginning of this story.

We can see clearly present that Jarosław Kaczyński's fundamental political mistake was to offer Mateusz Morawiecki a portfolio of the president of the Council of Ministers. The ambitious but deprived of its own facilities, the Prime Minister rapidly began utilizing many instruments, available to him by virtue of his function, to environment himself with a group of people loyal primarily to him. He didn't gotta rush. Six years is long adequate to act discreetly adequate not to origin Kaczyński's anxiety, but besides effective adequate to build his own strong faction. utilizing his position, Morawiecki introduced respective twelve politicians loyal to him, not to the organization or personally to Kaczyński, into the Sejm, the legislature and the European Parliament. This is how the situation that we are observing has arisen.

As Sławomir Mentzen pointed out, Mateusz Morawiecki could no longer wait. The PiS as a full could not simply be taken over through the succession of Kaczyński. interior divisions are besides deep, the interests of individual factions besides contradictory, and the individual ambitions of their leaders besides great. Besides, no 1 expects Kaczyński to voluntarily quit to political retirement.

Even if he was forced to do so, the “butlers” would not recognise Morawiecki's leadership. They'd leave with a large part of the organization camera. At best, the PiS would become a federation of fighting camps. At worst, he would break up in the atmosphere of each other's accusations. From the position of Morawiecki, no of these scenarios appeared as beneficial.

While remaining in the party, however, Morawiecki risked even more, possibly the full political future. Kaczyński could “cut out” his people in the final phase of drafting electoral letters, leaving him no time to make his own committee. That's the hazard the erstwhile Prime Minister couldn't afford. He had no choice but to start building his own group.

Jarosław Kaczyński was besides in a non-alternative situation. Morawiecki openly declared obedience to him and then began organizing his own facilities. If he didn't comply now, then he wouldn't quit after the election. As a result, in 2027, PiS would inactive function as 2 parties, even if it formally remained under 1 name. Kaczyński could only choose the best possible minute of division and effort to deprive Morawiecki people. The first task was successfully accomplished. The another is the opposite. Anyway, the divided became a fact.

What are the next scenarios?

We will learn this over a small over a year, but we will be able to formulate the first forecasts on the basis of the August polls. If the fresh Morawiecki group is placed in them clearly below the 5% electoral threshold, and the losses of the Kaczyński organization will be so tiny that the PiS poll results will inactive not appear in front of the one, the Morawiecki revolution will be considered ineffective. Like many akin rebellions before her.

However, if I were president of the Law and Justice, I would not number on specified developments. Throughout his career in business and politics Morawiecki could number on the support of his mentors. There's no indication they're gonna say no to him right now. Morawiecki can so number on kindness or at least average favour of mainstream media, which will sustain the media life of his political project.

The existence of a fresh political task opens a real bag of questions. Which groups of improvement Plus Morawiecki will take votes? How much can it get into the already heavy developed centre-right segment? Will the weakened Law and Justice proceed to face the Confederate and Crown, or will it effort to make tactical agreements with them? Finally, how will Tusk react? Will he treat Morawiecki as a possible partner and coalition player, or will he consider him a rival feeding on the voices of a centre electorate? Without knowing the answers to these questions, we are not able to rationally measure the likelihood of individual scenarios of developments.

Time will tell you who will win

Time will tell who lives. The momentary troubles of the Compradorian elite that govern us may mark the beginning of their end. But they don't have to. No 1 will turn power into the hands of Poles just due to the fact that he got bored or tired of her. Power, whether it's in a organization or in a country, is won, and it doesn't get. If we want to take control of our own state, we request to be aware of that.

Przemysław Piasta

photo profile of Fb M. Morawiecki

Think Poland, No. 31-32 (2-9.08.2026)