A divided in Law and Justice, a drop in polls and a president who is the only politician with a clear advantage of trust over distrust. This is what the Polish right looks like in the summertime of 2026. Her fresh arrangement is commented by prof. Andrzej Nowak, historian and co-author of the book on Karol Nawrocki, according to which any voters support the president today, but will not return to the erstwhile camp of power. Leadership on the full right is at stake before the parliamentary elections in 2027.
Historian reads fresh power
Prof. Andrzej Nowak spoke about the situation on the right in an interview with Virtual Poland, published on 22 July. The conversation accompanies the premiere of the book "Where Karol Nawrocki came from", which the historian co-created with the president. Nowak does not hide sympathy for the head of state, but his diagnosis is cool. As he stated, "there are many voters who support Karol Nawrocki but will not return to PiS". According to the researcher, the right is much wider present than 1 party, and its divisions go deeper than the management camp would want. Historians do not quit the anticipation of change. “Politics never say “never”. This is what past teaches," he noted.
Surveys confirm drain
Historian diagnosis can be seen in numbers. In the United Surveys survey for Virtual Poland from mid-July, the PiS gained 23 percent of support, by more than a point little than a period earlier. She ran the Civic Coalition with a score of nearly 29 percent, besides a succession. But both Confederate formations grew. The Confederation of Freedom and independency recorded 15.7 percent, the highest jump in the full rate, and the Confederation of the Polish Crown Grzegorz Braun approached 10 percent. The position of the president himself looks separate. He was trusted by 55 percent of the respondents in the July CBOS trust ranking, not by 33 percent. Nawrocki was the only politician with specified a clear advantage and a leader whose ratings grew second period in a row.
The divided the PiS wanted to avoid
The background of these moods is the most serious division in the past of Jarosław Kaczyński's party. In mid-July, the Law and Justice authorities requested Members to sign a declaration of loyalty and break up with the association Mateusz Morawiecki "Development Plus". On July 24, the president announced that over 30 parliamentarians had not signed, which meant exclusion from the club. Morawiecki himself gave the number of departures above. "We are 40 MPs, Senator and 3 Euro-Parliamentary", said the erstwhile Prime Minister. Among the names were Michał Dworczyk, Piotr Müller and Szymon Szynkowski, a.k.a. Sęka. The effects go beyond 1 batch. Confederacy leader Krzysztof Bosak estimated that his group could "be the first force on the Polish right" within a month-two.
Nowak's call for reassurance
Prof. Nowak himself, though close to the president, gave a sharp assessment of the form in which right-wing politicians disperse. In a commentary on social media, the very separation of roads called the understandable, but common insults and innuendos as "a pathetic spectacle". Historian wrote that specified a spiral does not service Poland, for which the politicians who were arguing present declared concern only recently. He besides criticised any of the right-wing media, in his opinion bidding in extracting the strongest epithets from politicians. He called for everyone to halt while there was inactive time.
An open question about leadership
The image that emerges from these weeks is uncomfortable for the Kaczyński camp. The party, which over the years has united the right side, loses its MPs and voters, while at the same time watching the Confederacy grow and how the president formally standing above divisions is strengthened. Nowak's diagnosis comes down to a simple conclusion. The trust capital that Nawrocki built does not automatically translate into support for the Law and the right without 1 centre enters the pre-election year divided. The question remains, to which they will only answer the next months: will the president be able to build a new, wider camp, or will the dispute at the top of the right hand give the initiative of the ruling coalition?
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