The Law and Justice will not quit power so easily

Elections, elections and after the election. Paraphrased by the celebrated saying, it can be noted that loud electoral sound in Poland is slow falling and the first violin is starting to play facts again. The problem of creating a government, although confirmed by the words of the (former) opposition headed by KO president Donald Tuski establishing a coalition as KO, TD and Left Governments as the most likely script for creating a government that will take place at the first session of the Sejm, however, 1 can inactive feel a note of uncertainty and chances of not gaining a peculiar majority and consequently repeating the elections. However, assuming the script of creating a “great” coalition of 3 coalitions, it is worth looking at how the fresh opposition, or PiS, will behave, which will have a favorable president and another apolitical de jure offices (including TK and NBP)

Suspected ABW action

The erstwhile ruling United Right over the last years of government had many problems. Among another things visa scandal is critical condition of the Polish economy. All of this translated into that Poles decided to bet on another squad in the last election. However, presently the PiS giving power seems to catch all the possibilities to hide “haki” on itself. The fact that the interior safety Agency has late placed an order for more than 50 shredders is an issue for itself. Is it due to the fact that the erstwhile government has something to hide? We'll most likely never know.

Debt in September

Another suspicious issue is the abrupt increase in debt in September just before the parliamentary elections. According to the Ministry of Finance, “The increase in debt since the beginning of 2023 has been mainly a result: the net borrowing needs of the state budget (+36.7 billion PLN), mainly as a consequence of the state budget deficit of PLN 20.9 billion, the consolidation of liquidity management (+17.7 billion PLN) and the balance of loans granted (+5.3 billion PLN)” It looks like the PiS is trying to “take” the last money from the budget and make the most of it. What were they spent on? We might find out shortly enough.

Coalition with PSL

The last possible rescue for PiSu is the most conservative part of the fresh coalition, the Polish People's Party. It is presently heard from unofficial sources that president Kosianiak Kamysz is offered the highest positions (including the Prime Minister's portfolio) and even support in the 2025 presidential election for the Law and Justice. And the PSL itself offers half the ministries in the fresh government. Although the position of the PSL is clear so far and they cut off any anticipation of giving a 3rd word of the Law and Justice, it is worth observing the situation and expecting whether, at any point, the four-year regulation of the Polish Law and Justice will not bet on the Law and Justice and not on the KO and the Left. We'll be watching this for the next 4 years.

Source:

– ABW

– Debt

– Unofficial information on coalition talks

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