PiS and KO together to support developers (credit 0%)

politiks.pl 1 year ago

Unwritten coalition of PiS and KO in supporting developers (Opinion)

The credit situation of 0% (officially #onstart credit) sparks a fierce discussion among netizens. Unfortunately, there is no discussion among the political elite, and it can be said that the doorknob has already fallen. It is unusual that the largest opposition organization (i.e., PiS) does not take any glove thrown by KO and does not discredit this program in any way, or even declares its support! A situation where almost all parties in parliament agree on a given subject can truly be amazing erstwhile in another cases parties aggressively attack each another and declare each another as full opposition. Informal silence in this case may indicate that the largest Polish parties benefit from supporting laws prepared jointly with the improvement lobby. In this opinion, we will effort to look at the situation on the housing marketplace in Poland since prices began to emergence drastically and how this situation affects the full society and why the political class is so keen to support programmes of this kind.

The thought of supporting borrowers

When in 2021 and 2022 NBP began to rise interest rates in a jump, Polish households were not ready for this. Suddenly, the mention rate from the surrounding zero percent increased to over 6, and the KNF further tightened the debt conditions. This led to the fact that suddenly, in the warm housing marketplace in Poland, developers saw the ghost of bessa. The situation of this kind has been unprecedented on the Polish marketplace since 2017 since prices began to increase significantly. In consequence to these marketplace conditions, developers sent a letter to the government asking for the support of borrowers and increased demand, threatening the disaster of the full construction industry. Quoting direct source: “The Polish real property marketplace is on the verge of a crisis not recorded since 2008.
Urgent measures should be put in place to reduce the declines in starting
housing investments. deficiency of government intervention can lead to loss
jobs by 100,000 employees of companies straight related to
construction of fresh buildings, as well as marketplace related industries
residential. ” And developers themselves gave a prescription to fix the situation:

The proposal of the Polish Association of Developers on how to improve the situation (it is interesting to propose a debt with a fixed rate of 2%, which was introduced in this way), most likely this text was created in November 2021, which is good months before the announcement of the Safe Credit 2%

Effect of the Credit 2%

The forthcoming parliamentary elections and the most likely open letter given above led to the fact that then Minister Waldemar Buda introduced the already celebrated Safe Credit 2%. As expected, specified a throw of money worked demandably and increased housing prices and developer income. Of course, this did not improve the availability of housing for young people or families and made it difficult. The program itself surpassed further intellectual valuations of square metro and led to unprecedented increases of 20-30% in the largest Polish cities. Most people started throwing themselves at “anything” to just benefit from the program. The marketplace suffered request shock and valuations were severely affected by central government intervention.

The visible increase in housing prices on the example of Warsaw, erstwhile the 2% debt was announced, had already begun speculation and price rally.

Credit announcement 0%

Donald Tusk preparing for a future win in the 2023 parliamentary election announced as 1 of “100 Concrete for the first 100 days of government” the already-known Credit 0%. Although the thought itself was mostly met with criticism, the opposition at the time went into denial and wrote out details of the program. Interestingly, the programme itself in the announcement was much more “thought-out”. It was only intended to cover housing on the primary marketplace and the flat would cost up to PLN 900 thousand.

Credit assumptions 0% from the authoritative website https://credit0%.info/ which are very different from that proposed by MRiT

Credit Proposal #onstart

The Ministry of improvement and Technology covered by Krzysztof Hetman, a fewer days after the change of power announced the thought of implementing the Credit 0%. But it was a large surprise to see what the program looked like. alternatively of promising modest loans for fresh housing, the program turned out to be a 2% credit “on steroids”. There is no point in quoting the details of the full program here due to the fact that you can read about it in previous columnBut in short, families with 3 children will be able to take credit for over a million zlotys, even if they already own an apartment! It is interesting, due to the fact that the erstwhile credit 2% aimed mainly at smaller apartments and was adapted for singles (also by limiting PLN 800 thousand), while the debt 0% is clearly aimed at multi-children families and the most costly and largest properties. This may be amazing due to the fact that his name and announcements led to the fact that he was directed to a group of adults and just moving distant from his parents. In today's programme proposal it is alternatively guided “to start” but the retirement career of the richest multi-children families. Most likely, if it is not rejected, or in a crucial way “weaned” it will lead to an even greater increase in housing prices and will make 1 of the most costly properties in Europe from the Polish market.

For example, the prices of a square metre flat in Gdańsk have already overtaken Dutch Rotterdam, with more than 2 times lower salaries

Hope to suspend the program

The program has been very hostile among average citizens. No 1 believes that supporting the request side “magically” will increase the number of housing and will lead to improved availability. Unfortunately, the Ministry presently remains deaf to the voices of net users and intends to introduce the program in full. The society is increasingly annoyed by the swelling margins of developers and the massive acquisition of housing by investors. He loses the full country due to the fact that alternatively of developing, young people gotta pursuit distant prices of apartments. However, the planet in the tunnel is the Left, Poland 2050 and the Confederacy, which announce opposition to this program. The Left mentioned late that it was able to support the task if Coalition through their task to build apartments for rent, but from the Left itself there are various conflicting signals. This shows that politicians should be constantly exposed to their hypocrisy and that they should “at least” encourage the program to have any real limitations, specified as a limit of 120% of the cost of reproduction. This will lead to the fact that the programme will not consequence in a steep emergence in prices and it is possible that it would even work positively on the housing market. However, there is simply a request for real discussion and clear resistance. So if you think this program is harmful and needs a change, Make that opinion available.

Crazy valuations of Polish developers on the stock marketplace after the announcement of Credit 2% and 0% (based on WIG-NRCHOM index) Source: banker.pl