There was a time, somewhere around 2015, erstwhile the legendary word "genial strategist" had its application. It is hard to be objective, without admitting the right that Kaczyński 2015 played brilliantly, rather recalling these volleys of laughter, besides on the rightWhen the chief of the Law and Justice presented Andrzej Duda as a presidential candidate. Then there was a triumph in the parliamentary elections, which the PiS owes to the defeats of the SLD and Korwin-Mikke, and they lacked a fewer ferries to get to the Sejm and completely change the arrangement of forces.
The first word of the PiS looked different, but the interior game itself was again Kaczyński's spectacular success, which after 4 years of government increased the party's election consequence to a cosmic level of 43.6%, with an earlier 37.5%. Under completely different political conditions, PiS besides won a second word for Andrzej Duda, and the fight took place only on 1 rule “all by one”. From a superb strategy and a superb strategist after 2020, 1 can and must laugh, but until then, in national politics, the “chief” did what he wanted with opposition “strategs”. In global politics, it looked much worse or alternatively not at all and Kaczyński's play will no longer master, especially since he never displayed specified talents. So many memories, it's time to summarize the present.
Is the absence of attacks on the Confederacy on the part of the Law and Justices a return to a superb strategy, as read here and there? In answer to this question, I ask you to be serious, due to the fact that this level of gag is not only not funny, but is embarrassing. We are dealing with a “obvious obvious” which in capital letters is recorded in the interior PiS polls. If the Confederate picks up the electorate exclusively PO and Holownia, then the PiS would gotta fall on his head to interfere in this game. At this stage, Novgorodka has nothing to do but to keep his fingers crossed, to Mentzen and Bosak. Here, there is no request to dwell on the strategy, due to the fact that things have worked out perfectly for the Law and Justice and badly for the top enemies of the Law and Justice, which they have worked hard for. Another question is worth asking: how long will the growth of the Confederacy be beneficial to the Law and Justice? This time the question is serious, this and the answer must be ambitious.
In my eye there are 2 thresholds, the first very easy to specify and refers to the losses of the Law and Justice. erstwhile the Confederacy starts picking up PiS votes, the confrontation is inevitable. Whether this happens is simply a separate issue, but if it does happen, the PiS will gotta respond and much wiser than the PO reacts with TVN, recklessly pounding in Mentzen. The second threshold is to quote the Confederate above 15%, which seems unrealistic, but can not be ruled out, after all, Tusk drives around Poland all the time and hard on specified a consequence as he did.
Among many of Kaczyński's favourites is this: "Nothing to the right of me." The Confederation with the support of 10% and the Confederation with the support of 16% are completely different Confederations. In the first variant of the PiS, it does not request to feel threatened, due to the fact that there is no chance of rebounding the part of the electorate, which is highly liberal economically and highly national on the another hand. An alternate option is already a direct threat to the PiS in the form of not tiny but medium-sized right-wing party.
Returning to a superb strategy, it needs to be precisely placed in a circumstantial context. As long as the Confederates rob PO and HolovniaThere's nothing to add. How much of the superb strategy we will find out only erstwhile the Confederacy starts to plunder the Law and Justice and/or to grow on record, which will naturally be political competition for the Law and Justice.
