This book is simply a peculiar textbook on geopolitics and global relations. With simple historical and contemporary examples, it shows the rules of geopolitical competitions, including hybrid wars and conflicts. The co-authors of this collective work together work present here these rules of geopolitics, economics and human nature, which, according to them, let us to better realize the planet around us, events taking place and frequently incomprehensible, "illogical" decisions of leaders.
Mr. Piotr Plebaniak thanks for making the passage available for publication. We encourage you to read the full book.
The book covered by the press patronage of the Week of civilian Affairs.
Malacka
The most populous part of the earth on the brink of war and prosperity
South China Sea: Geographical resources and assets
Even a decade before the outbreak of planet War II, the sea was only a fishery for fishermen from adjacent states. Its importance for planet trade was close to zero.
Today, 30 percent of global trade flows through the Malakka Strait and the South China Sea. This is 40 percent of products manufactured in Japan and 2 thirds of Chinese exports shipped by sea.
As regards key natural materials, hydrocarbons, 15 million barrels of oil and 1 3rd of the world’s LNG trade are transported there per day. China imports about 75–80 percent of the oil consumed. That's 80 percent going through this area.
In addition, this area is the place to get 10 percent of the world's catch of fish. Virtually all South-East Asia feeds on seafood. These sea creatures become the foundation of food security, a strategical commodity. The surrounding countries are almost constantly arguing over fisheries for their fishing fleets. The outbreak of any conflict in this area will translate into a catastrophic malfunction not only for the region but besides for the full world.
The conflict over control of the South China Sea is simply a highly complex matter. A prominent Singaporean diplomat Tommy Koh, 1 of the co-creators and negotiators of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, stated that the dispute was about law, power, resources and history.
Countries adjacent territorially to the South China Sea basin make their claims and counter-claims under the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. China argues that the line of 9 lines is simply a state border and covers a maritime area under ‘historical claims’ justified by ‘the usual law of discovery and seizure of the site and historical rights’.
China's protestors answer that global law does not recognise that specified a form of ‘seat’ could be the basis for jurisdiction over the waters. They claim that China would gotta exercise real power over the South China Sea for a long and uninterrupted time, in a "commonly known" manner. This is what the Chinese are trying to accomplish by building artificial atolls and then military infrastructure.
The dispute parties conduct it in many fields, including historical narratives.
One of the assets of Filipino is the map drawn up by the Jesuit Fr Faura in 1734. The Scarborough lair is called the Indigenous Word for the Philippines Tagal language.
ONLY economical ZONE
The concept of an exclusive economical region has appeared in the abovementioned Convention on the Law of the Sea. This region reaches beyond the territorial waters (usually about 12 miles from the shoreline). The exclusive economical region extends to a radius of 370.4 km from the border of the land territory of the country concerned.
Curiosity: The Convention of the Law of the Sea besides allows the continental shelf to be ruled over up to 648 km from the shoreline. Portugal has submitted a pending request for specified an extension. If he is considered positively, Portugal's sovereign regulation will lead to a immense condition of the east Atlantic – thanks to the Portuguese ownership of the archipelago of the Azores and the island of Madeira (p. 247).
In most cases, the usage of the region is limited to economical rights, i.e. fishing and extraction of natural materials. The Chinese side extends this restriction. They claim to have the right to control maritime traffic. And that is the key component in confronting the United States.
Meanwhile, many incidents of force movements between the parties to the dispute happen constantly.
One of them, in 2012, happened 123 nautical miles off the coast of the Philippines. China took control of the Scarborough shoal and closed it for Philippine shipping. The Filipinos, for deficiency of military consequence ability, challenged the line of 9 lines before the global Court in The Hague. After 4 years, the tribunal ruled in favour of the Philippines.
Another incidental was the 1 active in the USNS Impeccable. The incidental occurred at a large distance outside China's territorial waters (12 nautical miles), but inactive within the exclusive economical zone. For the United States, these were open waters, while within China's knowing the ship was found in Chinese waters, and so he was ordered to leave. In the apogee of the incident, the U.S. ship had to give back the full time to avoid a collision.
By the way, the U.S. Navy conducts regular operations called FONOP (Freedom of Navigation Operation), which – I will let myself a humorous speech – trust on the annoyance of the Chinese side as far as it comes from the presence in accordance with the letter of the Maritime Rights Convention.
In the Vietnam incidental on May 2, 2014, a fleet of powerful tugboats moved a large Chinese HD-981 drilling rig to 120 miles east of Vietnam and 180 miles south of the Chinese island of Hainan. It was 5 nautical miles south beyond the twelve-mile strip of coastal waters of the island of Tri Tôn (chin. Zhongjian Dao 中建岛). This island is under Chinese jurisdiction, but the Vietnamese protestors pointed out that the island is only a pile of sand above the sea surface (satellite photos show modest vegetation and respective concrete military facilities), so according to the Convention the site of Chinese drilling is located in the Vietnamese economical zone. China claimed that the drilling area is their integral territory.
The Chinese platform was at the time a technological miracle, costing $1 billion in 2011. She was capable of drilling under the bottom to a depth of up to 3,000 metres. It was accompanied by as many as eighty another vessels and respective aircraft. The Vietnamese were amazed by this event, but managed to deploy more than 30 ships in emergency mode.
Another time, in July 2019, Russian Rosnieft, in cooperation with the Vietnamese state-owned oil company, led wells in an area that Vietnam considered its exclusive economical zone. At the site of drilling, Chinese ships abruptly appeared to carry out continuous maneuvers around the area occupied by the Vietnamese side. Chinese units only sailed after Vietnamese drilling was completed.
The Chinese claimed that the disputed area belonged to China's exclusive economical zone. During the diplomatic “discipline”, China's defence minister proclaimed that China would not let them to be taken distant even a part of territory that our ancestors had left us.” Nguyễn Phú Trọng, president of Vietnam, called for restraint, stating that Vietnam would besides "never give way" in its sovereignty.
Spratly Islands and "nine lines"
These “islands” occupy an area about 300 kilometres in diameter. The islands were spotted by British captain Spratly in 1843. This is about a 100 rocks and reefs, or "non-territorial objects" – this clever word comes from the judgement of the Court of Arbitration in The Hague.
The islands first became the subject of geopolitical competitions in 1933. It was then that the captain of the French Navy Georges Meesemaecker sailed around the South China Sea and visited 9 islands and island groups, including Spratly, to officially incorporate them into the French Empire. The action was dictated by the request to prejudice akin actions of abroad powers – at that time the French thought mainly of Japan.
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The movement, unexpectedly, was controlled by the Chinese. In the young Republic of China, the French act was referred to as "the incidental of 9 islands". For deficiency of military capabilities, the Chinese launched propaganda activities in the form of map propagation, on which the ancient Chinese sea areas were marked. In 1936, the geographer-patriot Bai Meichu published an atlas in which he outlined the celebrated "nine lines", which included an area of the interior of the sea facing Malakka.
The Chinese geographer stated what is the main communicative of the PRC today: the area is the place of life of Chinese fishermen, and thus administratively belongs to China. Both the authorities of the Republic of China and the PRC maintained the narrative. In 2013, in Chinese narrative, the map of the 1930s was declared "deeply entrenched in the hearts and minds of the Chinese"—of course, along with another archipelago, the Paracel islands.
On the individual islands of Spratly, there are tiny military casts of six states – China and 5 participants in the dispute, including the Republic of China in Taiwan. Interestingly, Taipei takes the Beijing side against the another countries at the nine-line line.
Chinese dilemma
80 percent of energy resources and 40 percent of China's trade flow through the South China Sea. If you enter a higher level of the escalation ladder, the gameplay will become a fascinating subject of survey for those whose money and life will not be at stake in it.
While the Chinese fleet has a crushing advantage in confronting the fleets of the Malakki region, it is not about destroying the opponent, but about having the right to block and open the culvert through the strait. This is why Indonesia and Malaysia are beyond the scope of China's military influence and control Malacka. Otherwise, China must have their consent, and to keep Malakka expensive. China is doing everything they can to remove possible influences and, to put it plainly, blackmail. 1 solution is the fresh pipeline from Kyaukpyu in Myanmar to China. He bypasses Malakka and crowds oil right into Kunming, China.
GEOPOLITICAL ROE: HOW TO movie TRADE? doctrine OF THE MINIMUMISATION OF EFFICIENCY
In 1 episode of enforcement of sanctions imposed on Iran in 2022, Americans pumped oil out of an Iranian tanker in the Aegean sea. In response, Iran stopped Greek ships in the Ormuz Strait. There was a dangerous escalation. The second snapshot is the issue of trade traffic to the Ukrainian port in Odessa in the first months of the war of 2022.
The question which military and geopolitical planners ask, and on the another hand shipowners and insurers, is: How to block traffic through the straits or on a given watershed? In the context of China, it would be crucial to block the selective area of the Malakka Strait. In 1 of his statements, Dr. Bartosiak mentioned shelling and physical harm to container ships, which was expected to have the value of keeping shipowners outside the danger zone.
It turns out that nothing so easy to delegate work does not request to be introduced to the game. In the case of ships arriving for grain to Odessa, their voyages were suspended without a single shot. The decision-making mechanics was very simple: insurers impose horned rates or refuse to insure ships entering war zones. On the margins, as of January 1, 2023, Ukrainian and Russian shipowners lost their ability to insure their ships in war zones, which seriously undermines and complicates their functioning.
In the event of a confrontation in the Malakka area, the situation will become much more complicated. Any selective blockade of the US Navy for deliveries to China will undermine the economical functioning of the full region.
This blockade would be triggered in the event of China's initiating preparations or the invasion of Taiwan itself. There is another origin to this galimatiasu: goods on a floating ship can change ownership and destination port respective times – this is everyday in the global trading system. Washington would so face a method problem and at the same time a dilemma: how not to conflict with local allies and at the same time have the chance to influence Beijing's decisions. Now, at the phase of deterrence and already at the time of the actual confrontation.
SINGAPUR — WITHOUT IDEOLOGY TOTALITARY
Singapore is simply a city-state whose founders and designers have devoted individual freedoms to prosperity. utilizing the central position and social and political stability, they created a model trading hub, among others, to remove obstacles to business. It is simply a “confucian” function model for countries throughout the region.
The strategical location at the point of contact of the Pacific and Indian Ocean has always made Singapore an perfect starting point for force projection. The British naval base was not only a symbol of imperial power, but the most crucial pillar in the region. After the war, Singapore suffered deep social and political problems, including partisan fights. For a short period he was part of Malaysia, but was expelled from it and became an independent entity on 9 August 1965.
"The Founder's Father" but besides the architect of Singapore's success is Lee Kuan Yew, who was besides Prime Minister of the country from 1959 to 1990. During his reign, a strategy for the improvement of modern technology and innovation was initiated, making Singapore, in the neighbourhood of little developed neighbours, rapidly becoming a transport, aviation and technology hub. In the second area, the effort to launch semiconductor production failed due to utmost competitive conditions in the industry. Given the natural advantage of Singapore's position, it will prosper whether the global Pax Americana strategy continues or failsA breakdown.
