- The stormy word of office of the Austrian Parliament, which abounded in changes in government, loud scandals and natural disasters, is almost over. In the next Sunday, 29 September 2024, parliamentary elections will be held in Austria, after which, it seems almost certain, the current, rather hard government coalition between the chadeks, turning increasingly to the right, and proclimatic and progressive greens will not be restored.
- The FPÖ has been at the forefront of the polls for little than 2 years, a organization openly sympathetic with the Kremlin, whose voters rapidly forgave the scandals of its fresh regulation from 2017 to 2019. However, the fewer percent advantage of FPÖ over the ruling ÖVP was at the last consecutive point before the election, erstwhile Austria hit the “flood of the millennium” – the largest since at least 2002, and according to more historical estimates even since the 16th century.
- Therefore, to the very end, it will not be known who will win the election – whether the right-wing populists from FPÖ or Chadeci from ÖVP, and who will yet make a government coalition and lead the government. There are at least 2 utmost different scenarios: the right- populist coalition of FPÖ-ÖVP or so-called. Groko, or return to the old ÖVP coalition with social democrats from SPÖ with the possible support of liberal NEOS.
29 September 2024. The Austrians will elect their fresh parliamentarians for a five-year term. Austria has a bi-liberary parliament consisting of 183-member National Council (Nationalrat), elected in the general election, and 60-member national Council (Bundesrat), consisting of only representatives of the national states elected by the Land Parliaments. Elections to the National Council shall be carried out on the basis of proportional coordination while maintaining the 4% electoral threshold.
You finish your run in the shadow of the flood
Since the last parliamentary election in autumn 2019. Austria was governed by the coalition of ÖVP and the Greens (also called turquoise-green from the colours of coalition parties). The first head of the government of this coalition was Sebastian Kurz, the leader of the chadeks, sometimes referred to as “Wunderwuzzi” – a miracle kid of Austrian politics – due to his young age (31 years at the time of taking the position of head of government). After only a year and a half, in October 2021, Kurz again said goodbye to the Chancellor's position (his erstwhile office in 2017-2019 besides ended prematurely) as a consequence of another scandal in the power camp. This time, the reason for the failure of office were allegations of utilizing government funds to pay advertising in 1 of the newspapers in exchange for affirmative publications about Kurz. Right after Kurz's forced public resignation as interim chancellor was A professional diplomat and head of the MFA Alexander Schallenberg, after which Karl Nehammer yet reached after the head of the ÖVP and the government, leading the chadeks to the next election.
Of the events of the passing term, it is worth noting that Nehammer was The first EU leader to go to Moscow to meet Putin after Russian aggression against Ukraine, so as the Chancellor himself admits, “to face him with war crimes committed by the Russian army in Ukraine”.
Due to Russia's readiness for peace talks with Ukraine, signalled in early September by Vladimir Putin, Nehammer proposed Vienna, the seat of many global organizations, as a place of negotiation. It besides seems to be an effort to improve Austria's image in the eyes of Western partners after April. scandal with the participation of an Austrian civilian counterintelligence officer to supply Russian services with classified information, including the neighbouring Germany.
In addition to geopolitical turbulence caused by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the last term, especially in its first phase, was marked by a global coronavirus pandemic. At the beginning of the fight against COVID-19, the coalition of ÖVP and the Greens enjoyed large popularity, which was mostly the consequence of the population gathering around the flag in the face of danger, and thus the phenomenon besides observed in many another countries at the same time. However, the ratings of the ruling parties began to fall markedly at the time erstwhile the government announced the unpopular Kurz decision introducing a vaccination work against COVID-19. Due to the considerable social polarisation surrounding this issue and many protests of opponents of mandatory vaccination, the government yet He's out. from this idea.
The last five-year-old besides dealt with the crisis of surviving costs, due to the drastic increase in inflation as a consequence of pandemics and broken supply chains, and Russia's aggression against Ukraine and the energy marketplace turmoil (Austria inactive remains the country most dependent on Russian gas in the European Union). In the context of advanced food prices, large outrage caused Chancellor Nehammer's message that low income families should feed their children with McDonald's burgers.
The topics that have not disappeared from the Austrian policy agenda for at least 30 years are migration and ways to deal with the influx of refugees. The long-standing leader of FPÖ Jörg Haider, who died in a car accident in 2008, on his way back from the gay club in Klagenfurt, had a very crucial part in bringing this subject into political mainstream and tightening rhetoric towards migrants. His successors, Heinz-Christian Strache and Herbert Kickl, consistently proceed to exposure these issues in subsequent election campaigns. In view of the social concerns fueled by the subsequent European migration crisis, the main political parties of Austria – FPÖ, ÖVP, SPÖ, Greens and NEOS – stopped disagree importantly in the approach to border protection, the tightening of asylum law or the forms of integration of foreigners already present in Austria. In the ongoing election run leading in FPÖ polls, he demands that the “sustainment chaos” be stopped, following a hard Australian migration policy, demanding Among another things, setting a limit on asylum applications accepted and allowing “push-backs” at borders.
The last strong chord of the election run was “the flood of the millennium” (Jahrtausendhochwasser), which visited Central Europe in mid-September, causing peculiarly severe harm to Lower Austria. This was a unique chance for the rulers to finish the run repair its image in the eyes of Austrians as managers in a crisis. On the 1 hand, most of the political class temporarily suspended run activities, and on the another hand quite a few additional air time was given to Chancellor Nehammer, who, as a erstwhile Home Secretary, could usage this situation to appear as an efficient coordinator of the activities of uniformed services and troops in flooded areas. Delicate, about 2% of the polling reflections were besides noted by the co-ordinating Greens, mainly due to their climate agenda, which in the face of natural disaster, at least temporarily, gained importance.
Tough fight for first place
As the last pre-election points out pollsAfter the 29 September elections, the following parties will enter the fresh Austrian National Council:
- Freedom organization of Austria (FPÖ) – a right-wing populist group with a strong anti-EU profile, representing the alleged 3rd camp in Austria (Drittes Lager, in opposition to the another 2 main parties: SPÖ and ÖVP). The nationalist and anti-immigrant course maintained by FPÖ was set in the late 1980s and 1990s by the longtime Prime Minister of Carinthia Jörg Haider, recognised as the precursor of European right-wing populism. The organization has for years maintained close ties with representatives of the Russian Federation, which resulted in the signing of a cooperation agreement with Putinsk 1 Russia in December 2016. The FPÖ besides has a faction of German nationalists, represented among others by Euro MP Harald Vilimsky, who culturally I feel German. The current leader of FPÖ and candidate for Chancellor is erstwhile Home Secretary Herbert Kickl, who I want to to become the chancellor of the people (Volkskanzler) and demands that Europe be made a fortress (Festung Europa) in the face of a migration crisis (in polls 26-28%).
- Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) – a conventional Chadetic group, which in the last decade has increasingly begun to draw from the repertoire typical of right-popular groups. Under the leadership of erstwhile Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, the organization underwent rebranding to “new ÖVP” and changed organization colors from black to turquoise. In the upcoming elections, the pitzenandidat of the chadeks and the candidate for head of government is current organization leader and Chancellor Karl Nehammer (23-26%).
- Social Democratic organization of Austria (SPÖ) – the oldest inactive existing organization in Austria (founded in 1889) with a conventional European centreleft profile. 1 of the 2 dominant political forces in the post-war past of the country (besides the ÖVP), she last held power in 2007-2017 under the alleged Groko, or large coalition with chadeks. The leader of this party, Bruno Kreisky, who held the office of Chancellor from 1970 to 1983, had a crucial influence on the improvement of the SPÖ, as well as European Social Democracy. The current president of the group is Andreas “Andi” Babler, mayor of Traiskirchen who himself He called of his time “a Marxist” while journalists show it present alternatively as a “left-wing populist” (20-21%).
- Greens (Grüne) is simply a conventional group of left-wing environmental movement that advocates, among others, ecosocial taxation reform. In the last 5 years, it has been the first time that it has participated in the exercise of national authority. The current leader of the organization and the vice Chancellor of her arm is Werner Kogler. From the Greens besides comes president Alexander van der Bellen (8-10 %).
- New Austria and the Liberal Forum (NEOS) is simply a pro-European liberal center organization that had the smallest faction (only 15 deputies) in the National Council passing its word of office. This group, led by Beata Meinl-Reisinger, underlines its commitment to the thought of European integration, in favour of a national model of the European Union. In addition, NEOS calls for increased efforts to combat climate change, taxation cuts and the introduction of elements of direct democracy (8-10 %).
- Beer Party (Bierpartei) – a satirical group with a left-liberal profile founded by musician Marco Pogo (who in fact is called Dominik Wlazny). The organization was famous, among others, for its support for free beer deliveries to Austrian houses or for the construction of a “beer font” in Vienna (3-5%).
Under the 4% electoral threshold, most likely, The Communist organization of Austria (KPÖ), 1 of the oldest parties of this kind in the world, and List of Madeleine Petrovic, a group of erstwhile Greens Politicians with an anti-vaccine profile.
An election winner outside the future government?
The basic post-election scenario, supported by all 4th Austrian, is the right-wing ÖVP-FPÖ coalition. Chadek leader and current Chancellor Nehammer exclude Granted, the creation of a common government involving FPÖ Herbert Kickle (whose specifies as a “right-wing extremist”, but allows a coalition to be established with his party. It is worth noting that the coalition of these parties already ruled the country twice (2000-2006 and 2017-2019), each time leaving a distaste associated with corruption scandals and failed staff decisions. As far as casting the post of Chancellor after the upcoming elections is concerned, Nehammer and Kickl enjoy the same support from Austrians (24%) each.
Alternatively, the erstwhile “large coalition” between ÖVP and SPÖ (which co-hosted Austria by a vast majority of the post-war period) could be re-established, but these parties may request a 3rd group to form a majority in the National Council. Liberals from NEOS would be a natural partner, as ÖVP no longer wants to co-ordinate with the Greens, among others, after their head of the Leonore Gewessler climate hotel voted In June of this year, behind the EU Natural Resources Recovery Law against the government's authoritative position. The formation of the ÖVP-SPÖ-NEOS coalition would be an effort to make a cordon around the winning FPÖ party, and for the Liberals the first chance to prove themselves—like German FDP colleagues—in a hard three-party government coalition.
Although, as we can see, the FPÖ's coming to power is far from being foregone, the very possible of Kickl's reaching out to the openly inspiring Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, the Chancellor's seat raises concerns about the future of the Austrian regulation of law and the coherence of EU policy towards Russia.
While the dismantling of the Austrian regulation of law, in the form of Hungarian, seems inactive unrealistic in the coming years, it should be remembered that already during erstwhile ÖVP-FPÖ governments from 2017 to 2019, freedomists, among others, attacked powerfully the media, especially those inconsistent with their transmission, Threatening For example, the expulsion of abroad correspondents from the public tv ORF, who were to study on the 2018 elections in Hungary on a biased basis. At the time FPÖ It's famous. besides an initiative to take Austrian citizenship distant from people of Turkish origin, which was yet challenged by the Austrian Constitutional Court.
In opposition, FPÖ has repeatedly opposed the EU sanctions imposed on Russia after the attack on Ukraine, pointing to losses suffered by the Austrian economy. For example, the destiny of Karin Kneissl, the erstwhile head of Austrian diplomacy from 2017 to 2019, which inactive in the course of office, is evidenced by FPÖ's suspicious approach to Russia. invited Vladimir Putin for her wedding and then became a commentator of Russian propaganda tv RT and left permanently for Russia. Should the FPÖ re-enter power, this time as a larger coalition partner, the portfolio of the head of the MFA would most likely fall to ÖVP, which could at least mitigate the influence of freedomists on abroad policy.
