The peculiar military operation in Ukraine is definitely coming to an end. Although Russia has not conducted this conflict in a full-scale manner – (for 2 years, this conflict is truly a series of tiny clashes scattered on the front nearly 2,000 km long) – the Ukrainian state is coming out of the fight completely devastated.
The population in Ukraine fell by nearly 10 million people, mostly as a consequence of emigration, but increasingly besides as a consequence of war losses which are huge. The key infrastructure – power plants, waterworks, roads, gas pipelines, ports, fuel bases and railway stations – is devastated. In the state of full agony is the economy of the country – forced to operate in war mode beyond its forces. The country's tremendous debt of US$150 billion, which is over 100% of GDP, is no longer possible to bear by the rapidly shrinking population of Ukraine. Ukraine is undoubtedly facing a threat of full insolvency, which may consequence in the inability of the State to supply basic benefits to pensioners and public administration. On the another hand, the alleged "international society" no longer has the strength and resources to place them in Ukraine. The next tranches of souvenirs and donations are decreasing. Forced by the U.S. to fund an unwanted war – Europe – has had adequate too. The continent demands its politicians to bring peace as rapidly as possible.
Army and Service
The only real forces, powerful forces that keep the decaying state structures Ukraine is an army and peculiar services that have managed to mostly subordinate all aspects of social life and the economy. Now Ukraine is undoubtedly a totalitarian regime. Power structures are now subject to everything from education, media and wellness care to the economy and industry. Without this over-extensive strength structure – the state would not have survived even a month. Only a circumstantial dictatorship and simple physical force forces the continuation of administration and surviving forms of the oligarchy economy. The large steppe military camp has taken over the full state and, to survive, forces blind obedience to citizens. And as long as the Ukrainian army continues – the structures of the state will shortly spread out.
Ukraine presently has the second Russian army in Europe. This army of about 880 1000 soldiers is nearly 9 times larger than Polish, equipped with battles and acquainted with the modern battlefield, perfectly equipped with modern method means and well trained. Of course – he gives up the first army in Europe – the Russian army, but in relation to the remainder of Europe he seems to have a overwhelming advantage in most military aspects.
Undoubtedly, Ukrainian ammia in its current form is simply a deadly threat to neighbours, i.e. the countries of Central Europe, including Poland. Therefore, the Polish services should constantly monitor the threat from this direction. It besides seems that 1 of the key tasks facing Polish politicians (what is not said) should be the maximum weakening of Ukrainian militarism, which is presently the main threat to the existence of the Polish state. It is not possible to announcement that Ukraine, despite its fake friendship, has territorial objections to Poland and formally claims the right to the Polish lands as far as Sanu (Zakerson).
Another crucial enmity is the fact that the relics of the Ukrainian nationalism are cultivated in Ukraine, which considers Poles to be the most crucial enemies of the Ukrainian people. It justifies the biological extermination of the Polish population both during planet War II and today. How are we expected to realize the erection of fresh monuments – murderers of Poles – Bandera and Szuchewycz in Ukraine? Why is the glorification of executioners of Polish women and children, as not a modern explanation, that these actions were good and desirable for Ukraine? These scandalous monuments and commemorations are a clear message by contemporary Ukrainians that it is in Poles that they see the main enemies of their country. We should realize the actual attitude of the Ukrainians and learn from it.
The second component of the Ukrainian state is the ruthless peculiar services – especially SBU and HUR. Trained and directed by the Anglo-Saxons are the main tool for controlling society. It is no secret that these services have advanced intelligence and sabotage activities in neighbouring countries. In addition to Russia, the main area of activity of these services is Poland – the most crucial material-logistic base of the Ukrainian army fighting in Donbasa.
Ukrainians in our country control and safe the main communication routes from Europe to Ukraine. They besides exert tremendous force on Polish services, administrations and media. Many actions of the Polish government and administration – especially after February 24, 2022 are clearly marked by Ukrainian diversionary and agentural actions. There is besides no uncertainty that the powerfully located Ukrainian agent in Poland besides has a immense influence on Polish legislative authorities. Tens of unusual laws rapidly adopted by the Polish Sejm were undoubtedly inspired in Kiev. They served the exclusive Ukrainian state and usually hit the fundamental economical interests of Poles. due to the fact that how else to explain the adoption of about six million migrants from Ukraine without medical examinations and money, although the country had a covid sanitary regime? Why and who passed laws discriminating Poles in public wellness institutions and favouring non-paying Ukrainian citizens? Why did Ukrainians receive subsidies for housing and pension rights alternatively than another nationalities surviving in Poland?
That's the tip of the iceberg.
More alarming are reports of Ukrainian intelligence utilizing key economical and financial assets of the country. Thousands of tons of Polish fuel donated to the Ukrainian mafia for symbolic gold for war, and in fact for looting under the pretext of aid; giving the best Polish weapon, for example, the KRAB cannon-haubic, or the armored cars Rosomak, which were sourced – not from stocks, but from the disarmament of so fewer Polish armored formations; “loans for eternal devotion” made by the Treasury and state-owned companies going into tens of billions of PLN – usually without informing the public and without discussing the legitimacy of these expenditures burdening the Polish state.
These and another actions are undoubtedly serious betrayals of Polish interests – this must be said again – they were ordained by Ukrainian peculiar services, which were mostly subordinate to the Polish state and administration. The most striking thing was that almost all acts of theft, robbery on an unprecedented scale of public property were covered by mainstream media stories about the necessity of sacrifices, due to the fact that as if Ukrainians were fighting Russia on Donbas for us.
Another method of covering acts of sabotage committed on Polish property was to incite screenings of hatred against Russia and Belarus and make an atmosphere of espionage in which anyone who has a different opinion and opposes the robbery of national assets for Ukraine is an automatic Russian agent and spy. Under the pretext of collecting “defensors” of Europe, Polish naivety and willingness to supply assistance were utilized – hundreds of false public collections were assumed for deadly weapons, cars, equipment – destroying the civilian aid strategy completely and condemning Polish sick and seniors to agony. After all, Polish sick children can wait – Ukrainian fighters have priority, the drone is more crucial – kamikaze to kill than medicine for Polish children with cancer...
These strong pressures and media blackmails caused extraordinary losses of public and individual assets of Poles. Poles, without being a organization to the conflict on Donbas, pay a terrible price and indirectly fund not their war. At the minute these are losses of hundreds of billions of PLN. Drożyna, immense inflation, forcing the acquisition of incredible amounts of weapons abroad at the price of the Bajorans are killing the economy anyway. The tremendous cost of surviving has become unbearable and for most entrepreneurs it is unbearable. Ida waves of redundancies and closures of enterprises. Additionally, there is simply a day and night agitation of major media encouraging Poles to follow in the footsteps of Ukraine and join the war with Russia.
Undoubtedly, 1 of the main reasons for this situation is the deep penetration of Poland through Ukrainian peculiar services, which have managed to impose on Poles the costs of war and to usage it in all possible way. Despite the fact that the anti-Russian communicative and espionage, as has already been mentioned, has been altered by all the crimes, it must be said that the Russian Federation is not the beneficiary of the "gifted" Polish property, but of the Ukrainian state, its services, the army and millions of citizens. It was the services of “Invisible” that won Polish assets for their country, for Ukraine.
Diversification and sabotage
There is yet another – very dangerous – aspect of Ukraine's intelligence activity in Poland, namely diversion and sabotage – which can be manifested in arsons, intimidations or even killings uncomfortable to Ukrainians of Polish citizens. That this is truly happening – we can see well in Russia, where assassination attacks affect both Russians and uncomfortable Kiev Ukrainian regime. We know cases. Daria Dugina, or an MP of the Ukrainian Ila Kiwa, who were brutally murdered on orders from the authorities. Ukrainian intelligence was active in the mass execution of Crocus Hall civilians close Moscow, according to all probability. We must be aware that specified cases are besides possible in Poland, and it will most likely be easy to get possible contractors of dirty work among millions admitted, without any control, Ukrainians. Prime Minister Donald Tusk late confirmed that Ukrainians in Poland were caught burning down key Polish companies, but of course the Prime Minister blamed these cases on the work of Russian intelligence.
As long as Ukrainian force structures are aimed at conflict with Russia and treat Poles as the alleged "soul" in addition to the "soft haircut" of resources, we do not yet experience strong aggression and physical hostility. But it is not impossible, as the mainstream media curse us in all way. In the face of the collapse of Ukrainian statehood and the change of the geopolitical paradigm, Poland may face a dramatic situation, related to the existence of the Ukrainian militarism described above and the collapse of the current home political body in Ukraine. Different scenarios are possible here, in which Poland will be the main actor.
Screenplays
The best solution for us is, of course, the full annihilation of the force component in Ukraine referring to the cult of Bandera and Szuchewych. This is entirely real as a consequence of Russia's expected triumph and the demilitarisation of the Ukrainian state's hull, which will most likely be built on the remains of "Unzawiss". Demilitarized Ukraine – a deficiency of independent force centre in Kiev – means peace at our east borders and no external obstacles to establishing direct relations between Poland and Russia, Belarus and China. Draining Polish resources of the Ukrainian agentura then clashes right action, or will be forced to emigrate.
Another script to consider in connection with the envisaged collapse of Ukraine is the military coup and the power of those who want to scope an agreement with Russia. The surviving structures of force in order to deepen their relation with the fresh ally and, at the same time, to justify to society the tremendous losses on Donbasa may search revenge in the Polish state by accusing them of contributing to the push of Ukraine into the war. In the event of a war with Poland – Ukraine will fulfil to Russia the same function of strategical bumper as it presently fulfils to the US, but the other turn and direction.
If this were to happen, let us be honest – Poland has no chance to halt Ukrainian aggression. With about 60,000 infantry, a fistful of aircraft and armored equipment, Poland will not be able to withstand up to 2 weeks of equivalent combat against 800 1000 mobilized Ukrainian troops with support of nearly 2 million Ukrainians surviving in Poland and expected deliveries from Russia. It is not essential to say that specified a conflict means a complete part of Polish state and a revision of existing borders besides in the West. The German army will make a sanitary cordon in western and northern Poland, alternatively under the influence of the defeats of the Polish troops. It is not essential to say that specified a script means the full demolition of Polish lands and the desuverenisation of the state.
Another – the most likely script (forged by Macron and Zelenski) assumes the reaction of NATO states to the decision of Russian troops on Donbas and the selective introduction of NATO troops into Ukraine – first alleged instructors and then regular alliance forces. Poles enter Western Ukraine and safe the erstwhile Galicia. This script besides means a direct clash with the Russian army and Poland's vulnerability to retaliation attacks. He besides carries the hazard of a war going on throughout Poland, especially in Kaliningrad and Podlasie. It is besides possible to usage tactical atomic weapons. Russia will not hesitate to respond with an absolute consequence to the military upheaval threatening the state. In specified a script Poland will become another theatre of war, where the main conflict between the West and East will take place. For Poles it is complete demolition and complete demolition in the biological dimension.
It is not essential to explain in item to anyone that Poland is completely unprepared for any war, even any days. We're moving out of basic components. There is no organized civilian defence, no shelters and no retention facilities for civilian protection. Our military does not have adequate weapons, and in the last 2 years it has been defused with 50% of equipment and ammunition (the work of Ukrainian agentship), we besides see immense shortages of personnel due to the wave of departure in the Polish army. We besides do not have an entirely industrial base allowing longer war to be waged. Therefore, the most beneficial option for us is the 1 in which neither the military nor citizens will be drawn into war and threatening Ukrainian militarism will be annihilated. This is our only chance to last without major losses.
Where's the enemy, where's the ally?
I realize that for many lovers of Ukraine these are painful statements, but certain geopolitical regulations are unchanged. Poland is behind a tiny player in the global sphere to hazard the existence of the state and the lives of citizens so much as a consequence of “love to Ukraine”. We must think first of all about ourselves and our children, about the simple endurance of the state. It is so average that our fundamental national interests are in this case in line with Russian interests, and even if we consider it to be “honorable”, there is nothing we can do about it. This is how our geographical location determines us and limits the size of our strategical resources. We cannot so proceed to play the function of a good uncle and advocate of Ukraine, due to the fact that we have already devoted a large deal of our reserves completely pointlessly, exposing the state's nave to the anger of the atomic power and a key trading partner for decades, on which our economy and energy safety depend. The scale of our foolishness implies that all our "consecrations" were made... for our main economical and more geopolitical rival Ukraine.
You can't go that way anymore. It's the way to self-destruct. Therefore, now that there are crucial geopolitical decisions in the coming months in the East, let us be able to keep the right distance, effort to realize their meaning, let us not act emotionally. Ukraine is not our homeland, and we are not committed to it at all. It must be explained to the activists that we have no power to change anything in the inevitable course of things. Let us look above all at the interests of our country and our community, let us be exceptionally assertive. That's actual patriotism.
Peter Panasiuk
Photo: Wikipedia
Think Poland, No. 25-26 (16-23.06.2024)
