In the second circular of Brazilian presidential election held on 30 October 2022, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (born 1945) from the Workers organization (ported as Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT), defeated incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro (born 1955) from the Liberal organization (ported as Partido Liberal, PL). L. I. Lula da Silva won 50.9% of the votes (60.345 million votes), J. Bolsonaro 49.1% of the votes (58.206 million votes). President-elect's office is announced for January 1, 2023.
Marginal Victory
L. I. Lula da Silva won in the western and northern states, winning the most votes in Bahia, Piaui, Cear and Maranhão, somewhat little in Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíbie, Pernambuco and Sergipe, besides winning in Alagoas, Minas Gerais, Tocantins, Para and Amazonas. J. Bolsonaro recorded the highest scores in Rondônia, Acra and Roraima, somewhat lower in Mato Grosso, Parana and Santa Catarina, besides winning in Amap, Goiás, national District, Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Espiritu Santo and Rio Grande do Sul.
The difference between candidates in the second circular was only 2 million votes, which is the smallest difference in the past of the Brazilian presidential election from the restitution of demoliberalism in 1985. besides the forecasts of the results of the first circular conducted on October 2 did not work, due to the fact that contrary to the polls. L. I. Lula da Silva did not win an absolute majority, reaching only 48.4% of the vote (J. Bolsonaro won 43.2% of the vote). This gives emergence to suspicion that J. Bolsonaro, who has not so far congratulated the opponent of victory, may question the result of the election.
On the another hand, L. I. Lula da Silva's score in the first circular is the second highest score in PT history, giving way only to L. I. Lula da Silva's 2006 score. In turn, J. Bolsonaro is the first in the past of Brazil to hold a president who has not repeated his word of office since the 1997 constitutional fresh allowed this.
Foreign congratulations
The President-elect has so far congratulated president Alberto Fernández and Vice president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, president of Chile Gabriel Boric, president of Mexico Andrés Manuel López Obrador (he expressed hope that there would be “equality and humanism”), president of Venezuela Nicolás Maduro (“Let the people who are destined to freedom, sovereignty and independency live! present triumphs over Brazilian democracy.), president of Colombia Gustavo Petro, president of Bolivia Louis Arce (Your triumph strengthens democracy and Latin American integration), president of Cuba Miguel Díaz Canel (Congratulations on victories for “unity, peace and Latin American and Caribbean integration”) president of Peru Pedro Castillo (His triumph is essential to strengthen the unity of Latin America and social justice of the large Homeland).
The winners of L. I. Luli da Silvie besides congratulated China's leader Xi Jinping (said hope for the improvement of "strategic and long-term plans" and "increased comprehensive strategical partnership to a higher level", hoping that the deepening of bilateral cooperation would service "the preservation of regional and planet peace and stability, and the promotion of universal improvement and prosperity"), Russia's leader Vladimir Putin (said hope for further improvement of relations, stressed that Russia had a good relation with both L. I. Lula da Silva and J. Bolsonaro), India's leader Narendra Modi, German Chancellor, French President, Italian Prime Minister, Spanish Prime Minister, president and Prime Minister of Portugal, advanced typical of the EU for abroad Affairs and safety Policy, US President, Prime Minister of the United States, Prime Minister of Canada, Prime Minister of Australia, Prime Minister of Japan, Prime Minister of Japan, Prime Minister and Minister of abroad Affairs of fresh Zealand. Congratulations with the invitation of the fresh president of Brazil to visit Poland besides appeared on the website of the president of Poland.
Lula's way to the presidency
For L. I. Lula da Silva, the current presidential election was the sixth in his political career: he ran unsuccessfully in 1989, 1994 and 1998 to yet take office in 2002 and win the 2006 elections again. In 2010, however, the president was supported by him and previously employed in his administration Dilma Rousseff, who repeated her word of office in 2014, in 2016 she was subjected to impeachment on charges of participating in the Odebrecht corruption scandal, and was succeeded by the unpopular Michel Temer.
In 2017, L. I. Lula da Silva was besides convicted of corruption under prosecutor Sergio Moro's anti-corruption operation "Myjnia" (porto. Operação Lava Jato – the name derives from the conviction of car wash workers washing dirty money, from which the investigation began) and was stripped of his political rights, although he conducted pre-election polls. In the 2018 presidential election, PT staged a little-known mera São Paulo Fernando Haddad, who lost to moles with J. Bolsonaro. In 2019, however, L. I. Lula da Silva was released from prison and political rights were restored to him in 2021, which immediately made him the favourite of the 2022 election.
Foreign Policy J. Bolsonaro
The presidency of J. Bolsonaro was even grotesque enthusiasm for the US and Israel, accompanied by the dislike of China, Iran and Palestine to delight Washington and Tel Aviv. J. Bolsonaro besides showed sympathy for Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and then ruled by the right-wing Italy. He besides referred to Russia by encouraging Vladimir Putin to join the Western Conservative coalition. In fresh months of his presidency, J. Bolsonaro dismissed his Vice president Hamilton Murão for his message that Brazil condemns Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In 2019, Brazil recognized Juan Guaidó as the legitimate president of Venezuela.
J. Bolsonaro's position marked a clear hostility towards Mercosur (South Common marketplace – Spanish Mercado Común del Sur, established in 1991 in Asunción the economical block of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay), although he yet did not decide to decision Brazil out of that organization. For his presidency, Brazil besides took an aggressive course towards Venezuela and Cuba, seeking NATO membership and US military base on its territory to counter Russia's influence in Latin America. At Washington's request, Brazil rejected the acquisition of the Russian vaccine Sputnik V, but after replacing Donald Trump as president of the United States, J. Bolsonaro met with Vladimir Putin to discuss the establishment of a Russian-Brazilian consortium for the production of Sputnik V in Brazil and the comprehensive improvement of relations between Russia and Brazil.
Internal policy J. Bolsonaro
Equally controversial and ineffective were the interior actions of the Brazilian President. In 2019, he left his home Social-Liberal organization (ported as Partido Social Liberal, PSL), following a series of conflicts with its leader Luciano Bivar, which caused a wave of resignation among members of his administration. The effort to establish his own conservative organization Alliance for Brazil (port. Aliança pelo Brasil) failed and in 2021 J. Bolsonaro joined PL.
Finally, in the 2022 election, J. Bolsonaro launched with the support of PL, conservative-green Republicans (port. Republicanos) and technocratic "party of power" (supported almost all presidential administrations, were the center of the Odebrecht affair) Progressives (port. Progressisas). His home PSL in October 2021 merged with right-wing liberal Democrats (port Democrats, DEM), forming the Union of Brazil (port União Brasil) which won 9,31% of the vote and 59 seats in the 513-member Chamber of Deputies.
Military crisis 2021
Partly denialistic and partially chaotic pitching and affronting J. Bolsonaro's policy on the COVID-19 epidemic led him to an acute conflict with the authorities of certain states of Brazil, specified as São Paulo. State authorities introduced traffic and transport blockades which J. Bolsonaro opposed in the name of saving the economy. Against state authorities, the president tried to appeal to the ultimate national Court, however, he supported the state authorities. After J. Bolsonaro attempted unsuccessfully to send troops to the Court, to introduce a state of emergency and martial law, on March 29, 2021 he resigned as yet blocking the political engagement of the army of the National Defence Minister Gen. (retired) Fernando Azawedo e Silva, citing Walter Braga Netto as his replacement. In response, the commanders of the land forces, aviation and the Brazilian military fleet resigned on March 30. On March 31, the President, in order to prevent the escalation of the crisis, appointed successors to retired officers, not from among his supporters but from candidates following the elder line, who, however, protested his policies.
Amazon
J. Bolsonaro besides harmed his climate policy and supporting the cut-out of equatorial forests in the Amazon and the land take of its indigenous peoples. Most of the abroad congratulatory posts for J. I. Lula da Silva express their hope of effective cooperation in countering the demolition of the Amazon and the president-elect's announcements besides go in this direction. As shortly as his win was announced, L. I. Lula da Silva announced that "Brazil is ready to regain its leading function in the fight against the climate crisis", peculiarly through the protection of the Amazon. On Twitter, the president-elect can be found the announcement of a simplification in Amazonian deforestation to zero. "Brazil and our planet request a surviving Amazon," states the president-elect.
During J. Bolsonaro's presidency, 180% (from 109 cases in 2018 to 305 cases in 2022) increased the number of acts of force by farmers, cattle shepherds, lumberjacks, miners and poachers against the indigenous peoples of Brazil. These attacks affected 226 indigenous territories in 22 states of Brazil, in which present 800,000 indigenous Americans live in 300 tribal groups. On the another hand, on 31 October supporting J. Bolsonaro truck drivers and passenger cars blocked roads in the agricultural state of Mato Grosso and in at least 12 another states – including Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo. The issue of the collision of environmental goods with economical interests has proved to be 1 of the most pressing in the electoral run and will stay so in subsequent years.
Typed as Minister of Environment in the L. I. Lula da Silva Marina Silva administration announced on 31 October that Brazil would send representatives to the COP27 climate summit organised by the UN in Egypt. The transfer of USD 575 million to Brazil to counter the demolition of the Amazon announced Norway. $20 billion promised to hand over the US. According to M. Silva Brazil, during its 3rd term, Luli da Silva is besides expected to reduce methane and carbon dioxide emissions and to hold in 2023 a conference of the Amazon and Western countries on the rescue of rainforests. Brazil is to establish a peculiar state climate institution to coordinate the activities of the various departments in this area.
Position on abortion
L. I. Luli da Silva's position on abortion is alternatively vague, for in April he advocated her admissibility, in view of the negative reception of his words, but on October 19 he stated that he was against her: “I am not the only 1 against abortion, but besides all the women I married (sic!) are against abortion. And I think almost everyone is against abortion. Not only due to the fact that we are protectors of life, but besides due to the fact that it must be very unpleasant and painful for individual – to have an abortion.”
A small more light on the position of president-elect casts analysis of his statements on this issue from his next election campaigns. All of them can be brought back to the conclusion that L. I. Lula da Silva privately – as a ‘husband’, ‘father of 5 children’, ‘catholic’, ‘Christian’, ‘conservative’ (sic! – as defined in 2016) is against abortion. However, as president of the Republic, he believes that "this should be done in public health" and "everyone should have the right to do so and not be ashamed of it." The president-elect so takes a position typical of most abortion supporters and should be considered 1 of them.
Violence
J. I. Luli da Silva's views on economical policy are located in the social-liberal mainstream (port Lulismo). Lulism is simply a reformism aiming at a gradual structural social change to enable de facto excluded from the national economical organism's poorness social promotion to the mediate class and integration into the national community. At the same time, it stresses the importance of macroeconomic stability, marketplace reliability and state redistribution. It aims to gain assurance in both native and abroad capital and to attract the support of the poor. Vulism powerfully opposes the thought of "class struggle" and seeks a compromise with capital, in the name of expanding the market's scope to include those excluded from it so far.
On the basis of lulism, the thought of political organisation and mobilization is rejected, as the change is to be made within the legal and state order and to be animated from the top. The capital is to be a co-worker of the State, in return retaining most of the profits and freedom of activity. L. I. Lula da Silva during his presidency (2002-2010) led to reconciliation with the Brazilian conservative sector, continuing the macroeconomic stableness policy of president Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2002), supplementing it with redistribution. It was utilized not only by mediocre people but besides by banks, craftsmen and merchants, while Brazil became the seventh economy of the planet in 2010 (now it is thirteenth).
The starting point for lalism is the presumption of predictability and reliability of macroeconomic indicators and transparency of state rules and policies to give capital a sense of security. Inflation is to be under control, smooth exchange rates and budget surpluses are to be maintained. Not all of these assumptions have been achieved, as evidenced by the monstrous and state-wide scandal of Odebrecht. besides rising for the presidency of D. Rousseff (2011-2016) inflation undermined the foundations of lolism. The actual liberalisation of labour law in 2017 under Michel Temer's regulation (2016-2018) meant a real departure from lolism.
Economic challenges
In his 3rd word L. I. Lula da Silva will gotta cope with the negative effects of the COVID-19 epidemic in the form of inflation (8.59%), unemployment (8.7%), slowdown in economical growth (3.2%) and industrial production (1.4%). Road blocks by supporters of J. Bolsonaro in at least 12 states of Brazil may jeopardise the export of agricultural produce and undermine the country's marketplace credibility. Overall, however, indicators describing the economical situation of the country do not look bad.
L. I. Lula da Silva's triumph was besides met with a alternatively friendly consequence of western capital: Brazilian real gained 2% against US dollar, Bovespa's index at the end of the session was 1.3%, measuring the number of 48 large and medium-sized Brazilian companies, the MSCI index rose by 4%. Goldman Sachs points out in his analysis that the policy of income support and debt restructuring announced by the President-elect will foster interior consumption, which is simply a pillar of the Brazilian economy. “Appliances” to reality will increase interest rate differences and comparatively low share prices. Expected as future Minister of Finance and Budget Planning, Alexandre Padilha is well received by stock speculators.
Meridianism
In the abroad policy L. I. Lula da Silva announces strengthening relations with Mercosur, Unasur (Union of the South American Nations Hisp. Unión de Nacionales Suramericanas) and Celac (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, Spanish Comunidad de Estados Latinoamericanos e Caribeños), returning to cooperation with Latin American, Caribbean and African countries. His position should so be placed in the context of the fresh 20th anniversary of "merdonialism", a direction in the Brazilian geopolitical thought that advocates a retreat from the Atlantic and the US and NATO relations towards building Brazil's position in the polycentric planet and based on continental South American integration. The request for a permanent place for Brazil in the UN safety Council and its support for BRICS corresponds to this.
Wind of Change
The triumph of L. I. Luli da Silva seales the “turn to the left” (Spanish marea rosa) changing the political scenery of Latin America. This trend began with Venezuela along with the presidents of Hugo Chávez (1999-2013) and Nicolás Maduro (since 2013). another countries that included: Colombia – Gustavo Petro (since 2022); Peru – Pedro Castillo (since 2022); Bolivia – Evo Morales (2006-2019), Louis Arce (since 2020); Chile – Gabriel Boric (since 2019); Argentina – Néstor Kirchner (2003-2007), Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (2007-2015), Alberto Fernández (since 2019); Panama – Laurentino Cortizo (since 2019); Nicaragua – Daniel Ortega (since 2007); Honduras – Xiomara Castro (since 2022); Mexico – Andrés Manuel López Obrador (since 2018), Cuba – Miguel Díaz Canel (since 2019), Dominican Republic – Luis Abinander (since 2020).
Apart from the marea rosa, only Uruguay, Paraguay and Ecuador stay in South America, while Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala stay in Central America. It is besides apparent that the leftist trend has spread to North America: the USA (Joe Biden), Canada (Justin Trudeau) and Greenland (Múte Bourup Egende from the Socialistic-Separatistic Inuit Atagatigit – since 2021). This condition will most likely not be without influence on the directions of improvement of Latin American civilization and the situation throughout the Western Hemisphery.
Ronald Lasecki
