The second circular of the presidential election is behind us. Over 20 million 800 1000 Poles decided who would service as head of state from 2025 to 2030.
The election night has given quite a few excitement. The situation for any was funny, for others less. first exit polls pointed to the triumph of Rafał Trzaskowski – the advantage was only 6 percent points: 53 to 47. Trzaskowski and his surroundings decided besides hastily to express their joy and to describe themselves as winners of this presidential skirmish. 2 hours later, erstwhile more precise data from the Late Poll poll appeared, the situation turned around – Karol Nawrocki won. authoritative results confirmed his triumph against 51 to 49 percent.
In absolute figures, the difference between the candidates was about 400 1000 votes – like 5 years ago between Andrzej Duda and Rafał Trzaskowski. This is important, due to the fact that earlier concerns arose that if the difference was minimal – counted in tens of thousands of votes – any political groups might question the outcome. But that did not happen. The Citizens' Coalition and the now ruling centre clearly acknowledged the result of the elections, as confirmed publically by many of its representatives.
There is so nothing in the way that, following the ultimate Court's decision and the announcement of authoritative results by PKW, Karol Nawrocki was sworn in as president. Officially, president Nawrocka will take office in August, as Andrzej Duda's word of office expires.
As for the electorate and the flow of votes, there were no major surprises. After the first round, it was known that Karol Nawrocki had more possible to attract right-wing voters – who had previously voted for Sławomir Mentzen or Grzegorz Braun – than Rafał Trzaskowski to vote for Szymon Hołownia, Magdalena Biejat or Adrian Zandberg, who has been formally outside the governing coalition for months.
There were 2 question marks. What will the cross-section of abroad voices look like? The expectations of Trzaskovsky's staff were advanced – over 200,000 votes were counted. Eventually, the difference was about 160 thousand. Second: how will voters who appear exclusively in the second circular behave? It turned out that the fresh voters had distributed their voices almost equally, with a slight advantage for Trzaskowski – but that was not enough.
Geography of support is not surprising. Karol Nawrocki won in six provinces: Łódź, Lesser Poland, Podkarpackie, Świętokrzyskie, Lubelskie and Podlaskie. But the advantage he achieved in many municipalities of these regions was crushing – frequently 7:3, 8:2, or even 9:1. In comparison, in the voivodships where Trzaskowski prevailed (e.g. Zachodniopomorskie, Lubuskie), his advantage was much more modest.
The age structure besides shows an interesting phenomenon. Karol Nawrocki won in a group of youngest voters (18–30) and among seniors (60+). Trzaskowski gained an advantage in the medieval group (40–60). It is peculiarly amazing if we remember that it was the young voters who contributed to the removal of the PiS from power in October 2023. present any of them returned to the right.
In terms of sex and residence, the consequence was besides predictable: Trzaskowski won in large cities and among women, Nawrocki dominated villages, tiny and average towns and among men.
Personally, I am satisfied due to the fact that my forecasts – besides presented on the air – almost full confirmed. These were 1 of the most hard choices to predict: 1 had to hit both attendance and the winner – and the differences were minimal.
What's next? The win by Karol Nawrocki importantly complicates the situation of the centreleft. On Monday Jarosław Kaczyński proposed the creation of a method government, interpreting the consequence as a yellow card for the current power. Donald Tusk responded briefly but firmly: "No step back." He announced the continuation of reforms and the implementation of electoral promises.
So there's a sharp conflict on the president-government line. Karol Nawrocki has a fresh ticket, Tusk – a ticket from a year and a half ago, just verified by voters. Under these circumstances, neither side can go back. The centre can't lay down its weapons, due to the fact that that would mean the political end. That is why we are likely to have a long period of tension and possibly even an early election.
The question is whether the current parliamentary majority will stay consistent. As we know, it was mainly created to remove the Law and Justice from power. In fresh months, however, alternatively of reforms, we have seen mainly the fight against opposition – besides utilizing state institutions. This message did not talk to voters.
That doesn't mean the centrepiece will vanish from the stage. She will effort to keep unity – despite the immense programme and personnel differences. But in the present situation, it is hard to anticipate that the government's ratings will abruptly improve. We are either facing a slow erosion of this coalition, or a test of force before the 2027 elections.
There is optimism on the right side today. On the centre left side – clear anxiety.
