Nuclear weapons in Belarus what this means for Poland, on cold, the eye of an expert and without unnecessary emotions, noisy comments of war inciters and diletants.
On March 25, the Russian Federation president announced in a tv interview the decision and details of the deployment of Russian atomic weapons in neighbouring Belarus. This has generated a number of public comments and publications, of which the level, I compose it as a erstwhile journalist, a man who has been studying military technology for nearly 40 years, are frequently absurdly incompetent.
What did Putin say?
Let's start with basics, or linguistic explanation – literal of what the Russian president said in a tv interview. The widespread ignorance of Russian language makes me encounter key lies in many articles. He quotes: “We have already helped our Belarusian colleagues adjust their aircraft. 10 aircraft are ready to usage this kind of weapon (nuclear weapon) . We have already moved to Belarus our well-known, very effective complex (operational-tactic rocket launchers) "Iskander", which can besides be a carrier of [tactical atomic weapons]. From 3 April we will begin training crews, and on 1 July we will complete the construction of a peculiar atomic tactical weapons warehouse in Belarus."
What does that mean?
1. The aircraft held by the Belarusian Air Force are MiG-29 front fighters, Su-30 multitasking aircraft, Su-25 assault aircraft and JAK-130 school combat. The 10 most modern Belarusian aircraft, i.e. multipurpose 4++, Su-30SM, were most likely adapted to carry atomic weapons.
During the period of the Polish Air Force Polish Air Force, they besides had specified adapted aircraft, they were Su-7 and then, Su-20 based first in Bydgoszcz and then Powidzu. I had the pleasance of talking to a Polish pilot who saw an atomic bomb detonation during maneuvers. There's been a practice of atomic bomb-throwing.
2. Belarus in 2022 received about 6 9K720 "Iskander-M" rocket launchers. So in a version with 9M723 variable trajectory ballistic missiles with a scope of at least 500 km. As well as the K version with 9M729 maneuvering missiles with a scope of at least 500 km, and possibly 2,500 km. Now they will be given the chance to install atomic warheads on them during the "W" period with Russia's approval.
The 9M723 ballistic rocket can carry a atomic warhead of up to 50 kiloton. The bomb dropped on Hiroshima by the US, "Little Boy", had a strength of 16 kilotons, killed 70-90 1000 residents of the city. What can the head on the Iscander be calculated proportionally.
3. By the end of June, the Russians will build a atomic weapons warehouse in Belarus. It just so happens that for 19 years I lived about 7 km, from 1 of 4 atomic weapons warehouses in Poland during the period of the Polish People's Republic , i.e. the Podborsko base close Białogard, – peculiar Ammunition Magazine (Object 3001). The warehouse holds atomic bombs and atomic warheads for missiles. present you can visit it on your way to the Baltic Sea, a branch of the Museum of Polish Orże in Kołobrzeg.
Returning to Belarus, the warehouse facility may be new, or renovated by the council, and specified in Belarus will not be lacking. What does that change? The diplomats and instigators of war say that nothing due to the fact that the "Russian" atomic rockets had and have been aiming at Poland for ever. As the old folk proverb says, “they do not sow fools, they are born.”
Ladies and gentlemen, the fundamental difference is what they are aiming at and from where. Well, an intercontinental, multi-head rocket, works fundamentally differently. Objects – the silos of these bases are under reflection and preparation for take-off, beginning lids, changing temperature are revealed by the US satellite reconnaissance. There's time for a reaction, an anti-aircraft alarm, etc. There are besides Russian mobile systems like “TOPOL” or “JARS”. OK. But even if they launch a rocket, it flies into space, there it merges, the warheads can be electrocuted by American space weapons systems, they can be destroyed by the American rocket shield strategy – Ballistic rocket defence (BMD) (the installation of 1 module is in Poland under Słupsk in Rędzikow) yet erstwhile they fall they can be theoretically hit by the OPL strategy "Patriot".
What's the difference between "Iskander-M"?
Iskander rocket, according to authoritative data from the Russian army, flies at 2100 m/s or 7560 km/h. To realize the velocity of firing targets in Poland, this projectile is adequate to remind that the distance of 380 km from Pińsk to Warsaw Iskander will beat in about 3 minutes. The head maneuvers with large overloads and is unshootable with modern OPL measures. So the detection won't work, due to the fact that it won't, and it won't.
Is there, then, a difference between the intercontinental rockets and the short-range rocket, the Iskander? For a gaudy ignorant man, no, for an expert, it's essential.
Now let's take a closer look at the 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of atomic Weapons. I remember in law school in global Law class, a lecturer addressing the issue of his comparative violation by the United States. It is the alleged atomic Sharing or NATO atomic Sharing. It is the political concept of the North Atlantic Alliance, which assumes that atomic warheads are made available to NATO-member countries and which do not have them.
The United States, despite the signing of the Agreement, is moving a programme to make weapons available to another NATO countries.
Currently, American atomic weapons are located in the territory of Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Turkey and Italy. During peacetime, it is under the control of American soldiers, but in the event of the outbreak of war it is to be handed over to the state on whose territory it is located. specified actions are contrary to the principles of the Agreement, although NATO states disagree with this opinion.
On the same principle, atomic weapons will now be made available to the Belarusians during the “W” period. Nothing fresh or undiscovered here, Moscow will do what Washington has long done.
Today, American atomic weapons in Europe are:
– Belgium base Kleine Brogel 701 squadron 52d Fighter Wing, carrying bombs has adapted fo of this 10 wing of Belgian aircraft F-16. about 20 atomic bombs,
– Germany Büchel base 702 squadron 52d Fighter Wing, hosts 33 squadron Luffaffe Bundeswehr. about 20 atomic bombs. There are 55 empty atomic weapons shelters in Ramstein.
-Spandahlem – U.S. Air Base F-16C/D aircraft with 480 fighter squadron 52 USF wings
– The Netherlands base Volkel 703 squadron 52d Fighter Wing, about 20 atomic bombs, carriers are F-16 312 and 313 squadrons of the Royal Netherlands Air Force (Koninklijk Luchtmacht)
– Turkey's large Incirlik Air Base magazine deals with the American 39th Air Base Wing, with about 60 atomic bombs assembled here. There utilized to be F-111 bombers based here, now there's no solid U.S. Air Force, and there are periodically re-ranched aircraft. But atomic bombs stay in 21 hidden WS3-type safe houses.
– Italy – Aviano Air Base, about 20 atomic bombs were struggling, carrying US F-16 C/D 555 and 510 squadrons 31 Fighter Wings.
In conclusion, as of July, the Belarusian Armed Forces in the event of an armed conflict will have atomic weapons at their disposal on short-range rocket and maneuvering rockets as well as atomic bombs for Su-30SM aircraft. However, the decision to usage the weapon will be in Russian hands. Will the Russians, the current leadership of the Russian state usage weapons?
The doctrine of utilizing Russian atomic weapons assumes 2 options. usage as a consequence to a atomic attack on Russia (or union state). (at least a terrible stroke) or in a conventional conflict in the event of a threat to Russia's existence. Will the current Russian president hesitate? According to many Polish politicians and commentators, Russia will not usage atomic weapons. Maybe. In turn, I am reminded of specified moments of tv interview of 2018 Putin with editor Vladimir Solowov when, erstwhile asked that atomic war means the end of civilization, the end of the planet and will the president not hesitate? Putin, on second thought, replied: “As a Russian citizen and head of the Russian state, I would like to ask – why do we request specified a planet if Russia ceases to exist? ”
So is yesterday's declaration by the president of Russia regarding the deployment of 2023 tactical atomic weapons in Belarus irrelevant to Poland or irrelevant? Draw your own conclusions.
POK (Internet)
